Like any UFC fight card, UFC 101 features some big favorites and some big underdogs on the card. The key for bettors, especially those who like to chase the long-shot wins, is to distinguish between legit and foolish underdog plays. Into which category does Forrest Griffin fall?

However, just because you like Griffin doesn’t mean you should bet with your heart at UFC 101. Unlike Kenny Florian, Griffin is a trap pick as an underdog. He simply isn’t better than Anderson Silva in any major area. It’s not because Griffin is a bad fighter; Silva is just that good.

Is Forrest Griffin fast for a 205 pounder? Sure he is. But Anderson Silva is among the fastest fighters the sport has ever known. His ability to pick opponents apart and land surgical strikes reminds us of Floyd Mayweather. His amazing evasive skills, which allow him to dodge punches simply by bobbing his head, are reminiscent of Muhammad Ali.

What about punching power? Sorry, Griffin fans. Because he’s a big brawler, there’s a misconception that Griffin has power. He doesn’t. Just two of his 16 wins are knockouts. Anderson Silva doesn’t have one-punch knockout power per se, but he can bludgeon opponents with his kicks and knees from the Muay Thai clinch.

On the ground, Griffin has respectable Jiu-Jitsu, but Silva’s is even better. The only real hope Griffin has is that he can overpower Silva using his slightly bigger frame. If he can get on top of Silva and lean on him, he could control the pace of the fight.

We know Griffin will make Silva work harder than Patrick Cote or Thales Leites did, but that won’t be enough. As Dan Henderson and Rich Franklin proved, that only seems to bring out the best in Silva. It’s smart betting management to avoid Griffin in UFC 101 online wagering.