It’s the betting primer to beat the NFL point spread with winning NFL picks.
Dolphins vs. Falcons
Handicapping notes: If preseason means anything, the Falcons secondary could be in trouble. Bob Warner of the football betting blog Lines-Maker.com says that “that unit was the biggest disappointment of any team” in the preseason.
Against the spread records: Miami has covered five straight as road underdogs, while Atlanta has covered 9-of-11 in the opening week.
Over/under angles: Atlanta has gone over 10-3 on field turf
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Lions vs. Saints
Handicapping notes: Detroit of course is coming off the first ever 0-16 straight up season. Now rookie QB Matt Stafford makes his first NFL start on the road for Detroit. Detroit has 31 new players and of course a new coaching staff. He debuts against a defensive coordinator Greg Williams who loves to blitz.
RB Pierre Thomas is out for the Saints. He is supposed to be the perfect compliment for one dimensional Reggie Bush. Saints TE Jeremy Shockey is probable. However he missed practice Friday and as quirky as he is, we will keep an eye on his last-minute status.
Against the spread records: The Lions have covered six straight road games. They are 13-3 as double digit dogs. On the other hand, Detroit is 1-9 on field turf.
Over/under angles: Detroit has gone over 13-3 as double digit road underdogs. The Saints have gone over 11-1 at home.
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Broncos vs. Bengals
Handicapping notes: With all the talk about the Bengals wide receivers and QB Carson Palmer, note that Cincinnati has a deep running game led by Cedric Benson. Likewise, Denver will be deep if Knowshon Moreno is healthy enough to get 10 or so touches. One of the most overlooked RBs in the league is newcomer Correll Buckhalter. Oft injured, he has averaged 4.9 yards per carry over the last two years when he does suit up.
Bengals starting QB Carson Palmer gets the start, but it’s been about a year since he was truly tested in a regular season game situation.
Denver QB Kyle Orton is also probable despite stitches on his throwing hand. Brandon Marshall is expected to play following his suspension for acting like a moron. Broncos rookie RB Knowshon Moreno is a game time decision.
Against the spread records: Denver is on a 10-29 skid overall, 9-25 on grass. Cincinnati is 3-9 to the AFC.
Over/under angles: Denver has gone over 22-9 on grass. The Bengals have gone under 8-of-10 at home.
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Jets vs. Texans
Handicapping notes: Rookie QB Mark Sanchez makes his debut on the road. It also starts the Rex Ryan era in New York. He takes over as head coach. Temperatures are expected to be well above 80-degrees, which should benefit the home team. Quite aware of this, Houston breaks out their all-white uniforms. They are 12-4 straight up the last two years at home.
The Jets play their hated rivals New England next week. The Texans WR Kevin Walter will test his hamstring injury in warm-ups. Signs point towards him being probable but limited.
Against the spread records: The Jets are 6-1 as road underdogs but they’ve lost five straight overall. Houston is 6-1 their last seven overall.
Over/under angles: Houston has gone over six straight in September.
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Jaguars vs. Colts
Handicapping notes: This is the first of three playoff teams that Jacksonville plays in the first four games. “Jacksonville consistently plays the Colt passing game better than any team in the league,” says the top NFL betting expert Mike Godsey of GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com. He says their physical style has contained the WRs.
Indianapolis‘ top priority in the offseason was to work on the run defense. Jacksonville RB Maurice Jones-Drew averaged 6.3 yards against Indy as three of his seven 100 yard games have been against them.
Conversely, Colts QB Peyton Manning is 11-4 straight up to Jacksonville. Jags QB David Garrard was sacked 42 times last year and has two rookie tackles protecting him. They added WR Torry Holt as a weapon in the offseason. Indy has won 59 of their last 73 regular season games. Colts run stopper S Bob Sanders is out.
Against the spread records: Jacksonville has lost six straight to the AFC.
Over/under angles: The Jags have gone over 8-3 as underdogs of 3.5-10 points.
Eagles vs. Panthers
Handicapping notes: Carolina was 8-0 at home last year by 15.4 points per game. Philadelphia is without two starting offensive linemen Shawn Andrews and Todd Herremans. Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart will play, but will likely be limited. D’Angelo Williams and he combined to be the most prolific 1-2 punch last year among NFL running backs.
Eagles RB Brian Westbrook missed the preseason but will play. His role will be reduced this year as LeSean McCoy will get a lot of touches.
Against the spread records: Philadelphia is 3-11 as a favorite of three or less, including 1-7 on the road. Carolina is 11-5 on grass.
Over/under angles: Philly has gone under 41-17 as favorites, while Carolina has gone under 11-2 in the opening week. Carolina has gone over 7-1 to the NFC, yet under 22-8 in September.
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Chiefs vs. Ravens
Handicapping notes: The Ravens were pass heavy in the preseason, but will go back to a run oriented offense. However it is likely they will open it up more than last year. Ray Rice starts at RB but Baltimore will have a three man committee with Willis McGahee and Le’Ron McClain.
Don’t expect Baltimore to overlook KC as last year they were 6-0 against teams with a losing record. The margin of victory was 17.5 points per game. KC starting QB Matt Cassel at a game time decision.
The Chiefs Larry Johnson is the last RB to get at least 100 yards against the Ravens.
Check out the last minute updates on Lines-Maker.com for Chiefs QB Matt Cassel. He is a game time decision.
Against the spread records: Kansas City is 8-0 as double digit road underdogs. The Ravens are 7-1 favorites. They are 37-15 as home favorites.
Over/under angles: KC has gone under 12-3 in September, while Baltimore has gone under 9-2 in the opening week.
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Vikings vs. Browns
Handicapping notes: Minnesota will be able to break in Brett Favre easily as this is the first of a three-game stretch that includes three teams that have had a combined one winning season in the last six. Detroit and San Francisco assure it’s no look-ahead.
Though Browns head coach Eric Mangini has not officially confirmed, all sources say Brady Quinn will be the Browns starting QB.
Cleveland‘s leading rusher in the preseason James Davis was in a one-car accident Saturday and is questionable. He was expected to be part of the rotation after getting 7.8 yards per carry on 24 preseason carries. Two other running back, Jerome Harrison is questionable and Cedric Peerman doubtful.
Cleveland starting CB Eric Wright is questionable.
Against the spread records: Minnesota 2-6 as road favorites. Cleveland has dropped seven straight on grass.
Over/under angles: Minnesota has gone under five straight as road favorites.
Cowboys vs. Buccaneers
Tampa has a new coaching staff and has changed their offensive coordinator twice since the end of last season. Dallas led the league in sacks defensively last year and faces one of the most immobile QBs in the NFL in Byron Leftwich.
Two defenders for Tampa will be making their first start and another just his seventh.
Against the spread records: The Pokes are 5-1 their last six as favorites. Tampa is 10-1 as home underdogs of 3.5-10 points and 17-5 as home underdogs. The home team has covered five straight in the series.
Over/under angles: Dallas has gone over 17-8 on the road.
Information compiled by OffshoreInsiders.com