Your free pick winner for Thursday comes from Matt Rivers. It’s on the Giants minus 1 ½ runs at SportsBook.

Matt says: When I say this is a bottom of the barrel comp play I mean this is a bottom of the barrel comp play. To lay a run and a half with the mediocre at the very best San Francisco offense against a decent enough sinkerballer in Derek Lowe is asking a lot. Plus one never fully knows which Tim Lincecum will show up each start. But with that said “The Freak” is still a top-notch hurler and better than Lowe, even if not completely on his game.

I would say that these offenses overall are fairly similar in that neither is all that good. Losing Chipper, Prado and a few others has hurt Bobby Cox’ club and right now besides young Jason Heyward and Brian McCann the Bravos don’t have too many threats. Omar Infante has had a nice little season but he is still Omar Infante and therefore I don’t see the boys from the Atl exactly getting off with the bats.

Buster Posey is a total stud and with a few others by the Bay and the potential of Lincecum in a small play I will back the G-Men. If the two time Cy Young award winner brings his A-game then this is a total bargain. I’m not all that sure that will happen so this is a small play. But the Bravos have not been very good away from Turner Field all season long and with the way they come limping into this thing I’ll back that Freak.

The pick: San Francisco -1.5.

For more information: Matt Rivers has a very solid 2-1 day on Wednesday with the 300,000* Phillies minus 1 ½ runs plus a little along with the 200,000* Yankees. I certainly didn’t predict the Halladay no-no but I’ll take it for sure. 400,000* of profit yesterday and the run is up to right around 3.5 million* of profit in a tad less than the last month.

Two more rock solid locks today and note your times as the game from the Trop goes early. 300,000* Texas-Tampa Bay plus a 200,000* Nebraska-Kansas State. 2-0 sweep? Another 300,000* winner leads the way. Maybe another 300,000* no-hitter? Probably not but a winner nonetheless. Click now to purchase

BetUs has some groovy prop bets on this game:

It’s the football betting examination in collating key success indicators form a betting point of view on the matchup between Nebraska vs. Kansas State.

Commencing with the yards per carry data, the higher rated offense is Nebraska by 1.9 yards per rush, though totals plays will want to note that both teams are outstanding running the pigskin.

On the same side of the line of scrimmage, yards per reception gives the upper hand to the Huskers by 1.6.

Sharp football bettors exploit yards per point. The more productive unit with the ball in their hands is also the Big Red by .5.

We differentiate the information on defense in a moment but first of all, the biggest sports handicapper betting pick in the handicapping industry on this game is the Power of 620 sports services behind every selection, the MasterLockLine. First get a Sports service out of Galveston Bay is widely considered the top Big 12 expert. They are 12^th in units won college football this century. NCAA Game of the Week Nebraska/Kansas State.

Service out of the southeast is without any debate the top big play service since summer of 2009 with big plays. Their biggest play is a Deposit Slip in which they average less than two per week. College and pro Deposit Slips are 7-2 this season. First time all season and just sixth time in two years a Deposit Slip is on college football total Nebraska/Kansas State. Click now to purchase or for more information and a free pick

In stopping rushing attacks, the higher ranked defense according to rushing yards per attempt is NU by a full yard.

The stingier defense in terms of yards per pass catch would be, yep against Nebraska by 1.5.

The more disruptive defense making use of yards per point enlightenment is that of the Cornhuskers as well by 3.1.

On the better side of turnover ratio is neither team, as they are dead even.

Yards per point is determined by diving total yards by number of points. Offensively a lower number is considered more efficient. On defense, a higher number is better.

A Category 5 Vegas scores and odds sports betting pick alert has been releases for the Alabama Birmingham vs. Central Florida.

The NCAA point spread for this contest has UCF laying 11.5, but if taking the underdog, UAB can be had for 12.5.

Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): Blazers are 5-11-2 ATS in their last 18 games in October, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater.

Knights are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss, 5-0 versus an opponent with a losing record, 7-1 conference games, 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. However, the Knights are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week.

Over/under trends: Over is 5-1 in Blazers last 6 games following a ATS win, also over 5-1 overall.

Under is 10-2-1 in Knights last 13 games as a home favorite, under 19-6 on grass.

Top expert pick on this game: ScoresOddsPicks who specializes in football. That’s whey they are in the midst of one of the great, great seasons ever going back to NFX. On a 9-3 tear overall and a stunning 23-10 with the NFLX Hall-of-Fame game with all “named plays” get the UAB/UCF burial now. Not only is it a “named play” but it’s the NCAAF Best Bet of the Week! Click now to purchase

It’s UAB vs. Central Florida on ESPN2.

Here is dissection of the key metrics used by sports betting experts in football handicapping.

The team that is better running the ball according to rushing yards per attempt is Alabama-Birmingham by .9.

Passing yards per completion says the more productive passing squad is also UAB by 1.3.

Betting specialists employ yards per point, a number that on the offensive side of the ball favors UCF by 2.7

Sports betting service with the must-bet football pick is from ScoresOddsPicks who specializes in football. That’s whey they are in the midst of one of the great, great seasons ever going back to NFX. On a 9-3 tear overall and a stunning 23-10 with the NFLX Hall-of-Fame game with all “named plays” get the UAB/UCF burial now. Not only is it a “named play” but it’s the NCAAF Best Bet of the Week! Click now to purchase

Now it’s time to focus on the numbers that the betting counselors cherish from a defensive standpoint. Yards per rush says the tougher defense is Central Florida by a full yard.

In juxtaposing yards per reception statistics, the margin on defense puts the positive checkmark in the column of UCF as well by .8.

The often overlooked yards per point defensive advantage is possessed by Central Florida by a margin of 4.0.

The net turnover ratio edge belongs to UCF by just one.

Yards per point is determined by diving total yards by number of points. Offensively a lower number is considered more efficient. On defense, a higher number is better.

It’s the official sports betting preview of today’s MLB playoffs.  These are compiled by the top totals handicapper Stevie Vincent.

Rangers vs. Rays

Rangers are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record, 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League East. On the other hand, Texas is 11-24 in their last 35 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5, 9-23 in their last 32 games on fieldturf, 1-6 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Rays are 87-41 in their last 128 home games vs. a team with a winning record. 16-5 in Price’s last 21 starts vs. a team with a winning record and 21-7 at home with him. Tampa is 17-5 at home in the series.

From GodsTips, get the 1:35 EST and prime-time MLB sides. Also get the UAB-Central Florida total. We are on a 29-17 tear in football. Remember our only moneyline underdog in that span was Jacksonville +280 beating Indianapolis, so basically your wallet adds two more wins on top of that. Go 3-0 now. Click now to purchase

Reds vs. Phillies

Reds are 18-39 in their last 57 road games vs. a team with a winning record. However,  the Reds are 9-1 in Volquez’ last 10 road starts vs. a team with a winning record, 18-4 in his last 22 starts as an underdog.

Phillies are 12-1 in their last 13 playoff games as a favorite, 10-1 in their last 11 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game, 12-3 in their last 15 playoff home games, 49-19 in their last 68 overall. They are 6-0 at home in the series.

Yankees vs. Twins

Yankees are 48-16 in their last 64 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game, 47-18 in their last 65 vs. American League Central, 14-2 in Sabathia’s last 16 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. On the other hand, the Yankees are 3-8 in their last 11 overall, 0-9 in their last 9 games vs. a left-handed starter,

Twins are 53-24 in their last 77 home games vs. a left-handed starter, 63-30 in their last 93 home games overall. But Minnesota is 1-12 in their last 13 Divisional Playoff games including seven straight home losses, 1-10 in Liriano’s last 11 starts vs. American League East.

Here are today’s MLB betting lines.

The Randy Moss trade reaction is pouring in at WEEI sports radio and the Hub in Boston. Only Diana Taurasi is looking hotter than pro bettors as only the Hoosier lottery is making gamblers more money than the top football handicappers.

Now let’s get to MLB Playoffs picks. Your complimentary winner for Wednesday is from Matt Rivers on the Tampa Bay Rays -128 against Texas

I am not the biggest pro Tampa Bay Rays guy because I do think they have the potential to get beat in this series and the way they have performed down the stretch against bottom feeders in the Orioles and Royals showed just that. But and a big but here, David Price is an absolute beast and in my opinion deserving of the Cy Young award. Sure Cliff Lee is a former winner and a lefty that has a world of upside but I’m not really all that sure what Lee is right now. Things were better in September but all in all the stint in Texas just did not go well for Lee. I’m not sure if the southpaw was expecting to go to New York so that being shipped off to Arlington affected him in a negative way or what but nothing has been all that good. Again, I do admit that we saw glimpses of the old Lee towards the end but I’m just not all that sure if that is fully to be believed or not.

Texas has big boppers and can hit anybody most of the time but I say most and not all because of how dominant Price has been throughout this season. Vlad, Hamilton, Cruz, Young and the Rangers are a powerful lineup that is as scary as anybody. But I also definitely do really like Crawford, Longoria, Pena and the Rays and at home with Price hurling feel they can stack up with Ron Washington’s boppers.

I expect a well pitched game from both Price and Lee but in the end the Tampa lefty has been too consistent and should give us a rock solid seven plus inning performance. Lee may be good but the way he has been over the past few months truly doesn’t give me the confidence that he can match Price right now and in the end I see 5-2 Rays written all over this thing.

For more information: A trio of winners right here led by a 300,000* from Matt Rivers and  the City of Brotherly Love involving the Reds and Phillies. Are we looking at an upset victory for the visitors or a run-line burial for Roy Halladay and his boys? Bonus 200,000* Yankees-Twins and a 100,000* UAB-Central Florida. Right at 3 million* of profit over the last month and about to get better! Click now to purchase

I like it on Facebook: gamblers status is that they like it wherever Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the top sports betting site in the world has his Performance Gap Analysis picks. It’s week 5 NFL trends.

After injuries wreaked havoc in the NFL betting results last week, let’s hope our luck changes in Week 5. Here’s a look at the early-game trends.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 10

Broncos (2-2) vs Ravens (3-1)

The Broncos love to surprise good teams and play them close; they’re 4-1 ATS over their last five against teams with winning records. Then again, the Broncos are also 1-5 ATS over their six against AFC opponents. The hosting Ravens are also 42-18-1 over their last 61 games as a home favorite. Is Ray Rice poised for a huge bounce-back game? Baltimore is 6-1 ATS over its last seven after running for less than 90 yards the previous game.

Giants (2-2) vs Texans (3-1)

Maybe the Giants do better when they’re not expected to win? They’re 8-1-1 over their last 10 ATS as road underdogs of 0.5-3.0 points. But could grass play a factor? The Giants are 1-7 ATS over their last eight on grass whereas the surging Houston Texans are 5-1-1 over their last seven on grass.

Rams (2-2) vs Lions (0-4)

Crazy to think the Rams have a real shot to be over .500 after five weeks. Sam Bradford has them playing with confidence and they’re 7-2 over their last nine ATS after winning straight up by more than 14 points the week before. Betting sharps should also note that the lowly Lions are just 16-36-1 ATS over their last 53 games as a favorite and that six of the Rams’ last seven games have fallen UNDER the total.

Packers (3-1) vs Redskins (2-2)

The Redskins pulled the minor upset on the road last week but sportsbook bettors should tread carefully; they’re just 4-12 ATS over their last 16 home games. Aaron Rodgers’ Packers are 9-3-1 ATS over their last 13 games and 5-2 ATS over their last seven road contests.

Chiefs (3-0) vs Colts (2-2)

These ain’t your granddaddy’s Chiefs. Though they’re 2-7 ATS over the last nine meetings with Indy, they’ve beaten the spread five straight times overall and six times in their last seven road games. The Colts are, however, 5-1 ATS over their last six as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. It’s a tough sports pick to make. This week should tell us a lot about Kansas City’s true identity.

It’s Troy State vs. Middle Tennessee State on ESPN2 odds.

We contrast the key success indicators used by pro bettors against both the college football schedule and in successful wagering on the NFL.

The superior team in terms of rushing yards per attempt on offense is Middle Tennessee State by 1.0,

Also on offense, when it comes to yards per reception the figures give the eminence to Troy by .6.

Vegas sharps exploit yards per point. Data says the more adroit team in that classification is MTSU by a modest .3.

We will look at the other side of the ball in a moment, but where is the football betting experts pick against the spread on this contest? It was New England easily and the over as the Monday Night Best Bet Total of the Month. The pro bettors at ScoresOddsPicks are on a 9-2 overall short-term run with both standard picks and named plays. Get a named play, the Tuesday Night Lock of the Year on Troy and Middle Tennessee State. Click now to purchase

Defensively on yards per rush, the disparity favors it’s Middle Tennessee by .9.

The better team at stopping the air attack according to passing yards per completion is also the Red Raiders by .8.

Yards per point dictates the shrewder defense belongs to MTSU as well, by .7

In net turnovers, the preeminence is Troy by a prohibitive 11.

Yards per point is determined by diving total yards by number of points. Offensively a lower number is considered more efficient. On defense, a higher number is better.

“My reliable sources tell me that Michael Vick is doubtful and he has, “struggled just to put on his clothes,” reports Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the top sports betting site in the world.

While Duffy and Performance Gap Analysis continue to thrive in sports betting, another Vegas insider group is also having one of the best football seasons in terms of betting. ScoresOddsPicks nailed New England easily and the over as the Monday Night Best Bet Total of the Month. The pro bettors at ScoresOddsPicks are on a 9-2 overall short-term run with both standard picks and named plays. Get a named play, the Tuesday Night Lock of the Year on Troy and Middle Tennessee State. The latest point spread winner is up for Tuesday night football.

Here was the latest sweep:

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins – Monday at 8:30 p.m. ET

The Patriots (2-1, 1-2 ATS) 38-30 victory over the Bills. New England failed to cover the 14.5-point spread, and the game served as a microcosm of how this season is likely to go for the Pats: a great offense mixed with a terrible defense. Tom Brady continued his great start in 2010, completing 21 of 27 passes for 252 yards and three touchdowns against the Bills. He’s doing a great job spreading the football around, as seven different players caught passes. Brady was also aided by an improved running game. BenJarvis Green-Ellis rushed 16 times for 98 yards and a touchdown.

The defense, however, is a nightmare. The Pats are allowing a whopping 27 points per outing, and giving up 30 to the Bills is just embarrassing. Ryan Fitzpatrick completed over 70 percent of his passes against the overwhelmed secondary while the ground game racked up 134 yards and averaged 5.6 yards per pop. Last but not least, New England was burned for a touchdown on special teams. There’s no question Brady and Co. are in playoff form, but the “D” has some tremendous catching up to do.

Miami (2-1, 2-1 ATS) lost a 31-23 heartbreaker to the Jets last week (the Dolphins failed to cover as a one-point favorite). The team has nobody to blame but itself, especially after Chad Henne drove the Dolphins inside the 20-yard-line with seconds remaining. Despite managing to tie the game up, Henne should be applauded for a great game. He threw for a career high 363 yards and added a pair of touchdown passes. That said, the coaching staff could do a better job balancing the offense. Henne had 44 pass attempts, while running backs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams combined for just 18 carries (for 82 yards). Running the football is Miami’s bread and butter, so expect to see more of that on Monday night.

The Dolphins were exposed in a few areas on defense in last week’s loss to New York. Tight end Dustin Keller had a great day, racking up 98 yards and two touchdowns. The Pats have utilized a pair of rookie tight ends very well this season—Aaron Hernandez and Ron Gronkowski have combined for 18 catches for 269 yards and two touchdowns—so that will be a factor in tonight’s game.

There are some nice match ups for the Patriots to exploit in this one, particularly at tight end. Miami is going to rack up some points and you’re best bet is to take the over on the total. Look for Brady to continue his fine season, outduel Henne, and lead the Pats to a shootout victory.

The over is the Monday Night Best Bet Total of the Month

New England is a standard play

The personal bets of the Vegas syndicate are on OffshoreInsiders.com

“It is literally the DNA of football handicapping,” says Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the top sports betting site in the world.

Duffy has announced the permanent capitalization of sports handicapping’s version of DNA:  employing a popular and scholarly business and economics tool, Performance Gap Analysis and applying it to sports betting in exploiting oddsmaker errors.

Based on years of experience, and significant trial and error, they’ve developed a “performance gap analysis”. It’s based on the statistical hypothesis testing and concludes that yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play on offense and defense are most indicative of talent and less variable. They are lead indicators.

Yards per point and turnovers are more affected by random chance or luck and are more correctable, hence more variable and tougher to maintain. They are lag indicators.

The former is more a precursor to future results than the latter. Any dichotomy between the two subsets measures upside/downside, overvalued and undervalued teams.

However Duffy puts the fears of long-time clients to rest, “This newest weapon merely tests and more times than not corroborates and substantiates our existing football handicapping methods,” assures Duffy.

But much like DNA in the courtroom, it will occasionally refute the preponderance of evidence and has cancelled a small percentage of bets.

“We’ve been quietly availing ourselves to this prototype, but more so in hypothesis test mode,” informs Duffy.

However, only a small percentage of bets will be affected. In some cases, plays will be upgraded, others slightly downgraded, while a small minority cancelled.

By upgrading and downgrading, it does not mean simply changing a Major to Wise Guy or visa versa.

When weighing their preponderance of evidence, certain potential picks are often “on the bubble” so further validation will upgrade so-called “strong leans” to premium picks.

“Performance Gap Analysis does not supersede or replace our time-tested and proven techniques,” reassures Duffy.

Among the procedures long mastered by Duffy include:

Situational: letdown, look ahead, and “sandwich” games; revenge, motivational, intangibles, etc.

Matchups of strengths and weaknesses: using some of the top experts including subscribing to real “scout services”. This is of course very much taking into consideration injuries.

Computer systems: most importantly knowing that to be statistically significant, the system must have a z-rating of 4.5 or better or at least 80 units on the plus side based on one-unit per bet.

Contrarian info: Betting with the sharp and against the square bettor.

Realizing the top expert is not the only expert: The famed competitor consensus plays. If they have a lean one way and one of the few sports services or sources that GodsTips respects has a big pick on a certain side, they pass along as a competitor consensus.

Outlaw lines: The official outlaw line is what the point spread would be without any adjustments to public perception. GodsTips exploits the dichotomy.

Comparing splits: home/road variances are contrasted with overall numbers. Most importantly, knowledge of how to utilize the data and many squares abuse it.