Sharps made a fortune with early scores on NFL Week 1. Here are the highlights:
The Canadian Crew is done for the day. Late play pending off 3-0 NFL sweep: Already in are Baltimore, Chicago, and Philadelphia. Key Play of the Day improves to 80 percent with the Bills outright.
GodsTips sweep the final week of preseason going 2-0. After Green Bay Thursday, it was a perfect 3-0 sweep early with Wise Guy Chicago, Majors on Tampa over and a rout on Houston. Get the Sunday night side for just $12. You MUST choose the Second Chance option to get that price. Sunday Night side just $12 on the Second Chance option.
Here is what GodsTips clients got early:
Wise Guy plays are your maximum play. Majors are .75 of Wise Guy plays. We always urge line shopping to compliment the sharpest plays in the world and release plays as early as possible to ensure more success. Often our plays are released before most sportsbooks have lines up. If we released plays later in the day, it would allow us to shop for better lines than we are able to post. But we are more concerned about YOU being able to shop for better lines. Be aware that in many cases better lines will be available than the ones we post. Game of the Year and Game of the Month plays still involve the same straight betting as above. While we believe all gamblers need only bet our plays we realize some pick and choose selections. Said distinction is for such ala carte players. All units won quoted on systems are based on one unit per bet.
All baseball picks now specify pitchers unless otherwise noted. Team record is what that team did with the pitcher starting, regardless if he was involved in the decision.
NFL
Wise Guy…
CHICAGO +2.5 Atlanta
Matt Ryan has more weapons than ever, but won’t have time to find them. Julius Peppers is one of the best defensive ends in the NFL right now. And he is a nightmare to get blocked against the run, but especially in the passing game.
Chicago will line Peppers up on either the right or left side, but more often than not, he will do battle with Sam Baker, a very average left tackle. Atlanta will have to give Baker help with Peppers, which could limit its options at receiver.
In Lovie Smith’s seven seasons as coach, the Bears’ defense has allowed an average of 12 points in openers. And that includes games against the Packers’ Brett Favre (170 yards, 40.9 rating), the Chargers’ Philip Rivers (190 yards, 73.3), the Colts’ Peyton Manning (257 yards, 81.8) and the Packers’ Aaron Rodgers (184 yards, 92.0).
Atlanta has weaknesses on defense and are not the type to exploit Jay Cutler. Chemistry is there—important with the shortened offseason. The Bears benefit from a group of veteran leaders on defense — Urlacher (33), end Julius Peppers (31), tackle Anthony Adams (31), Tillman (30), linebacker Lance Briggs (30) and end Israel Idonije (30) have eight years or more in the NFL
The home dog wins here.
Major…
HOUSTON -8.5 Indianapolis
In all my years of handicapping, I am trying to think of one team every having more motivation to blow out the other in week 1. Houston has always been everyone’s breakout team—now they can make their statement against a Colts team without Peyton Manning and with 104-year-old Kerry Collins.
Indianapolis has managed to get bigger up front, especially on the interior, but it still is struggling when it comes to stopping a power running game.
There is some uncertainty about the health of running back Arian Foster. But we will be surprised if he does not play. He gave the Texans their second 1,000 yard rusher in the past seven years and definitely takes some of the pressure off of QB Matt Schaub and the passing game.
That will keep the defense very honest and create big matchup problems. Andre Johnson has arguably become one of the top two or three receivers in the NFL and is even more effective when isolated against cornerbacks that are looking at a three- to four-inch height disadvantage. Both of Indianapolis’ starting corners are in the 5-foot-10 range and can be exposed when trying to match up with a big receiver like Johnson.
Detroit-Tampa OVER 41.5
Both teams have somewhat erratic, but potentially very good offenses. With a low total, it’s too high of a percentage play to not expect at least one to explode. Both teams will have more success with the big play then slowly marching down the field.
Josh Freeman a fine threesome to throw to in Arrelious Benn, Kellen Winslow and Mike Williams. He also has LeGarrette Blount at RB to keep everyone on Detroit’s defense honest.
Detroit has weapons with Calvin Johnson and Jahvid Best. Detroit has a defense that’s more anointed than proven. Tampa’s offense improved when Josh Freeman started. Look for 47 points to be scored.
The Key Play of the Day was too easy. Alabama Saturday, the Bills today:
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City (-5.5, 39.5)
10p
Selection: Buffalo
I. Vegas sharps very concerned about KC OC Weiss heading to UF. His absence was clear in preseason. Chiefs defense will struggle early in season
II. Private database gives Buffalo 84.33 % chance to cover
III. StatFox Outplay Factor gives Buffalo the spread edge by 2.5 points
IV. MasseyRatings has KC winning but failing to cover 19.8-22.5
V. Buffalo much better than last year’s record after losing three games in OT and improving throughout year
VI. Good handicapper Phil Steele has Buffalo on his Power Sweep
VII. Good service Wunderdog has Buffalo
VIII. KANSAS CITY is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
IX. BUFFALO is 9-3 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY since 1992
X. Chiefs are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite
XI. Bills are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0
XII. Solid service Nelly’s Greensheet has Buffalo
XIII. Buffalo has added 340-pound rookie Marcell Dareus plus inside linebacker Nick Barnett to go along with one of the league’s top nose tackles, Kyle Williams. The Chiefs generally don’t match up well with bigger, more physical opponents.
Here is Saturday’s Key Pod:
Alabama at Penn State
12:30p
Alabama (-9.5)
I. All teams as Road team as a Favorite – Playing on Saturday – With 6 days off – vs. opponent with a 80% or more winning % – Allowed 7 points or less AGAINST in their last game is 12-2
II. Road team – Playing on Saturday – Total is between 41.5 to 44 – vs. opponent with a 80% or more winning % – Coming off a 1 ATS win is 8-2.
III. Alabama Road team – During the month of September – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite is 9-2
IV. Alabama team playing as a Road team – After a non conference game – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite is 11-4
V. Penn State as a Home team – Last 5 years – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite is 3-7
VI. AccuScore has Alabama winning 30.4-16.6
VII. ALA is 14-7-1 ATS (+5.5 ppg) since October 16, 1999 as a road favorite after a win.
VIII. ALA is 14-6 ATS (+5.7 ppg) since September 13, 2008 after a win at home.
IX. ALA is 21-11 ATS (+3.7 ppg) since October 06, 1990 as a road favorite after a win at home.
X. ALA is 30-12 ATS (+4.4 ppg) since September 17, 1994 on the road after a win at home.
XI. Private database gives Alabama a 85.88 chance of covering
XII. Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (ALABAMA) – after allowing 9 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game is 64-25
XIII. GreyMatterStats has Alabama covering
XIV. Masseyratings has Alabama winning 29.9-17.4
XV. Alabama returns 10 defensive starters
XVI. Penn State replacing all-time leading rusher Evan Royster
XVII. Since the start of 2010, the Nittany Lions complete 43.0 percent of passes against the SEC, compared to 58.7 against other conferences. Against the SEC, Penn State has a 1-8 TD-INT ratio compared to 18-9 against others.
XVIII. With mediocre quarterbacks Rob Bolden and Matt McCloin, the 23rd-ranked Nittany Lions don’t have enough offense to attack what should be one of Alabama’s best defensive teams.
XIX. Top play from PredictionMachine on Alabama
Now to the wunderkinds of the Canadian Crew
Atlanta Falcons @ Chicago Bears
Sunday, September 11, 1:00 p.m. ET
NFL betting line: Falcons -3
We see this every year. A team gets hyped like crazy in the offseason, so much that it winds up a road favorite against a reigning division champion. Yes, the Falcons’ offense looks like it will be very exciting in 2011, as Matt Ryan airs it out to Roddy White, Julio Jones and company. Flying under the radar, however, is the fact that this team’s so-so defense isn’t improved entering this season. We can’t underestimate the power of a home crowd in Week 1, either. The Bears may regress this season but they still have a great defense and some playmakers on offense.
People are acting like Atlanta already has this game locked up. It doesn’t. Look for the Bears to surprise, with Matt Forte leading the charge in the backfield.
The pick: Bears +3
Philadelphia Eagles @ St. Louis Rams
Sunday, September 11, 1:00 p.m. ET
NFL betting line: Eagles -4.5
Is Sam Bradford a star quarterback in the making? Yes. Is Josh McDaniels a DREAM marriage for him as an offensive co-ordinator? Yes. But I still don’t think St. Louis wins in Week 1.
A Josh McDaniels playbook isn’t easy to master – especially during a lockout-shortened offseason in which study time is short. Bradford’s preseason was pretty uneven, suggesting he and McDaniels are still working out the kinks. Facing an aggressive Eagles “D” with a solid pass rush and unbelievable secondary isn’t a recipe for aerial success.
And look at the speed the Eagles will throw at the Rams on offense. Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy on turf? Fuggedaboutit.
The pick: Eagles -4.5 NFC 2 Team Best Bet of the Year
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, September 11, 1:00 p.m. ET
NFL betting line: Ravens -2.5
We don’t know that the Steelers have fixed their trouble with defending the deep pass. It plagued them last year. With Lee Evans joining the fray in Baltimore, look for Joe Flacco to really test Pittsburgh’s secondary – and look for him to succeed.
The pick: Ravens -2.5
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