The incredible Vic Duke, Senior Handicapper of OffshoreInsiders.com put together this remarkable Sunday, going 6-1.
San Francisco (-13’) for 3 Units ***
St. Louis/San Francisco 4:15: Usually well organized teams with a clear cut winning philosophy bounce back after losses. SF appears to be cut from that mold with Harbaugh as their leader. SF sports a nice 11-4-3 ATS mark following an ATS loss.
SF, after facing the tough as nails defense of Baltimore last week, should get their offense cooking against the soft Rams’ defense. St. Louis has the worst run stop unit in the league (allow 159 yards per game / 5.1 ypc) and should have trouble stopping Frank Gore, who should easily eclipse Joe Perry as SF’s all time leading rusher. Moreover, his bruising running should aid Alex Smith in restoring his confidence after getting sacked 9X last week.
St. Louis, however, should continue to run into problems; after all, QB Bradford (ankle) is unlikely to start as the Rams struggle with offensive balance. A.J. Feeley is not the answer against one of the top defenses in the NFL. The Rams struggle as a double digit dog at 6-15 ATS and should add to their 2-10 ATS slide. After all, SF has control of this series at 7-3 ATS and sports a 7-0-1 ATS mark at home. SF the call
Arizona (+5) for 2.5 Units **’
Dallas/Arizona 4:15: The Cowboys have a recent history of struggling in December at 5-13 ATS. And although Dallas won its last two games SU, they had to rally late to close out the game and failed to cover. And I see them having trouble here.
Arizona has some explosive talent, including Beanie Wells, Fitzgerald and electrifying return specialist Patrick Peterson. Dallas’ defense has a thin secondary and now that Kevin Kolb is back in action, should struggle against Arizona’s talented receiving corp. Arizona has enough offensive weaponry to hang around today.
Technically, the Cardinals are a solid 8-1 ATS against a non-division opponent off back-to-back SU wins. And they’re a dangerous 15-5-1 ATS as a home dog of 3’ to 10 points. With Dallas at 1-4 ATS as a road favorite of 3’ to 10 points, we’ll sit on Arizona here.
Carolina Over (47) for 2 Units **
Carolina/Tampa Bay 1:00: Both of these teams’ have weak defenses that should be exploited with their respective solid offensive weaponry.
Carolina brings to Raymond James Stadium Cam Newton who has a good surrounding cast of players to frequent the end zone against a Buccaneers’ defense that allows 32 ppg. On the other hand, TB’s offense, which should have Josh Freeman (shoulder) ready, should also have an easy time breaking the Panthers’ soft defense (allows 33 ppg) by pounding bruising LeGarrette Blount through the line to make life easier for Freeman today. And let’s not forget that Freeman was awesome in his last two meetings against Carolina.
Technically, the Panthers are 6-2-1 O/U as a road dog. TB is 4-1-1 O/U as a home favorite. With this series at 6-1-1 O/U in TB, we’ll go
Baltimore (-6’) for 2 Units **
Baltimore/Cleveland 4:05: This season, Baltimore has gotten a reputation playing down to its level of competition. After all, they’ve suffered defeats on the road to Tennessee, Jacksonville and Seattle. Today, we’ll look for Baltimore to have learned their lesson and handle prosperity as a top tier team should.
Baltimore’s defense was dominant on the 24th against SF. They should turn in another knock out performance against the struggling Cleveland offense. And given the few extra rest days, we’ll bet that the Ravens made good use of their time; after all, they’re 8-1 ATS with extended rest. We’ll look for the Ravens to pound the ball successfully with Ray Rice; consequently, Flacco shold have success with play action.
Technically, Baltimore is 7-0 ATS off an NFC game vs an opponent off a SU loss. They’re also 8-1 ATS off a double digit ATS win vs an opponent off a SU loss. The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in this series and should continue to own it. Cleveland is a mere 1-7-2 ATS at home.
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NY Giants (+7) for 1.5 Units *’
Packers/Giants : The Giants have had schizophrenia under Coughlin in which they’ve looked like an unbeatable team one week and flop miserably the next. This week we’ll look for the good NYG to show up for this role fits them well.
NY is 7-1 ATS off a double digit ATS loss against an oppnent off back to back SU wins. And they’re 8-3 ATS as a home dog in this spread range. They’re also seeking to avenge last year’s 45-17 loss on December 26th which vaulted GB on its historic run to the Super Bowl. The Giants are a sweet 5-0-1 ATS in week 13 and should be competitive here.
GB is unquestionably focused to run the table but may struggle to do so. The Packers are very thin in their LB corps and offensively will have to pencil in replacements for two starters, including LT Clifton (back). The Giants have registered 31 sacks this year (only 5 last 4) and could get back to their aggressive earlier season selves here.
We’ll look for NY to limit turnovers and be competitve here.
Tennessee (+2) for 1.5 Units *’
Tennessee/Buffalo 1:00: Tennessee is 6-1 SU in thsi series and we’ll look for them to steal another one in Buffalo.
The Bills started out like gangbusters this season but now are finding new ways to lose games. Fitzpatrick did come back strong last week but he hasn’t gotten help from the run game—left in the hands of Spiller who hasn’t been the go-to-guy like Fred Jackson (knee) was. The Titans are a respectable defensive team that can rush the passer. We’ll look for Tennessee to disrupt the Bills’ timing offense.
On the other hand, the Titans finally got their run game going with Chris Johnson last week. We’ll look for him to stay on track with another big game here vs a sluggish Bills’ run stop unit.
With the Bills at a money burning 9-23-2 ATS at home against a team with a winning road record, we’ll grab the value with the Titans.
Cincinnati (+7) for 1 units *
Bengals/Steelers 1:00: The Bengals are looking to avenge the November 13th loss in which they were highly competitve. We’ll grab the touchdown dog. The road team in this series is 14-5-1 ATS. Cincinnati sports a 6-0-1 ATS mark on the road.
Bengals’ OC Gruden has done a bang up job developing Dalton and the Bengals’ offensive system. Pittsburgh has its point of over-aggressiveness at times and Gruden should find a precise moment for Dalton and company to exploit it for the big play. The Bengals have a run game with Benson as well, which has taken much of the burden off rookie Dalton.
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