This is the type of in-depth corroboration every day on the baseball version of the Key Play of the Day
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers (McDonald/Greinke)
Line: Milwaukee (-138)
5:10p
Key Play of the Day: Milwaukee -138
I. Private database gives Milwaukee an 86.090 chance of covering to Milwaukee
II. The Pirates are 8-33 ($-2223) (-3.5 rpg) since May 16th, 2008 on the road when they won their starter’s last two starts and their starter has less than seven days rest.
III. The Brewers are 22-9 ($1257) (+2.6 rpg) since June 22, 2010 when they are off a win in which they scored more runs off the bullpen than they did off their opponent’s starter.
IV. Masseyratings has Milwaukee winning
V. Greinke 2012 9-3, 3.32 ERA, 1.23 ratio
VI. Zack Greinke is 4-1 lifetime against the Pittsburgh Pirates
VII. James McDonald career at Miller Park 1-2, 6.00 ERA
VIII. Zach Greinke career at Miller Park 15-0, 2.68 ERA
IX. When MILWAUKEE Played as home team as a Favorite – During Last 4 Years or Less – Won Last Game by 2 Runs or Less – With SU Record of 2 Win 3 Lost in L5G they are 16-4
X. Play On – Home teams (MILWAUKEE) – with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season (NL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.050 or better on the season-NL.
XI. (204-139 since 1997.) (59.5%, +64.6 units. Rating = 2*)
XII. Play On – Home teams (MILWAUKEE) – with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR’s/start against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.050 or better on the season-NL.
XIII. (183-134 since 1997.) (57.7%, +60.3 units. Rating = 2*)
XIV. Play Against – All underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (PITTSBURGH) – below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.70) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start.
XV. (92-33 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.6%, +40.9 units. Rating = 2*)
XVI. Play On – Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (MILWAUKEE) – with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season (NL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.050 or better on the season-NL.
XVII. (109-47 since 1997.) (69.9%, +43.7 units. Rating = 2*)
XVIII. Play Against – All underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (PITTSBURGH) – bad offensive team (<=4.1 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA<=3.70) (NL), with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start.
XIX. (70-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.7%, +41.7 units. Rating = 3*)
XX. Play Against – All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (PITTSBURGH) – where team’s hitters draw 3 walks or less/game on the season, after a win by 10 runs or more.
XXI. (69-23 since 1997.) (75%, +38.5 units. Rating = 3*)
XXII. Play Against – Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (PITTSBURGH) – where team’s hitters draw 3 walks or less/game on the season, after a win by 10 runs or more.
XXIII. (48-11 since 1997.) (81.4%, +32.3 units. Rating = 3*)
XXIV. Play Against – All underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (PITTSBURGH) – poor hitting team (AVG <=.250) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.70) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start.
XXV. (75-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.3%, +41.5 units. Rating = 3*)
XXVI. Play Against – Any team (PITTSBURGH) – where team’s hitters draw 3 walks or less/game on the season, after a win by 10 runs or more.
XXVII. (39-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.4%, +22.5 units. Rating = 2*)
XXVIII. Play Against – Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (PITTSBURGH) – poor hitting team (AVG <=.250) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.70) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start.
XXIX. (57-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (77%, +30.4 units. Rating = 2*)
XXX. Play Against – All underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (PITTSBURGH) – with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start, in July games.
XXXI. (99-34 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.4%, +47.1 units. Rating = 3*)
XXXII. Play On – All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (MILWAUKEE) – with a tired bullpen – throwing 9+ innings over the last 2 games, in July games.
XXXIII. (142-66 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.3%, +52.3 units. Rating = 2*)
XXXIV. MILWAUKEE is 26-10 (+10.6 Units) against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
XXXV. MILWAUKEE is 16-5 (+8.1 Units) against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
XXXVI. MCDONALD is 1-2 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 6.61 and a WHIP of 1.408.
XXXVII. PITTSBURGH is 20-59 (-27.5 Units) against the money line in road games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
XXXVIII. The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.5, OPPONENT 5.0 – (Rating = 1*)
XXXIX. PITTSBURGH is 41-95 (-30.9 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
XL. The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.5, OPPONENT 5.1 – (Rating = 1*)
XLI. PITTSBURGH is 215-320 (-79.9 Units) against the money line after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games since 1997.
XLII. The average score was PITTSBURGH 4.2, OPPONENT 4.9 – (Rating = 0*)
XLIII. PITTSBURGH is 79-156 (-71.1 Units) against the money line after having won 4 of their last 5 games since 1997.
XLIV. The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.9, OPPONENT 4.9 – (Rating = 2*)
XLV. PITTSBURGH is 160-303 (-82.0 Units) against the money line in road games after 2 straight games without a stolen base since 1997.
XLVI. The average score was PITTSBURGH 4.2, OPPONENT 5.3 – (Rating = 0*)
XLVII. MILWAUKEE is 47-18 (+25.2 Units) against the money line in home games after a win by 2 runs or less over the last 3 seasons.
XLVIII. The average score was MILWAUKEE 5.3, OPPONENT 4.1 – (Rating = 1*)
XLIX. MILWAUKEE is 108-61 (+25.3 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons.
L. The average score was MILWAUKEE 5.0, OPPONENT 4.0 – (Rating = 1*)
LI. MILWAUKEE is 68-32 (+22.1 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons.
LII. The average score was MILWAUKEE 5.0, OPPONENT 3.9 – (Rating = 1*)
LIII. MILWAUKEE is 76-35 (+27.6 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons.
LIV. The average score was MILWAUKEE 5.1, OPPONENT 4.3 – (Rating = 1*)
LV. MILWAUKEE is 49-19 (+21.7 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons.
LVI. The average score was MILWAUKEE 5.0, OPPONENT 4.2 – (Rating = 2*)
LVII. MILWAUKEE is 84-47 (+23.7 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
LVIII. The average score was MILWAUKEE 5.0, OPPONENT 4.4 – (Rating = 1*)
LIX. MILWAUKEE is 73-36 (+26.2 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
LX. The average score was MILWAUKEE 5.0, OPPONENT 4.2 – (Rating = 1*)
LXI. GREINKE is 31-8 (+19.9 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. (Team’s Record)
LXII. The average score was GREINKE 5.8, OPPONENT 3.7 – (Rating = 2*)
LXIII. GREINKE is 18-5 (+11.1 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons. (Team’s Record)
LXIV. The average score was GREINKE 6.0, OPPONENT 4.0 – (Rating = 0*)
LXV. GREINKE is 36-14 (+19.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team’s Record)
LXVI. The average score was GREINKE 5.2, OPPONENT 3.9 – (Rating = 1*)
LXVII. GREINKE is 31-11 (+17.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team’s Record)
LXVIII. The average score was GREINKE 5.1, OPPONENT 3.8 – (Rating = 1*)
LXIX. GREINKE is 23-0 (+23.0 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. (Team’s Record)
LXX. The average score was GREINKE 6.2, OPPONENT 3.1 – (Rating = 6*)
LXXI. GREINKE is 12-0 (+12.0 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons. (Team’s Record)
LXXII. The average score was GREINKE 6.4, OPPONENT 4.1 – (Rating = 3*)
LXXIII. GREINKE is 23-1 (+22.0 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. (Team’s Record)
LXXIV. The average score was GREINKE 6.0, OPPONENT 3.0 – (Rating = 5*)
LXXV. GREINKE is 15-1 (+14.0 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7.5 or less over the last 2 seasons. (Team’s Record)
LXXVI. The average score was GREINKE 5.8, OPPONENT 3.1 – (Rating = 2*)
LXXVII. GREINKE is 15-0 (+15.0 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 7.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team’s Record)
LXXVIII. The average score was GREINKE 6.1, OPPONENT 3.1 – (Rating = 4*)
LXXIX. GREINKE is 23-0 (+23.0 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team’s Record)
LXXX. The average score was GREINKE 6.2, OPPONENT 3.1 – (Rating = 6*)
LXXXI. GREINKE is 12-0 (+12.0 Units) against the money line in home games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team’s Record)
LXXXII. The average score was GREINKE 5.7, OPPONENT 3.1 – (Rating = 1*)
LXXXIII. GREINKE is 36-14 (+19.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team’s Record)
LXXXIV. The average score was GREINKE 5.2, OPPONENT 3.9 – (Rating = 1*)
LXXXV. GREINKE is 24-8 (+14.6 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team’s Record)
LXXXVI. The average score was GREINKE 4.6, OPPONENT 3.6 – (Rating = 0*)
LXXXVII. GREINKE is 15-1 (+14.0 Units) against the money line in home games after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team’s Record)
LXXXVIII. The average score was GREINKE 5.3, OPPONENT 3.3 – (Rating = 2*)
LXXXIX. PITTSBURGH is 21-10 (+11.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
XC. The average score was PITTSBURGH 4.4, OPPONENT 3.2 – (Rating = 2*)
XCI. PITTSBURGH is 20-17 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
XCII. The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.8, OPPONENT 3.3 – (Rating = 0*)
XCIII. PITTSBURGH is 20-14 (+9.7 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse this season.
XCIV. The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.6, OPPONENT 3.6 – (Rating = 1*)
XCV. PITTSBURGH is 24-14 (+14.0 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season.
XCVI. The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.7, OPPONENT 3.4 – (Rating = 2*)
XCVII. PITTSBURGH is 28-20 (+11.1 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season.
XCVIII. The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.9, OPPONENT 3.6 – (Rating = 1*)
XCIX. PITTSBURGH is 30-24 (+11.8 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season.
C. The average score was PITTSBURGH 4.0, OPPONENT 4.0 – (Rating = 1*)
CI. PITTSBURGH is 16-10 (+8.0 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB’s/start) this season.
CII. The average score was PITTSBURGH 4.2, OPPONENT 4.3 – (Rating = 1*)
CIII. PITTSBURGH is 14-8 (+9.1 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better this season.
CIV. The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.8, OPPONENT 3.8 – (Rating = 1*)
CV. PITTSBURGH is 15-10 (+7.3 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR’s/start this season.
CVI. The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.4, OPPONENT 3.6 – (Rating = 0*)
CVII. MCDONALD is 10-3 (+9.4 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team’s Record)
CVIII. The average score was MCDONALD 3.8, OPPONENT 2.6 – (Rating = 1*)
CIX. MILWAUKEE is 113-167 (-48.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.
CX. The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.1, OPPONENT 5.2 – (Rating = 0*)
CXI. MILWAUKEE is 125-149 (-39.9 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season since 1997.
CXII. The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.5, OPPONENT 4.9 – (Rating = 0*)
CXIII. MILWAUKEE is 8-15 (-9.8 Units) against the money line vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better this season.
CXIV. The average score was MILWAUKEE 3.7, OPPONENT 4.2 – (Rating = 1*)
CXV. MILWAUKEE is 13-19 (-10.1 Units) against the money line vs. a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better this season.
CXVI. The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.4, OPPONENT 4.6 – (Rating = 1*)
CXVII. MILWAUKEE is 21-27 (-11.4 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better this season.
CXVIII. The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.2, OPPONENT 4.5 – (Rating = 1*)
CXIX. MILWAUKEE is 6-13 (-10.6 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities this season.
CXX. The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.6, OPPONENT 4.8 – (Rating = 1*)
CXXI. MILWAUKEE is 10-18 (-11.0 Units) against the money line vs. a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season.
CXXII. The average score was MILWAUKEE 3.8, OPPONENT 4.4 – (Rating = 1*)
CXXIII. MILWAUKEE is 22-27 (-10.2 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season.
CXXIV. The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.1, OPPONENT 4.2 – (Rating = 0*)
CXXV. MILWAUKEE is 16-22 (-9.7 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season.
CXXVI. The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.6, OPPONENT 4.7 – (Rating = 1*)
CXXVII. MILWAUKEE is 7-15 (-9.9 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season.
CXXVIII. The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.1, OPPONENT 6.1 – (Rating = 1*)
CXXIX. Pirates are 80-168 in their last 248 road games.
CXXX. Pirates are 77-165 in their last 242 games as a road underdog.
CXXXI. Pirates are 64-138 in their last 202 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
CXXXII. Pirates are 51-113 in their last 164 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
CXXXIII. Pirates are 31-70 in their last 101 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.
CXXXIV. Pirates are 38-88 in their last 126 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
CXXXV. Pirates are 47-120 in their last 167 road games vs. a team with a winning home record
CXXXVI. Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
CXXXVII. Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 Friday games.
CXXXVIII. Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
CXXXIX. Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
CXL. Brewers are 6-2 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
CXLI. Brewers are 6-2 in their last 8 games as a favorite.
CXLII. Brewers are 5-2 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
CXLIII. Brewers are 12-5 in their last 17 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
CXLIV. Brewers are 14-6 in their last 20 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
CXLV. Brewers are 58-28 in their last 86 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
CXLVI. Brewers are 68-33 in their last 101 games as a home favorite.
CXLVII. Brewers are 4-10 in their last 14 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
CXLVIII. Brewers are 2-5 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
CXLIX. Brewers are 9-0 in Greinkes last 9 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.
CL. Brewers are 4-0 in Greinkes last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
CLI. Brewers are 23-1 in Greinkes last 24 starts as a home favorite.
CLII. Brewers are 23-1 in Greinkes last 24 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
CLIII. Brewers are 23-1 in Greinkes last 24 home starts.
CLIV. Brewers are 9-1 in Greinkes last 10 starts during game 1 of a series.
CLV. Brewers are 8-1 in Greinkes last 9 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
CLVI. Brewers are 6-1 in Greinkes last 7 Friday starts.
CLVII. Brewers are 12-2 in Greinkes last 14 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
CLVIII. Brewers are 15-3 in Greinkes last 18 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
CLIX. Brewers are 31-9 in Greinkes last 40 starts as a favorite.
CLX. Brewers are 24-8 in Greinkes last 32 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
CLXI. Brewers are 26-9 in Greinkes last 35 starts.
CLXII. Brewers are 26-9 in Greinkes last 35 starts on grass.
CLXIII. Brewers are 19-7 in Greinkes last 26 starts vs. National League Central.
CLXIV. Pirates are 15-47 in the last 62 meetings.
CLXV. Pirates are 8-44 in the last 52 meetings in Milwaukee.
CLXVI. Betting market analysis suggests it is one of the strongest whale offshore bets all season on Milwaukee. In schmoes vs. Joes, most donk bettors are on Pittsburgh