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Handicapper has specialized in national TV games for years and is arguably the best handicapper of high profile games especially in college basketball and football. 53.7 percent in college football and 60.2 in NFL this season, ESPN NFL Total of the Year on Pats vs. Bills
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Patriots (-14, 44.5) vs. Bills
- Just 25th time a team has been getting 2 TDs at home
- No clear-cut angle as road favorites are 13-10 in such
- But home underdogs 3-1 last 4
- First since 2012
- Even with low total, no real angle
- However, all underdogs of 12.5 or more with total of 46 or less are 177-144 55.1 percent
- 69 percent of bets on Pats, 78 percent of money
- 75 percent of bets on over, but only 60 percent of money
- Big road favorites despite splits are 128-82 (Pats)
- Pats 1-2 SU on road, Bills 1-1 at home
- Very unbalanced schedule as Bills playing just third home game
- No real edge when said teams are playing at home
- Fading non-elite prime time underdogs or small favorites is 119-82 (go with Pats)
- Big underdogs off blowout loss are 79-48 (Bills)
- Large home underdogs under specific circumstances that apply today are 65-34 when opponent is off a win (Bills)
- Pats TE Rob Gronkowski will play
- Bills RB LeSean McCoy is probable
- Derek Anderson starts at QB for Bills as rookie Josh Allen is out
- Abysmal Nathan Peterman is backup
- New England rookie RB Sony Michel is out