The capacity and willingness to think outside the box—counter-intuitive logic—is imperative in sports betting. Zig while the other gamblers zag. It is distinct from contrarian betting, which acknowledges the masses are asses, applying betting data to fade the public.

The intuitive approach is to bet on the hotter and better team. Said method is in part why the public adores risking on favorites. Again, one of the most underlying precepts of sports betting: the line is not a prediction on the outcome of the game. It’s a spread or over-under set based on getting equal action on each side. Thus, bookies inflate numbers when rolling the dice with quality teams playing well.  

Winning gamblers recognize there is a substantial opportunity in wagering with undervalued struggling or bottom rung squads. Here is an example for demonstrative purposes:

Team A is playing at home and is in a streak that is at least nine games better than the road team. The means any combo of team A consecutive wins (six for example) and Team B losses (three to demonstrate) is at least nine. Furthermore, A’s season winning percentage is at least .200 points better.

There is no debate that most gamblers would much more eagerly bet Team A. I added that the inferior team is not a road favorite to weed out outliers like injury, expected to rest key players, etc. As of this writing, the inferior, and the much colder road team is 352-291-8 for a solid 54.7 percent. When odds sharks add other factors, such as rest, margins, etc. many sub-systems are well into the upper 50 and 60 percentile or above.

The stock market adage of sell when others are buying and buy when others are selling is true in betting. The demand bettors make is investing in superior and hotter squads. Such action causes serious rising prices. Bookmakers take advantage of conventional thinkers because that’s what most gamblers are.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=abkzAPVYoTU

I assert it regularly. One of the fundamental principles of gambling is never, ever make a bet based on what is most natural to root for. While JoeyBagadonuts is always going to hit 47-49 percent betting on superior teams and overs, sharps thank him for creating distorted lines and ample windows of opportunity.

The author, Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy has been a full-time gambler and handicapper since 1988. He is CEO and anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com, the top sports handicapper site on earth.