Joe Duffy has 11 football winners up for the weekend including Thursday Night College Football Total of the Year, CBS SportsNetwork Bet of the Year, NFL Interconference Total of Year.As long as you have a package that includes Monday you can access all week’s picks. Get at OffshoreInsiders.com  

49ers (-9.5, 43) at Cardinals 

• Favorites dominate short weeks at 102-54 (49ers)
• Short week momentum angle is 34-14-2 (49ers)
• Go with much worse ats team is 292-208-8 (Arizona)
• Less rested defense in terms of plays during season is 146-105-3 (Arizona)
• 83 percent of bets, 90 percent of money on Niners
• Murray sacked 26 times, third most in league
  • Niners 4^th in NFL with 27
• Big dogs in low-scoring games 58.2 percent

The pick: SAN FRANCISCO -9.5

Texans (-1.5, 46.5) at Jags 

• London calling
• Jacksonville thinned at WR with Marquise Lee and Dede Westbrook both questionable 
  • Lee No. 1 option when healthy, Westbrook 32 receptions for 383 yards
• Jags QB Gardner Minshew one of last 2 chances to win starting job
• Jags won both games since trading Jalen Ramsey 
  • Point of diminishing return
• Texans JJ Watt out for year, first game without him
• However Texans LT Laremy Tunsill expected back after leaving last week’s game

HOUSTON -1.5

Redskins at Bills (-9.5, 37)

• Teams hitting the road off horrific back-to-back offensive efforts are 25-5-1 (Washington)
• Betting on ice-cold teams 164-108-2 (Washington)
  • Despite being 83-191 SU
    • 30 percent SU, 60 percent ats
• Bills 3-0 SU road, 2-2 home but laying -10 home despite road team 5-2 SU in their games
  • Big home favorites despite splits saying they are better road is 99-67-3
• Haskins or Keenum for Washington 
  • Keenum if healthy 
  • Keenum better short-term QB
• Teams with winning percentage of .700 or above off LHF are 72-57-7 (Buffalo)

The pick: Buffalo -9.5

SMU at Memphis

• Short away dogs is 649-483-30
  • Moved +3 to +5.5
• Undefeated underdogs of 2.5 or more in game 6 or later is 128-95-6
• Surprising offenses (SMU) based on delta points scored, go under 1065-894-48
• SMU WR Reggie Roberson is questionable
  • 43 receptions for 803 yards and 6 TDs
• Fact it’s primetime and at night will affect atmosphere and be big for memphis

The pick: SMU +5.5

Oregon at USC

• Angle about fading a team off a win, but two straight horrible defenses efforts is 114-68-3 (USC)
  • Oregon allowed 66 points last two games
• Since 1980 only 37 times has a team given up at least 62 points over their last two games combined, but still allow less than 16 ppg on the season. Said teams are 11-24-2 (favors USC)
• USC has battled a ton of injuries 
• Cornerback Chris Steele and defensive end Christian Rector are on track for a return to the field.
• Freshman Kedon Slovas very talented for USC
  • Played well with game in line to Colorado leading to two fourth quarter touchdowns 
• Top two sack teams 

The pick: USC +5

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