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Redskins at Vikings (-16,42)
- Go with much worse spread team in terms of margin of cover is 171-105-11 including 7-1 off shutout (Washington)
- Road underdogs off getting shutout are 45-27 (Washington)
- But big favorites to bad teams in games expected to be low scoring on Thursday nights are 13-0 (Minnesota)
- Favorites in short week 105-57-5 under specific circumstances that apply today (Minnesota)
- Case Keenum vs. Kirk Cousins, not real handicapping value
- Skins RB Adrian Peterson probable with low ankle sprain
- Skins interim coach Bill Callahan is OL guru and has put emphasis on power running game
- Cousins off a good game will come out flat on short week
- Total jumped from 40-42, so now outside angle where road favorites of 15 or more, total 41.5 or less are 30-11-1
- At 42, it’s 32-14
The pick: UNDER 7.5 first quarter
Seahawks (-3.5,54) at Falcons
- Off board in a lot of areas with Ryan questionable and Falcons just traded Mohamed Sanu
- Ito Smith out
- Seattle 3-0 SU road, 2-2 home sets up angle where road teams that have been much better on road 125-84-4 (Seattle)
- Worse turnover team is 526-400-28 (Atlanta)
- Turnovers correctable and good fortune
- Atlanta 1-6 ats (league worst) by -10.3 points per game, second worst in league
- Terrible ats teams under specific circumstances that apply today 86-52-5 (Atlanta)
- Home underdogs of 3.5 or more off blowout loss 79-52-3 (Atlanta)
- Mountain or Center teams at 1 ET 117-78-3 at 60 percent (Atlanta)
The pick: Seattle laying -4 or less
Panthers at 49ers (-5.5, 41.5)
- Premium total
- 49ers 4-2 ats with league-leading 12.7 margin of cover
- Carolina 4-2 by +5.2
- Teams in week 8 or later covering by an average of 11.5 or more 22-12 (49ers)
- 72.2 percent at home
- San Francisco top under team in NFL, under 5-1 by -9.6 points per game
- Teams under by 8.5 or more in week 7 or later, go over 62-35
- San Francisco worst SoS in NFC
- San Francisco getting .2 yards per rush and .5 yards per pass attempt above what opponent normally allows
- Niners allow 4.1 yards per carry teams normally getting 3.9
- All okay, but not for 6-0 SU team
- Carolina is better with Kyle Allen
- Fading teams that gave up a combined 15 or less last three games is 16-6-1 ats including 9-1 road (Carolina)
The pick: Carolina +5.5