Joe Duffy is 5-3 for week, nailing only Wise Guy UIC. NFL total is up. We have added two night college basketball sides for a 3-0 sweep. Get the picks now 

COLLEGE BASKETBALL 

TARLETON STATE +26.5 Texas A&M 

I worked with a journeyman handicapper on the score phones who would bend over backwards to manufacture so-called “intangibles” into his picks. And boy did he reach. But tonight one falls right on our lap–a legitimate intangible.

One of our Golden Rules of betting is that we cannot manufacture emotion. Tarleton State makes their Division I debut, that is against a fellow DI foe. This is their Final 4. Of course they want to keep it competitive and will have a big emotional edge. Not that they need an extra carrot, but they can really around the homecoming of their head coach Billy Gillispie. Though I don’t buy too much into the fact one coach does not want to embarrass the other, A&M’s coach is Buzz Williams, a good friend of Billy and I highly doubt he wants to humiliate Tarleton State on such a big day for the program. 

State has some new talent and will have an element of surprise. MasseyRatings has this a 23-point game. So does KenPom. Not shockingly, the public is betting on the chalk, making it a decent contrarian bet. Another Golden Rule is knowing the public loves certainty and hates uncertainty. They are terrified to bet on the box of chocolates, which is why Tarleton State is getting extra points.