JDP continues to take handicapping to a brand-new level at 36-22 all. This includes Tigers has huge dogs each of the previous two nights cashing in. NBA sweep means 16-6 lately there. Three days winners in MLB, five night, all Wise Guys.
Two NBA Wise Guys, but includes rare day game 4:30 ET among three NBA.
Free NBA pick
DALLAS -2.5 Memphis
You would look at each team’s record and see that Dallas is 29-24 SU, Memphis is 27-25. Those records are close enough that with home court advantage, seeing the road team laying 2.5. But we have an angle that compares advanced metrics to the line and record and isolates undervalued to overvalued teams and that is the case here with Mavs having and angle 414-212-11 favoring them. Road favorites that shoot substantially more three-pointers than league average are 1265-1027-49.
Dallas has lost two straight and 3-of-4 but nice bounceback angle that is 883-699-25. Fade home underdogs off win under specific situations is 78-33-1. With Memphis hotter team at 5-2 last seven, many more angles using the oddsmakers knowledge against them going with better but colder team.
NBA Trends
- Milwaukee 30-10 against the spread in its last 40 games when the spread is between -11.5 and -7.5
- Kings over 60-38-2 last 100
- San Antonio under 16-1 as a road favorite off a win as a road favorite facing an opponent averaging more than five blocks per game
- Detroit 17-1 when the spread is between 6 and 10 following a loss
- Milwaukee under 21-2 off a 10+ win in a road game in which they never trailed
- Memphis under 28-11 at home
- Timberwolves 44-70-2 last 116
Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Miami Heat (62) which is high for an underdog, Toronto (59) significant because the public again backing underdogs
Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Milwaukee (85), Chicago (85)
Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: San Antonio, Chicago
Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: