As we dive into Week 1 of the college football season, weather conditions often play a pivotal role in how games unfold, especially when it comes to betting on totals. Understanding and exploiting these weather-related trends can give you an edge over the sportsbooks. Here, we’ll break down key weather factors to consider and how they can impact your bets, particularly in non-conference matchups to beat the sportsbooks.
High Temperatures and Low Winds Favor the Over
One trend that has stood the test of time is the impact of high temperatures combined with low winds on the total points scored in non-conference games. When temperatures soar and the wind is calm, defenses tend to wear down more quickly, especially as offensive players push the pace. The data supports this, showing that in non-conference games with low winds (under 13 mph) and high temperatures, the Over hits at a rate of 194-133-7 when the total is set at 58 or less. A free pick this week is backed by computer angles.
Reasoning:
Defensive Fatigue: Defensive players are constantly in pursuit, which means they expend more energy in the heat compared to offensive linemen, whose primary job is to hold the line and protect the ball carrier. As the game progresses, defenses tire more quickly, leading to more big plays and higher scores.
Offensive Advantage: Non-conference games often lack the familiarity that conference matchups bring. This lack of familiarity generally benefits the offense, as play-callers can exploit mismatches and defensive schemes that are less prepared for their specific strategies.
Based on the latest weather forecasts at press time, the following Week 1 non-conference games fall into this category, making the Over an attractive bet:
Clemson vs. Georgia
Wyoming vs. Arizona State
Boise State vs. Georgia Southern
Old Dominion vs. South Carolina
Miami (FL) vs. Florida
UTEP vs. Nebraska
Virginia Tech vs. Vanderbilt
In these games, expect the offenses to capitalize on the conditions, pushing the total points scored over the posted line.
Wind Speed Over 13 mph Favors the Under
While high temperatures can favor the Over, high wind speeds often do the opposite. When winds exceed 13 mph, the Under has hit at a rate of 683-501-14. The reason for this is simple: wind disrupts the passing game, making it difficult for quarterbacks to accurately deliver the ball and for kickers to convert long field goals. Additionally, wind can limit the effectiveness of long punts and kickoffs, resulting in worse field positions and fewer scoring opportunities.
At press time, there are no Week 1 games with expected wind speeds over 13 mph. However, this is a key trend to monitor throughout the season, especially in open-air stadiums where wind can have a significant impact.
Conclusion
Weather conditions are a critical but often overlooked factor in betting on college football. As Week 1 approaches, keep an eye on the forecasts and leverage these trends to your advantage. In high-temperature, low-wind, non-conference matchups with totals set at 58 or less, the Over has historically been a profitable play. Conversely, when winds pick up over 13 mph, leaning towards the Under can be the smarter bet. Stay informed, bet smart, and capitalize on these weather-related edges to maximize your returns this college football season.
Grandmaster Handicapper Joe Duffy is 13-7 with all football bets. An insane 15 winning picks are up for week 1 college football at OffshoreInsiders.com