Army fits into a momentum angle that is 137-67-6. Plus, Army has a legit chance at a Cinderella season along with appropriately Navy. Thus, you can see how they can use style points as much as anyone. While NFL and NBA are about regression to the mean, college football is the biggest momentum sports in betting.
Big bets this weekend!
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💥 9 of the 11 Saturday winners are sides!
🔥 Thursday NFL OU, but Sunday brings one of the strongest portfolios in a long time. 🏈 Lions vs. Vikings is the NFC North Game of the Year.
🤯 Get ready to have your mind blown when we reveal the pro betting system that is a staggering 18-1 ATS this century.
✨ 6 Sunday winners led by 2 Wise Guys, the strongest bets in gambling.
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Oddstrader: San Francisco 27-21 (good edge to Niners)
BetQL: San Francisco 27-23
Massey: San Francisco 26-23
Betting pros: San Francisco -2.8, 47.3 with UNDER covering 56%, Seattle 52%
Action Network: San Francisco -3, 47.5 (lean UNDER)
Systems:
Road teams that had at least one fumble last game versus opponent that had 11 or fewer third down attempts are 567-439-20. (SFN)
Trends:
Seattle 10-1 on a short week and off a game of two or fewer interceptions is 10-1
Free pick from Joe Duffy:
UTEP +19.5 Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky blew a 13-point fourth quarter lead last game. Teams that blew at least an 11-point fourth quarter lead is 101-72-3. Sportsline has us covering 58% of simulations, winning 40-17.
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Medium range total, both teams off a win, one as a favorite one as a dog, both off a cover, goes under 62-33-4. As we will admit, this traded system is somewhat backfitted and less dominant the last three years, not a premium play. However, one of the top sharps, one who is having a good season again, has this bet.
Systems:
Thursday favorites after week 4 under specific situations that apply in this game are 129-73-3 (Atlanta)
Tampa just second road game, but they are 1-0, while Atlanta is 1-2 at home SU. Anti-splits angle about fading road teams with a significantly better road winning percentage than home team’s home winning percentage is 116-68-8 (Atlanta)
First half of the season underdogs off less than a TD are 234-148-7 under specific situations that apply in this game (Tampa)
Go against home teams in a short week if they averaged less than 45.8 yards per punt in the last series meeting is 24-6 (Tampa)
Go against conference teams off a high-scoring home game if not with extreme rest is 612-483-27 (Atlanta)
Since 2024 first or only series meeting with a total of 44 or less goes UNDER 481-362-17 includind113-81-3 if divisional (UNDER)
Primetime games under 78-49-1 last 3 seasons (8-7 this year)
Public loves overs, so books need unders says it’s not coincidental
Trends
Tampa 9-1 ATS road, Atlanta 0-3 ATS home this year and 3-10 favorites last 2 years
Curt Cousins 8-3 primetime, Baker Mayfield 3-8, but Atlanta 3-9 under the lights
Cousins under 9-1 last 10, Mayfield under 13-2 in primetime
Tampa 10-3 as dogs last 2 years, including 8-1 road underdogs
Ron Tolbert is the head ref and unders 43-26 with him
Notes:
Tampa with the third highest blitz rate in the NFL this season but Cousins most TDs against the blitz since 2018 at 68
Atlanta without C Drew Dalman, starting LB Troy Anderson
Tampa without S Antoine Winfield; #3 and #4 WRs Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer
Prop bets
Cade Otton (TB) over 28.5 receiving yards
Integrated more into offense and Tampa’s WR depth thinned, so safety valve, especially in a short week, where tougher to throw in more wrinkles. New OC Liam Coen has Mayfield throwing quicker and shorter passes
Rachaad White (TB) OVER 9.5 carries
He is averaging 10.3 this season and is bigger than teammate Bucky Irving, so on a short week, should get a 60-40 or better split on carries
The Fins are far and away the worst spread team in the NFL at 0-4 and -15.6 margin of cover. Regression towards the mean angle that says go with a horrible ATS team is 292-196-7. Speaking of regression, in the name of full disclosure its historic success is greater than in recent years. Underdogs looking for at least their third straight win in the series are 19-4. Teams that have allowed substantially more points than expected over the last two games, based on delta points allowed are 40-10-2. Fading favorites that are almost always in an underdog role is 167-103-13. The Fins have looked poor, but this week they are the NFL winning bet.
🏈 3 Thursday night sides: NFL and 2 CFB. 📊 Friday CFB total 🔥 Saturday: CFB Total of the Year among 4 Wise Guys, plus 8 Majors. 🏈Named play among 8 Sunday NFL, 3 are Wise Guy bets! We added early morning London winner. All this at OffshoreInsiders.com
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