The official betting preview of pro gamblers for Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta from Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy. 

• 3 Thursday night sides: NFL and 2 CFB
• Friday CFB total 
• Saturday: CFB Total of the Year among 4 Wise Guys, plus 8 Majors. 
• Named play among 8 Sunday NFL, 3 are Wise Guy bets! We added early morning London winner.

Joe Duffy’s Picks at OffshoreInsiders.com

Tampa-Atlanta (-1.5,44)

Opened: Atlanta -3, 44

75% of bets, 86% of money on Tampa

80% of bets, 75% of handle on OVER 

Free winning bet:

Tampa-Atlanta UNDER 44

Medium range total, both teams off a win, one as a favorite one as a dog, both off a cover, goes under 62-33-4. As we will admit, this traded system is somewhat backfitted and less dominant the last three years, not a premium play. However, one of the top sharps, one who is having a good season again, has this bet. 

Systems:

Thursday favorites after week 4 under specific situations that apply in this game are 129-73-3 (Atlanta)

Tampa just second road game, but they are 1-0, while Atlanta is 1-2 at home SU. Anti-splits angle about fading road teams with a significantly better road winning percentage than home team’s home winning percentage is 116-68-8 (Atlanta)

First half of the season underdogs off less than a TD are 234-148-7 under specific situations that apply in this game (Tampa)

Go against home teams in a short week if they averaged less than 45.8 yards per punt in the last series meeting is 24-6 (Tampa)

Go against conference teams off a high-scoring home game if not with extreme rest is 612-483-27 (Atlanta)

Since 2024 first or only series meeting with a total of 44 or less goes UNDER 481-362-17 includind113-81-3 if divisional (UNDER)

Primetime games under 78-49-1 last 3 seasons (8-7 this year)

• Public loves overs, so books need unders says it’s not coincidental 
  

Trends

Tampa 9-1 ATS road, Atlanta 0-3 ATS home this year and 3-10 favorites last 2 years

Curt Cousins 8-3 primetime, Baker Mayfield 3-8, but Atlanta 3-9 under the lights 

Cousins under 9-1 last 10, Mayfield under 13-2 in primetime 

Tampa 10-3 as dogs last 2 years, including 8-1 road underdogs 

Ron Tolbert is the head ref and unders 43-26 with him

Notes:

Tampa with the third highest blitz rate in the NFL this season but Cousins most TDs against the blitz since 2018 at 68

Atlanta without C Drew Dalman, starting LB Troy Anderson

Tampa without S Antoine Winfield; #3 and #4 WRs Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer 

Prop bets

Cade Otton (TB) over 28.5 receiving yards

Integrated more into offense and Tampa’s WR depth thinned, so safety valve, especially in a short week, where tougher to throw in more wrinkles. New OC Liam Coen has Mayfield throwing quicker and shorter passes 

Rachaad White (TB) OVER 9.5 carries 

He is averaging 10.3 this season and is bigger than teammate Bucky Irving, so on a short week, should get a 60-40 or better split on carries

Power ratings:

Massey: Tampa 23-20 (TB ATS and money)

OddsTrader: Atlanta 22-19 (lean UNDER)

Sportsline: Atlanta 24-23

BetQL: Atlanta 23-21

StatSharp: 22-22 tie

Action: Atlanta -2, 44

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