Before burying the recently concluded NFL season, savvy
gamblers will want to sift through those decaying bones to determine if the
gridiron carcass left any clues that could be used to uncover a successful NFL
betting strategy when the 2008 campaign kicks off in September.
One angle that has clicked for several straight years again took the blue
ribbon in 2007: If you want to be an NFL betting winner, bet a winner. Simply,
teams that were straight up (SU) winners on the field also were highly
successful at the windows, against the spread (ATS).
In fact, of the 13 teams that posted regular season winning records, 12 of them
also had winning marks against the spread. The 13th team, the
Washington Redskins, was .500 ATS, meaning that no team with a straight up
winning record had a losing record against the spread. The overall pointspread
log for these 13 teams was 126-77-
62.0 win percentage, a figure for which any NFL betting enthusiast would sell
his throwback jersey.
Yes, hindsight always is 20/20 but was it so difficult to predict that teams
such as the Patriots, Colts, Chargers, Seahawks and Cowboys would have straight
up winning records? Some shrewd bettors even allowed the oddsmakers and
bookmakers to do their homework for them, relying on regular season over/under
win total propositions as the basis for their wagers. The above-mentioned teams
all had totals of 10 victories or more entering last season.
On the other cleat, of the 15 teams that had straight up losing records, only
one, the Buffalo Bills, had a winning mark against the spread. Maybe it was the
snow that was the great pointspread equalizer in
Those 15 teams were 92-141-7 against the spread, a cover percentage of .394,
meaning that those who wisely bet against those teams collected on more than 60
percent of their wagers.
Predictably enough, the four teams that finished with straight up .500 records
also were right around that mark against the spread.
|
NFL TEAMS WITH REGULAR SEASON SU WINNING RECORDS |
||
|
Team |
SU |
ATS |
|
|
16-0 |
10-6 |
|
|
13-3 |
|
|
|
13-3 |
9-7 |
|
|
13-3 |
9-7 |
|
|
11-5 |
11-5 |
|
|
11-5 |
11-5 |
|
|
10-6 |
12-4 |
|
|
10-6 |
10-6 |
|
|
10-6 |
|
|
|
10-6 |
9-7 |
|
|
10-6 |
|
|
|
9-7 |
9-7 |
|
|
9-7 |
|
|
Total (13 teams) |
145-63 |
126-77-5 |
|
NFL TEAMS WITH REGULAR SEASON SU LOSING RECORDS |
||
|
Team |
SU |
ATS |
|
|
1-15 |
|
|
|
3-13 |
5-11 |
|
|
4-12 |
6-10 |
|
|
4-12 |
|
|
|
4-12 |
|
|
|
4-12 |
|
|
|
5-11 |
3-13 |
|
|
5-11 |
5-11 |
|
|
7-9 |
6-10 |
|
|
7-9 |
|
|
|
7-9 |
|
|
|
7-9 |
7-9 |
|
|
7-9 |
8-8 |
|
|
7-9 |
10-6 |
|
Total (15 teams) |
79-161 |
92-141-7 |
|
NFL TEAMS WITH REGULAR SEASON SU .500 RECORDS |
||
|
Team |
SU |
ATS |
|
|
8-8 |
8-8 |
|
|
8-8 |
8-8 |
|
|
8-8 |
|
|
|
8-8 |
9-7 |
|
Total (4 teams) |
32-32 |
32-30-2 |
So, when it comes to NFL betting, if you want to be a winner, bet a winner.
|
This article was written on behalf of OffshoreInsiders.com |