NBA Playoffs 2019 Betting Preview

Joe Duffy’s playoff notebook. Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com and widely accepted as top betting expert in the world. Betonline, home of the opening line has a $20,000 NBA bracket contest!

Blind zig-zag now 555-534-12 all time including 57-74 previous two years

2016 was all-time worst 22-42

Nets vs. Sixers

Joel Embiid is questionable
Added Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris to Embiid and Simmons
Nets split series and had highest offensive efficiency against them of any team in league
Nets playing with “house money”
Nets play 2^nd most zone defense in NBA, so will give Philly a different look
- Especially if Embiid healthy
Sixers starting line-up of Simmons, Redick, Butler, Harris, Embid played on 10 games together in the 28 games after Harris trade
- Just 161 total minutes
With Embiid off floor, Nets outscored Sixers by 40 points in just 58 minutes

Pick: Nets in six

Magic vs. Raptors

Orlando an incredible 22-9 down stretch
First playoffs since 2012, will they be fat and happy?
DeMar DeRozan addition by subtraction as Kawhi Leonard is much better
Kyle Lowrey less reckless on offense with DeRozan gone
Magic with a combined 33 playoff games (28 by D.J. Augustin)
Raptors starting five with 417
Split season series at 2, but Magic cumulative +40 points
LeBron James out of Raptors way
Solid forward Jonathan Isaac question for Game 1 for Magic

Pick: Raptors in six

Clippers vs. Warriors

Boogie Cousins make team worse
- Carmelo, Dwight Howard
- Chip on his shoulder and on one-year contract
Golden State 16-2 SU in first round
Clippers “house money” as in playoffs after trading Tobias Harris
Clippers Patrick Beverly plays with an edge and may get under Steph Curry’s skin
Clippers with decent bench, but starters not capable of competing
Golden State’s starting 5 was No. 1 on defense, post All-Star break
- Curry, Cousins, Thompson, Durant, Green

Pick: Golden State in five

Spurs vs. Nuggets

The Spurs’ leading scorer, DeMar DeRozan simply misses too many shots
Denver Nikola Jokic difficult to defend, but Pop is expert and they can make adjustments as series goes on
Off incredibly disappointing year Gary Harris of Denver has upside
Denver with big size edge, big in postseason where half-court is more important
- Millsap, Plumlee, Jokic, but Spurs only have LaMarcus Aldridge
Denver biggest home/road dichotomy with points per 100 possessions in league
- 13.1 better at home in thin air
Spurs third best home defense, but 16^th on road

Series pick: Denver in six

Sunday

Pacers-Celtics

Boston was preseason favorite in the East, but No. 4 seed
1-7 SU road playoffs last year
Pacers without Oladipo and Celtics without Marcus Smart
- Jaylen Brown takes over for Smart
When Aron Baynes took over for Marcus Morris, Boston went 5-1 SU down stretch
Gordon Hayward averaged 16.9 points per game in final seven games
Indiana still a solid eighth defensively after losing Oladipo
Celtics best team in East versus Pacers defense getting 117.6 points per 100 possessions

Series pick: Boston sweep

Pistons vs. Bucks

Detroit with good frontline of Blake Griffin and Andrew Drummond
- Griffin less than 100 percent
Pistons enter cold losing 7-of-11
Teams with 8.8 or better points per game margin are 65-53 in postseason (Milwaukee)
- 56.2 percent at home
Detroit dangerous because the hit 200 more three-point shots than they gave up
Milwaukee best defense in restricted area, big in postseason
Bucks won all 4 regular season

Pick: Bucks in four

Thunder vs. Blazers

Jusuf Nurkic out for Blazers
- 15.6 points per game, 10.4 rebounds, 3.2 assists (very good for center)
- Enes Kanter takes over
  - Good offense, weak defense
Thunder great 1-2 punch for Russel Westbrook and Paul George
- George shoulder sore
OKC 4-0 regular season SU
OKC defends pick and roll very well, second best in league, which Damian Lillard is best

Pick: Oklahoma City in six

Jazz vs. Rockets

No team more susceptible to look-ahead but also have chip on their shoulder
Rockets as fourth seed would play Warriors next
Series split 2-2 regular season
No. 2 offense in Houston vs. No. 2 defense in Utah
- Rockets 99 points points per 100 possessions was fewest points Houston scored against any Western Conference team
How healthy is Derrick Favors for Jazz?
- Protects rim against Houston guards penetrating
- If he is out, Jazz will be smaller and quicker, so his injury definitely effects total both ends
  - Without him, total should go up
With Donovan Mitchell, Jazz have firepower to pull of upset