So long, Vick; the NFL betting community is abuzz with Brett Favre chatter this week. He finally signed with Minnesota and sportsbooks responded, upping the Vikings’ odds of being a powerhouse. They were +180 to win the NFC North a last week and now they’re +125. The assumption is that pocket passer Favre makes the Vikings better, but I wonder how true that is. Here are a few factors to consider in your betting management.

FAVRE’S FITNESS

Favre has a rep for not enjoying training and preferring to simply gunsling footballs all summer. However, at this stage of his career, his success correlates with how hard he trains. When he had his massive comeback season in 2007, he had hired a personal trainer and worked himself into great shape the offseason prior. Before starting with the Jets in 2008, he didn’t work out much, instead just tossing balls to high schoolers, and he immediately regressed. This offseason, Favre has done very little training, so he’s more likely to be the Jets incarnation than the Packers one. That means he’ll take a lot of hits, make some hurried throws and, quite possibly, throw as many interceptions as touchdowns. In other words, he’ll do what Sage Rosenfels would’ve done at a fraction of the price.

RUNNING GAME

Adrian Peterson is the man, but will Favre make him better? AP isn’t a great pass catcher. He excels when he gets the rock 20-plus times a game and bludgeons defenses. With Favre in the lineup, will coach Brad Childress feel obligated to throw more and use AP less? It could weaken the running game.

RECEIVERS

At the absolute best, the Vikings receiving corps matches what Favre had at his disposal in New York. Bernard Berrian and Sidney Rice can get deep, but can Favre still throw the deep ball? Percy Harvin is the real wild card. He and Favre could form a dynamic tandem, but Harvin is a rookie—out of bust-heavy Florida. He’s no guarantee to flourish. It’s thus fair to wonder if Favre will have a tough, between-the-20s, surehanded guy like Donald Driver or Laveranues Coles in Minny at all.

In conclusion, I’d be careful with the Vikings in my online betting. Favre could help them but he could just as easily hurt them, as he’ll force them to fix what isn’t broken on offense. Remember that before making Minnesota your NFL picks this season.