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Rotisserie Experts Need Not Be Chicken When It Comes to Betting Baseball
Joe Duffy (www.godspicks.com)
Within the last year, I wrote an article about how sports investing and fantasy sports know-how can have common characteristics, but I declared how it is ten carats on the baseball diamond. There is no doubt that evaluations specifically on the alleged
America’s pastime warrant an essay in and of itself.
If one can distinguish there are both differences and similarities between winning with your MVP fantasy team and winning at MVP sportsbook, a great roto GM can be one heck of a prognosticator as well.
Our favorite rotisserie site Rotowire.com has injuries and analysis of such that is of great worth to the gambler as well. They give diagnosis of players’ slumps, injuries, the injury replacements et al in their “recommendation” section. It has a lot of nuggets that make food for thought for my daily handicapping.
They are also my favorite source for the scoop on starting pitchers coming up from the minor leagues. Ah, starting pitchers coming up to the Show. There is the biggest comparison and contrast from gambling to roto managing.
In fantasy sports you are projecting his long-term worth, but in gambling the “long term” is his next nine innings or less. This is not to say that one not need to envisage what he will do longer term. In fact it is quite contrary.
So often top prospects come up from the minors and have a few good outings before running into some bumps in the road. The general school of thought is that once they get around the league the scouting gets better.
This is perhaps somewhat true, but more times than not teams bring up players when they are in a nice groove. It is rare that a blue chip prospect is brought up to the bright lights when they were struggling on the farm.
However necessity can be the mother of rushing guys to the majors. Therefore the handicapper more than the fantasy guru is not worried how the touted fireballer will be down the road, but in his next outing.
Was it injuries or just plain bad pitching that forced the parent club to bring him up or was it clearly the opportune time? A pitcher’s last three or so starts in the minors is much more important to the ‘capper than the roto geek.
Few things are more of a crapshoot (not even a crapshoot) than pitching prospects. Even those who do pan out rarely do right away. You can throw out your Todd Van Poppel, Rick Ankeil, Lance Dickson and Willie Banks rookie cards. Do not even get me started on Brien Taylor.
Often the square handicapper outsmarts himself thinking he is so far ahead of the curve knowing the in vogue pitching prospects. Because of the previously stated tendency to bring the star up when he’s in the proper “zone” going with the Young Turk can often pay off in the short run.
But with each win comes higher expectations and the true test comes when adversity strikes. That’s when we exploit the Johnny-come-lately not being able to live up to his press clippings.
Even those who do pan out are often late bloomers.
What does this mean from a handicapping standpoint? Knowing the square player outfoxes himself, the hotshot who has proven nothing more times than not proves to be overvalued. However often they get out of the gate quickly before fading.
That is why it is so important to retrace the recent starts preceding his call-up. Of course the last 3-5 starts at AAA or as can be the case AA should not have the same credence as we weigh MLB starts, but they certainly must be weighed accordingly.
Like we said, the fantasy sites often have the best relevant scouting report. But remember Rotowire and other sites are more concerned whether or not the pitcher in question becomes the latest flavor of the month. We just want to know if he has the hot hand and for how long.
Once the chic media’s latest phenom hits his first bump in the road, we fade him hard. Bucking the flavor of the month club has made us a lot of money of the years, but the fantasy information has greatly aided us in not jumping the gun too soon.
As far as other sources in the fantasy sports realm, ESPN’s Fantasy Power Picks are excellent, though their actual ratings very flawed. For example they only compare bottom line ERA over a period when computing their power ratings and give no consideration to innings pitched. A hurler whose ERA in five innings of the previous month is 1.50 is given more weight than one whose ERA is 2.09 in 32 innings.
We as handicappers break down the numbers, but ESPN’s Power Picks at least displays and parses them very well.
Don’t make too much fun of the rotogeek in your office who is living and dying off of the boxscores. If he is perennially at the top of his league standings, he may be able to help make your investing fantasies come true. You can bet on it.
Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godspicks.com. He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, Gamblers Zoo national radio show, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show, Gridiron Gamblers, Pro Fantasy Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show. His daily news and notes are at www.joeduffy.net
His Wise Guy Plays available exclusively at www.godspicks.com where daily sports handicapping information is available to crush the sportsbooks. Godspicks.com has daily sports betting free winners, news, notes and trends. Media inquiries and all questions: godspicks@bellsouth.net