When a line appears counterintuitive to the points per game margins to date, go with the message the oddsmakers are sending and bet on the seemingly contradictory team is 896-610-31.
đ„ NBA Betting Trends for Friday! đ„ From OffshoreInsiders.com đđ°
đč OKC âĄïž đ 488-373-11 ATS before All-Star break vs. teams without extreme rest đ 82-39 ATS if not off OT but led by 3+ points after 1Q
đč Sixers đ”đŽ đ 161-113-4 ATS in regular season vs. teams off a game with â€48 rebounds
Top expert pick is from Joe Duffy. đ Grandmaster has 4ïžâŁ NBA winning bets + college basketball! đ„ Yes, the famed đ€Ż counterintuitive line in the NBA and when teams are off great đĄïž defensive performancesâone in college hoops! đŻđ°All at OffshoreInsiders.com
San Francisco (-3.5, 49.5)-Seattle betting angles
Opened -5, 46.5
61% of bets, 71% of money on SFN
69% of bets, 68% of cash on OVER
Power ratings:
SportsLine: San Francisco wins 26-24
Oddstrader: San Francisco 27-21 (good edge to Niners)
BetQL: San Francisco 27-23
Massey: San Francisco 26-23
Betting pros: San Francisco -2.8, 47.3 with UNDER covering 56%, Seattle 52%
Action Network: San Francisco -3, 47.5 (lean UNDER)
Systems:
Road teams that had at least one fumble last game versus opponent that had 11 or fewer third down attempts are 567-439-20. (SFN)
Trends:
Seattle 10-1 on a short week and off a game of two or fewer interceptions is 10-1
Free pick from Joe Duffy:
UTEP +19.5 Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky blew a 13-point fourth quarter lead last game. Teams that blew at least an 11-point fourth quarter lead is 101-72-3. Sportsline has us covering 58% of simulations, winning 40-17.
Top expert pick is from Joe Duffy: đ„ Okay pros! đŻ Breaking News: AFC West Weeknight Game of the Year kicks off another NFL winning week! đNamed plays from Joe Duffy are as close to a true lock in gambling as it gets! đđČ That continued yesterday with the first of MLB postseason Mets as NL Playoff Day Game of the Year part of a 2-0 sweep. âŸđđ⟠MLB side at 6:08 ET plus MLB player prop. đ College Football side added. Frankly, ânamed playsâ are almost automatic! đŻđ„đ° Get it all at OffshoreInsiders.com
Medium range total, both teams off a win, one as a favorite one as a dog, both off a cover, goes under 62-33-4. As we will admit, this traded system is somewhat backfitted and less dominant the last three years, not a premium play. However, one of the top sharps, one who is having a good season again, has this bet.
Systems:
Thursday favorites after week 4 under specific situations that apply in this game are 129-73-3 (Atlanta)
Tampa just second road game, but they are 1-0, while Atlanta is 1-2 at home SU. Anti-splits angle about fading road teams with a significantly better road winning percentage than home teamâs home winning percentage is 116-68-8 (Atlanta)
First half of the season underdogs off less than a TD are 234-148-7 under specific situations that apply in this game (Tampa)
Go against home teams in a short week if they averaged less than 45.8 yards per punt in the last series meeting is 24-6 (Tampa)
Go against conference teams off a high-scoring home game if not with extreme rest is 612-483-27 (Atlanta)
Since 2024 first or only series meeting with a total of 44 or less goes UNDER 481-362-17 includind113-81-3 if divisional (UNDER)
Primetime games under 78-49-1 last 3 seasons (8-7 this year)
Public loves overs, so books need unders says itâs not coincidental
Trends
Tampa 9-1 ATS road, Atlanta 0-3 ATS home this year and 3-10 favorites last 2 years
Curt Cousins 8-3 primetime, Baker Mayfield 3-8, but Atlanta 3-9 under the lights
Cousins under 9-1 last 10, Mayfield under 13-2 in primetime
Tampa 10-3 as dogs last 2 years, including 8-1 road underdogs
Ron Tolbert is the head ref and unders 43-26 with him
Notes:
Tampa with the third highest blitz rate in the NFL this season but Cousins most TDs against the blitz since 2018 at 68
Atlanta without C Drew Dalman, starting LB Troy Anderson
Tampa without S Antoine Winfield; #3 and #4 WRs Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer
Prop bets
Cade Otton (TB) over 28.5 receiving yards
Integrated more into offense and Tampaâs WR depth thinned, so safety valve, especially in a short week, where tougher to throw in more wrinkles. New OC Liam Coen has Mayfield throwing quicker and shorter passes
Rachaad White (TB) OVER 9.5 carries
He is averaging 10.3 this season and is bigger than teammate Bucky Irving, so on a short week, should get a 60-40 or better split on carries
The Fins are far and away the worst spread team in the NFL at 0-4 and -15.6 margin of cover. Regression towards the mean angle that says go with a horrible ATS team is 292-196-7. Speaking of regression, in the name of full disclosure its historic success is greater than in recent years. Underdogs looking for at least their third straight win in the series are 19-4. Teams that have allowed substantially more points than expected over the last two games, based on delta points allowed are 40-10-2. Fading favorites that are almost always in an underdog role is 167-103-13. The Fins have looked poor, but this week they are the NFL winning bet.
đ 3 Thursday night sides: NFL and 2 CFB. đ Friday CFB total đ„ Saturday: CFB Total of the Year among 4 Wise Guys, plus 8 Majors. đNamed play among 8 Sunday NFL, 3 are Wise Guy bets! We added early morning London winner. All this at OffshoreInsiders.com
Are the Commanders for real? Can anyone beat Minnesota? Will the Jags ever earn a W? The best NFL handicappers know this answer.
A lot of storylines emerged from Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season, and again, there were a lot of upsets.
Below, we take a peek ahead into Week 5.
Every Friday, Betonline releases look-ahead lines for the following week. The look-ahead numbers are taken down on Sunday right before the games start, and then they are re-opened Sunday evening.
If thereâs significant movement (1.5 points or more) from the look-ahead spread or total that are released prior to Week 4, that will be notated under the opening line below.
NFL Week 5 spread are subject to change at Betonline from these NFL opening lines.
NFL Week 5 Opening Odds
Thursday, October 3
Bucs @ Falcons (-2.5, 42.5)
Sunday, October 6
Jets vs. Vikings (-2.5, 41.5)
Panthers @ Bears (-4.5, 43.5)
Ravens @ Bengals (+1.5, 48.5)
(Look-ahead total was 47)
Dolphins @ Patriots (PK, 36)
(Look-ahead total was 42.5)
Browns @ Commanders (-3, 44)
Colts @ Jags (-2.5, 45.5)
Bills @ Texans (+2.5, 47)
(Look-ahead spread was Bills -1)
Raiders @ Broncos (-2, 36)
Cardinals @ 49ers (-7, 48.5)
Packers @ Rams (+3, 46.5)
Giants @ Seahawks (-6, 42)
Cowboys @ Steelers (-2, 41)
(Look-ahead spread was a pick âem)
Monday, October 7
Saints @ Chiefs (-5.5, 43)
(Look-ahead total was 45.5)
Get the winning bets at OffshoreInsiders.com We uses NFL opening lines, lookahead lines, with other power ratings, computer sims, betting models and more.
Opening Line:Â Cowboys -4, Total 44.5 Current Line:Â Cowboys -6, Total 45.5 Betting Percentages:
Dallas:Â 83% of bets, 80% of money
Over:Â 66% of wagers, 60% of handle
Key Systems & NFL Betting Trends:
Thursday Night Road Teams in Close Games: Teams like Dallas, playing on the road on a Thursday night when the game is not expected to be a blowout, have historically thrived, going 35-9 ATS (Against The Spread).
Home Underdogs Off a Road Win: The Giants find themselves in a favorable spot here. Home underdogs coming off a win as a road underdog, in specific situational trends like this, are 164-117-13 ATS, pointing to a potential cover by New York.
Fumbles and Third Downs: Dallas also benefits from a key statâteams that fumbled in their previous game but are now playing an opponent with fewer than 12 third-down conversions (as the Giants have) are 562-435-20 ATS. This stat edges in Dallasâ favor.
High Fumble Totals and the Over: Since 2015, if one team had at least one fumble in its last game and the current total is 45 or higher, the game tends to go over the total, hitting at 137-99-4. This points toward a potential over play in this matchup.
NFL Picks Organic Factors to Consider:
Motivation vs. Perception: Bettors should be cautious of wagering on the “team that needs it more.” Dallas may have shown fight in their previous game, but some argue the final score made it look closer than it was.
Series Dominance: The Cowboys completely dominated the Giants in last seasonâs matchups, winning both games by a combined 89-17. However, division games can be notoriously unpredictable, especially with erratic quarterbacks on both sides.
Sharp Insight on 1st Quarter: One sharp bettor loves Dallas to come out strong after last weekâs humiliating performance. Their first-quarter bet on Dallas -0.5 is a strategy to watch for those seeking early game value.
NFL Handicapping Trends to Watch:
Giantsâ Resilience: New York has shown a knack for bouncing back after being an underdog. They are 13-0 over the past three seasons in games where they were an underdog of 4.5 points or more and were tied no more than once during the game. This suggests they perform well under pressure.
Brian Dabollâs Magic: Giants head coach Brian Daboll is 15-2 ATS when his team is not winless and coming off a game in which they were not favored by at least 4.5 points.
Giantsâ Home Under Trend: Since 2020, Giants home games have trended under the total, going 24-8 in games where they aren’t seeking revenge within the same season.
Computer Models & Power Ratings:
BetQL:Â Cowboys 27.5, Giants 19 (Slight lean to Dallas)
Sportsline:Â Cowboys 25, Giants 19
Action Network:Â Cowboys -4.7, Total 45.1
Massey Ratings:Â Cowboys 24, Giants 19
Oddstrader:Â Cowboys 26, Giants 17 (Lean to Dallas)
BettingPros:Â Cowboys -6, Total 42.5 (Slight lean to the under)
Despite some variance across models, the consensus leans toward a Dallas win by roughly 5-6 points.
Player Prop Bets to Watch:
WanâDale Robinson Over 33.5 Receiving Yards: The Cowboysâ zone defense is likely to leave Robinson as a safety valve. He could see a boost in targets, especially if the Giants are trailing.
Rico Dowdle Over 55.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards: The Cowboysâ two-headed running attack with Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott suggests the younger, fresher Dowdle could see significant work, especially if Dallas builds a lead. The Giants have been vulnerable against the run, making this a solid play.
CeeDee Lamb Over Props: Lamb should be motivated after owning up to mistakes from the previous week. With Andru Phillips out for the Giants, Lamb finds himself in a major mismatch against Deonte Banks, setting him up for a potential breakout performance.
Conclusion: Dallas looks poised to cover, especially with systems favoring Thursday night road teams and fumble-related trends working in their favor. However, the Giantsâ impressive home underdog trends and Brian Dabollâs track record suggest they could keep it closer than expected. This game may also lean toward the over, given the historical trends surrounding higher totals with fumbles in play. Prop bettors should focus on Lamb, Robinson, and Dowdle for value plays.
Expect a competitive NFC East clash with plenty of betting angles to explore!
Betting Percentages: 51% of bets, but only 36% of the money is on the Patriots, signaling possible sharp money on the Jets.
Total Betting: 70% of bets and 52% of the handle are on the Over. out the review of MyBookie
The Jets and Patriots are set to face off in a divisional matchup, with both teams trying to establish dominance in the AFC East. The line has moved in favor of the Patriots since the opening, suggesting some market sentiment shifting toward New England, despite many bettors backing the Jets.
Sharp Money on Jets?
The discrepancy between bets and money is telling. While 51% of bets are on the Patriots, only 36% of the money follows suit, hinting that sharp bettors could be backing the Jets. This is often a key signal when analyzing line movements, especially when public money favors an underdog.
Patriots End Historic Streak as Underdogs
For the first time in 24 matchups, the Patriots enter this game as underdogs. New England has been the favorite in this series for a remarkable stretch, but the tide has turned. The market now seems to undervalue the Patriots, particularly with Jerod Mayo stepping in and injecting some fresh energy.
Patriots Undervalued with Better Head Coach Than Last Season
Jerod Mayo’s impact has given the Patriots a new spark, making them potentially undervalued in this matchup. Conversely, Bill Belichickâs record without Tom Brady is less impressive, winning just 45% of games. The âhoneymoon periodâ under Mayo could give New England a surprise edge.
Key Computer Program Predictions:
BettingPros: Jets -6.8, 38
Massey: Patriots winning 20-17
Sportsline: Jets winning 22-13; under covering 61% of the time; Jets 56% win probability
BetQL: Jets winning 25-16
StatSharp: Patriots winning 16-15
These predictions are a mixed bag, with some simulations favoring the Jets and others siding with the Patriots. The total is another factor to watch, as the under seems to have strong support across various models.
Trends to Watch:
Patriotsâ Dominance in Series: New England has owned this rivalry, going 15-1 straight up (SU) and 11-5 against the spread (ATS) over the last 16 matchups. They have won 8 straight on the road against the Jets and are 5-1 ATS in the NY metro area.
Robert Salehâs September Struggles: Saleh is 1-10 versus the first-half line in September games, being outscored 14.3-5.4 in that period. His teams have dropped 6 straight ATS in the first half in September.
Under Trends: Both teams have leaned heavily toward the under in recent games:
Patriots: 5 straight unders and 0-5 ATS following non-conference games.
Jets: Salehâs teams are 5-0 to the under in September road games, and the Jets are 11-6 to the under in their last 17.
Fourth Quarter Unders: Both teams have been under teams in fourth-quarter scoring, with the Patriots going under in 12 of their last 17 games and the Jets in 11 of 17.
Jets Moneyline and Betting ROI
The Jets are 10-10 straight up (SU) but have been profitable, up 3.1 units with a 14% return on investment (ROI). However, they are just 1-6 ATS as favorites recently and 3-4 SU in such games.
Betting Systems Favor the Patriots
Several betting systems support taking the Patriots as underdogs:
Short-term system: Dogs of 6 or more points are 8-0 ATS this season.
Divisional System: Betting against divisional home favorites with a -4 or worse point margin from the previous season has hit at 46-18, favoring the Patriots.
Player Prop Bets to Target:
Jacoby Brissett (NE) OVER 17 completions:
Some simulators predict Brissett with up to 30 completions. He is likely to rely on short, safe passes, boosting his completion numbers. Another simulation has him at 18.9 completions, still favoring the over.
Antonio Gibson (NE) UNDER 1.5 receptions:
This is a best bet from one of the top simulators, with the expectation that Gibson wonât see many targets in the passing game.
Breece Hall (NYJ) OVER 30.5 receiving yards:
The Patriots have a strong run defense but are more vulnerable against the pass, making Hall a key safety valve for the Jets. Expect him to play a big role in the passing game.
Will McDonald (NYJ) OVER 0.5 sacks:
The Patriots are dealing with injuries on their offensive line, giving McDonald a prime opportunity to make an impact.
Garrett Wilson (NYJ) OVER 64.5 receiving yards:
Aaron Rodgers has a history of favoring his top targets, and Wilson is expected to see plenty of attention. Rodgersâ comfort level with his star receiver should result in Wilson racking up yardage.
Injury Report:
Jets LB C.J. Mosley: Questionable. If Mosley canât play, the Patriots will likely lean on their running game even more.
Patriots LB JaâWhaun Bentley: Out for the season, which is a significant blow to New Englandâs defense.
This matchup between the Patriots and Jets has plenty of interesting angles. The Patriots have historically dominated this series, but the betting market and sharps seem to favor the Jets. With several betting systems supporting the underdog Patriots, this could be a game where the Pats cover the spread, even if the Jets manage to win outright. Player props offer additional value, especially on short completions and receiving yards for both teams.
đ°đ°đ°Top NFL expert pick is from Joe Duffyâs Picks:
đŁ Absolute bombshell! Undefeated with named plays in NFLX, CFB, and NFL this season!
đ AFC Game of the Year drops Thursday night Patriots vs. Jets!
đ Named plays from Joe Duffy are as close to a true lock as it gets in sports!
The Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles are set to clash in what promises to be a thrilling NFL matchup. With Philadelphia currently favored by 2.5 points and the total set at 49 according to MYBookie, this game has already seen interesting movements in betting action. If you’re trying to find an edge in betting this game, examining the betting splits can offer valuable insights into where the sharp money is landing.
Opening Line Movement
The game opened with Philadelphia as a 2.5-point favorite, and the total sitting at 49. These numbers have remained steady, but itâs important to look beyond the static odds and examine the betting activity for more context. MYBookie is one of the best sportsbooks in the world! Check out the review of MyBookie
Betting Splits: Packers Popular, But Not with Big Money
As of now, 67% of all bets are on the Green Bay Packers, indicating that the public favors Aaron Rodgers and company to cover the spread. However, just 32% of the money is backing the Packers, signaling a potential disconnect between public opinion and sharper betting activity.
When we see a high percentage of bets on one side but a lower percentage of money backing the same team, itâs often a sign that larger, more informed bets are coming in on the other side â in this case, the Eagles. Philadelphia, as the home favorite, may be the play of sharper bettors looking to capitalize on public overconfidence in Green Bay.
Over/Under: Public Loves the Over, Sharps Less Certain
On the total, 77% of tickets are on the OVER, yet just 55% of the money is following suit. This is another clear indicator that while casual bettors expect a high-scoring affair, larger wagers are more cautiously optimistic. The smaller percentage of money on the OVER suggests sharper bettors may anticipate a defensive battle or believe that the total line of 49 is a bit too high.
What the Experts Are Saying
đ°đ°đ° Top expert pick: Betting expert Joe Duffy is among the sharpest minds in NFL wagering, and he’s got a strong opinion on the side for this game. Duffyâs reputation for finding value where others donât is unmatched, and heâs got his eyes not only on this NFL matchup but also on key college football plays this weekend.
For those looking to bet with confidence, Joe Duffyâs picks can be found at OffshoreInsiders.com, where his track record speaks for itself. From reading between the lines on betting splits to leveraging insider information, Duffy provides a comprehensive approach to maximizing your sports betting outcomes.
Final Thoughts
Betting splits give us insight into the minds of both public and professional bettors. In the Packers vs. Eagles matchup, the public is favoring Green Bay and the OVER, but the money percentages suggest the sharp play may be on Philadelphia and potentially the UNDER. Whether youâre tailing the sharps or following the public, make sure you have the right information to guide your betting decisions.
Here are some college football trends for week 2. All quoted records are ATS. MYBookie is one of the best sportsbooks in the world! Check out the review of MyBookie
Duke 30-13 non-conferenceÂ
Kansas State 40-22 overallÂ
UNLV 20-5 outside conferenceÂ
Nebraska 3-12 homeÂ
Penn State 30-11 off win
Western Kentucky 9-21 favoritesÂ
Arkansas 0-12 off straight up winÂ
Troy 16-3 away from home
Sam Houston State 15-3 underdogsÂ
Alabama 21-7 home
Bowling Green 13-30 underdogsÂ
Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy a solid and typical 16-10 start to the football season. Friday night college football winner plus 19 Saturday sides and totals, led by five Wise Guy bets, the strongest wager in gambling. Get the picks now
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