Wednesday, November 2, 2022 market report for NBA betting
🏀 Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: New Orleans, Sacramento
🏀 Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Dallas; Chicago UNDER
🏀 Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Miami UNDER
🏀 Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Philadelphia -8 to -5.5, Memphis -2 to -4.5
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NBA sweat barometer, free pick, and more. 💰💰💰Top expert pick is from Joe Duffy. We eek out winning days in both NFL and NBA. I am 13-5 overall in playoffs MLB.MNF total and first World Series pick on side.I am not a degenerate gambler, I am a degenerate handicapper, which is why I have been advising pro gamblers since my bets became public in 1988. Four NBA led by a Wise Guy.Get the picks now
Free NBA Pick ATS
MEMPHIS -2 Utah
Away favorites off loss under specific situations that apply in this game are an outstanding play, especially if not on a long winning streak and playing a team off a home win is 227-133-7. Away favorites off a team off a very close win are 384-271-9. A tightened up version that applies here is 355-235-9. Finally combining away favorites off loss versus teams off that close win is 78-39. Our official outlaw line is -4. The outlaw line is what the line would be without square moves.
Best teams to bet on this year in NBA based on margin of cover.
Team
ATS Record
ATS margin
Cleveland
5-1
+10.7
Oklahoma City
5-1
+9.8
Charlotte
4-2
+8
New Orleans
4-2
+7.6
Portland
5-1
+7.4
NBA betting sweat barometer
Best teams to bet against based on such
Team
ATS Record
ATS margin
LA Clippers
1-5
-12.2
Brooklyn
1-5
-10.3
Golden State
2-5
-9.6
Intel for NBA Picks
Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer.
4:25 Minnesota Gophers in a rout the latest in a splendid life that goes back to scorephone days of last century. Late Info 6-1 recently. NBA this week? 4:25 ET high profile game total on Rams vs. 49ers total at OffshoreInsiders.com
🏈Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Las Vegas, Washington
🏈Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: San Francisco, Arizona; NY Jets UNDER, Buffalo UNDER
🏈Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: NY Jets UNDER
🏈Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Atlanta -6.5 to -4, Tennessee -3.5 to -1
There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks, of course you can also check the top NBA picks to find what to bet on as well. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale.
The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets.
College football market report for Saturday, October 29, 2022
🏈Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: USC, UTEP; Wake Forest OVER
🏈Biggest bets based on percentage of money: Old Dominion, Missouri; Arkansas State UNDER, Boise Sate UNDER, Marshall UNDER
🏈Largest line moves, opener to current: Florida State -20 to -23.5, Toledo -8.5 to -5.5, Oregon -14.5 to -17.5
🏈Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets: UMass, Charlotte; Marshall UNDER
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There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale.
The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets.
Big market report for Thursday night football in NFL and college football. It’s not just Ravens vs. Buccaneers.
💰💰💰Top expert pick is from Joe Duffy. Super sale! Bet it Trinity 5-day normally $249, on sale today for $197.Yes, yes, yes I added TNF sidethis morning! Steady as the wind blows, we are winning in football going back to preseason. I am 10-3 overallexploiting the best intel in the world! Thursday, four NFL and college football winning bets.I added two NBA Wise Guys.This is shaping up to be one of the great seasons in NBA betting history at OffshoreInsiders.com
Baltimore-Tampa (-2, 46)
🏈Opened -3.5, 44.5
🏈Side: 69% of bets but just 47% of money on Ravens
🏈OU: 77% of gets but just 47% of handle on UNDER
Virginia Tech-NC State (-13.5, 39)
🏈Opened -13.5, 40.5
🏈Side: 68% of bets, 82% money on Virginia Tech
🏈OU: 61% of bets, but mere 37% of cash on UNDER
ULL (-2.5, 43)-Southern Miss
🏈Opened -2.5, 42.5
🏈Side: 55% of tickets, 72% of money on Southern Miss
🏈OU: 70% bets, 87% of money on UNDER
Utah (-7, 56.5)-Washington State
🏈Opened -7.5, 56.5
🏈Side: 55% of bets, 80% cash on Washington State
🏈OU: 55% of tickets, yet just 25% of money on OVER
Sports gambler Joe Duffy has two free college football winners. What a weekend is in store! Saturday, six Wise Guys among nine college football winners. Yeah, our famed bubble burst angle finally lost last week. Talk about revenge, our top version applies three times. This is absurdly rare for it to pop up three times in the same day. You are in for a doozie! Get the picks now
GEORGIA -22.5 Florida
Big conference favorites with momentum of recent blowout wins against inferior teams is 53-16. One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found them covering at a rate of 60 percent.
ILLINOIS -7.5 Nebraska
Away favorites off great defenses efforts versus an opponent off a terrible one are 83-33.
For the second time in three day, I go 5-0! This is the advanced analytics you get every damn day from Joe Duffy at OffshoreInsiders.com For those on the outside looking in…why?
Wise Guy plays are your maximum play. Majors are .75 of Wise Guy plays. Game of the Year and Game of the Month plays still involve the same straight betting as above. While we believe all gamblers need only bet our plays we realize some pick and choose selections. Said distinction is for such ala carte players. All units won quoted on systems are based on one unit per bet.
NBA
Wise Guy
Houston-Utah UNDER 232.5
Math total based on home/road splits of the respective teams goes under a whacked 320-168-18.
Denver-LA Lakers UNDER 229
ESPN Total of the Month
Math total based on home/road splits of the respective teams goes under a whacked 320-168-18. When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records. One could combine them for an overall record. The turbo under version goes under at a rate of 954-634-69. Combine the two and it goes under a jaw-dropping 106-46.
MIAMI -2 Portland
Interconference Game of the Month
Portland is 4-0 ATS covering by 13.3 points per game. Miami is 0-4 failing by -8.1. Massive regression to the mean angle based on spread records and margin of cover says to go with much worse team to the tune of 60-15-2. Going with much more disappointing offense is 441-332. This is based on based on delta points scored. Delta points scored is how many points they scored relative to the oddsmakers posted team total or implied total based on the odds and spread.
Major
Indiana-Chicago UNDER 233.5
Typo, we originally entered the wrong total at 227.5
When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records. One could combine them for an overall record. The turbo under version goes under at a rate of 954-634-69.
Cleveland-Orlando UNDER 214.5
Math total based on home/road splits of the respective teams goes under a whacked 320-168-18.
The 76ers and Nets are off to somewhat predictable inauspicious starts to the 2022-23 NBA regular season.
Both teams are loaded with talent, but piecing the puzzle of success together falls on the shoulders of the head coach. And when the pieces won’t fit, the team finds a new puzzle master.
Philadelphia and Brooklyn undoubtedly have short leashes around the necks of Doc Rivers and Steve Nash. The SportsBetting odds reflect that notion as those two have the shortest odds to be the first head coach fired.
Additionally, there is a trio of Russell Westbrook trade-related props available. The former MVP is a heavy favorite to be dealt this season, and the Pacers top the list of potential destinations.
Russell Westbrook Next Team
Indiana Pacers 3-2
Charlotte Hornets 2-1
San Antonio Spurs 3-1
Utah Jazz 6-1
New Orleans Pelicans 8-1
Phoenix Suns 10-1
Brooklyn Nets 12-1
Will Russell Westbrook be traded during the season?
This 5-0 sweep is hardly rare and the incredible accuracy of advanced analytics continues to lap the industry. If you don’t have thousands of manhours of work done by a magical computer behind every pick, I have a hunch I know while you keep losing.
This is what you got from Joe Duffy’s Picks at OffshoreInsiders.com last night!
Wise Guy plays are your maximum play. Majors are .75 of Wise Guy plays. Game of the Year and Game of the Month plays still involve the same straight betting as above. While we believe all gamblers need only bet our plays we realize some pick and choose selections. Said distinction is for such ala carte players. All units won quoted on systems are based on one unit per bet.
NFL
Wise Guy
CHICAGO +8.5 New England
Bad road teams off a loss that was not a blowout are 261-169. Road teams winless on road, but good at home are incredibly undervalued to the tune of 195-134.
NBA
Wise Guy
HOUSTON -1 Utah
Western Conference Game of the Month
Utah is 3-0 straight up, while Houston is 0-3 and they are also a much better team ATS. This sets up an incredible regression to the mean that is 59-15-2. Also the oddsmakers are sending a message that it is an undervalued versus overvalued team with the game right around pick despite the records.
New York-Orlando UNDER 219.5
When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records. One could combine them for an overall record. The turbo under version goes under at a rate of 951-631-69.
One similar to above, but based on home/road splits goes under 316-168-18. Angle that combined math and splits goes under a whacky 105-46-6.
Boston-Chicago UNDER 225
When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records. One could combine them for an overall record. The turbo under version goes under at a rate of 951-631-69.
One similar to above, but based on home/road splits goes under 316-168-18. Angle that combined math and splits goes under a whacky 105-46-6.
Major
San Antonio-Minnesota UNDER 233
Math total based on home/road splits goes under 316-168-18.
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