The Kansas City Chiefs take on the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday Night Football in week 16. Kansas City is a 2.5-point road favorite almost exclusively across the board including at MYBookie. There are some shops where -2 can be bet. The total is also 53.5 at most Vegas and offshore outlets including Bovada.

Fifty-seven percent of bets and 70 percent of money bet is on the Chiefs. The public is notorious for betting favorites, especially road favorites, so the fact only a slight majority of bets are on the chalk is a mild surprise reports Cy McCormick of MasterLockLine of OffshoreInsiders.com. The opening line was KC -2 and 54.

Kansas City is 8-5-1 against the spread with a margin of cover (called sweat barometer by some) of 4.1, which is fifth best in the NFL. Keep in mind, after starting as a cover machine, the Chiefs are 0-4-1 their last five, but still going over four straight. However, Seattle is even more impressive at 8-4-2 with a cover margin of 5.3, second in the league to the Saints 6.8. 

Kansas City remains the biggest over team in the league, exceeding the total at a 9-4-1 rate by a stunning 9.5 points per game. Seattle is an even 7-7 over-under, going over by an average of 1.1. However, they have exceeded the total 4-of-5.

Kansas leads the NFL in yards per play on offense, getting a stunning 6.8. The also get a jaw-dropping 8.5 yards per pass attempt teams usually allowing just 6.8.

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Kansas City is very vulnerable on defense allowing 5.1 yards per rush to teams that get an average of 4.5 and 6.2 yards per play to 5.9. Advanced analytics suggest Seattle is not as good on defense as their reputation allowing teams to exceed their average yards per rush by .3, yards per pass attempt by .3, and yards per play also by .3.

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Against the spread trends: Kansas City is 16-3 on the road outside division versus an opponent with a worse record. However, Seattle is 15-1 in non-divisional games against an opponent with more wins the previous season when following a game as a favorite. The ‘Hawks are 23-10 in December.

Over-under trends: Kansas City has gone over 14-4 on the road.

Joe Duffy’s advanced analytics tells us the better defense as a home underdog under specific circumstances that apply tonight are 149-122 against the spread, though admittedly much better when the team we are fading is off a win, which is not the case tonight. 

Advanced weather says there is an 85 percent chance of precipitation. Kansas City starting OG Cameron Erving is expected to return after missing last week’s loss but starting OT Mitchell Schwartz is questionable. RB Spencer Ware is questionable to probable. He has 246 yards rushing on 51 attempts. WR Sammy Watkins, who has 40 catches for 519 yards and 3 TDs is questionable to doubtful.

Seattle WR Doug Baldwin is also questionable. He has 41 receptions for 465 yards and 4 TDs. RB Rashaad Penny is in danger of missing his second straight game. Penny has 413 yards rushing on 81 carries.

Complete Week 16 NFL odds from Bet Now among the elite and approved sportsbooks now offering a 100 percent sign-up bonus, with easy deposits and easy cash out. Visit JoeDuffy.Net for free picks on added rotation games. These are the same metrics that make Duffy the Industry Standard for regular rotation games at OffshoreInsiders.com.