Go with big away favorites versus opponent off a cover in a game that is expected to be high scoring is 237-153-4. BetQL has their projected line as -28 as one of their stronger bets. SportsLine gives us a slight edge with Coastal winning by 22. BettingPros has us with a slight edge.
Not a big contrarian bet, but our contrarian index does have squares betting on Temple. Public dogs generally die.
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Envision if as an opposing coach you had the authority to literally use Michael Jordan’s talent against him. Or Wayne Gretzky’s. I am speaking of in their prime. It’s not a trick question. That describes what advanced analytics is and why all the supreme handicappers harness this edge.
If I could summarize what many angles in next gen handicapping boast in one word, it would be “counterintuitive.” Longstanding clients are already in the know. If one couldn’t even name one player or was untaught of the rules of a sport, she could still dominate betting by going contrary to normal bettor expectations. As an example, she could simply eyeball SU records, compare it to the pointspread and observing the line makes no sense, based on said, criterion, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them.
Case in point. Team A has a stronger winning percentage than Team B. Yet Team A is a home underdog. Squares will go giddy trusting the home underdogs are a “lock.” Sharps make the oddsmaker’s forte their own. We pros know that road favorites despite inferior records are 220-183-5 in the NBA. Because home court is worth 3-4 points, a team with the same record “should” be favorite at home.
As the sharp knows, that is fake news. Road favorites with an identical winning percentage as their opponent are 91-78-2. That’s a combined 311-261-7 using the oddmaker’s knowledge against them.
There are skilled handicappers out there and I have no problem admitting that many of them probe personnel matchups much better than I do. Their challenge from a handicapping standpoint is that oddsmakers know the talent discrepancies as well as anyone. The linesmakers are the Michael Jordans of handicapping, so to speak.
Rather than just scouting the teams, we know and exploit the strengths of the linesmaker and make their metier our own.
There are countless examples beyond the most basic one above. In short, if the point spread in comparison to the straight up records “just doesn’t make sense,” there is a very good chance it makes dollars instead.
The author, Joe Duffy, is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com the place to go for best sports picks and vetted sportsbooks. He is the top expert on next generation handicapping.
The NY Mets are at the Atlanta Braves on ESPN. Jacob deGrom takes the bump for New York, with Mike Soroka starting for the home team.
New York is 3-7 this season for -5.5 units, while Atlanta is 7-3, including 5-0 at home. Despite all this, the Mets are -125 on the road with a total of 8 at Bovada. The public likes the home underdog with 59 percent of bets on Atlanta and 81 percent of the money. A whopping 81 percent of tickets are on the under, yet 77 percent of cash on the over, indicating very sharp money on a high-scoring game.
When a team is laying at least 115 on road, despite a winning percentage deficit of at least .300, going with the chalk is 82-36 for +34 units and 20.5 ROI. When a team is undefeated at home with at least five home wins, yet home underdogs, the road team is a perfect 5-0 all-time, with three of the wins by at least three runs. Both of these supersystems favor the Mets.
NY has an OBP of .343 last 10 games, compared to .316 for Atlanta. New York has gone under 6-0 with deGrom after scoring two or fewer runs previous game. Atlanta has won seven straight games on grass. New York has gone under 8-1 as road chalk. The Braves are 7-1 at home in series.
The teams and pitchers met on Opening Day, with NY winning 1-0. Hence deGrom enters with a 1.64 ER, Soroka 1.59. deGrom is 7-7 with a 1.90 ERA in 22 career starts to the Bravos, with Soroka 4-0 with a 2.27 ERA in six starts to the Metropolitans.
Underachieving slugger Yoenis Cespedes has left the Mets and is not expected to return.
Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. He has the AL Runline Game of the Month as the first named play since early March. Named plays have a 7.2 percent ROI all-time on JDP. Two NBA and five MLB. The first winner is 6:30 ET. Get the picks now
The debut of Wednesday night football for 2019 sees Appalachian State at Louisiana Lafayette. UL Lafayette is -1.5, with a total of 68.5 at Bet Now. It opened at -1 and 69.5. The public likes the tiny road underdogs with 54 percent of bets and 69 percent of the money on Appalachian State. Fifty-three percent of wagers and 58 percent of cash is on the under.
App State is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, going over 3-1. Appalachian State is the top over team in the nation in terms of margin, exceeding the total by an average of 20.6 points per game, a full five points more than the No. 2 team Charlotte. App is averaging a stunning 47 points per game. However, teams averaging at least 47 points per game or more in game five or higher have gone under 194-157-6. Such organizations are only 239-281-12 ATS, including 98-136-3 road for just 41.9 percent.
UL Lafayette is 4-1 SU and a perfect 5-0 in the back pocket, going over 4-1. ULL is third in the country in margin of cover with a 14.6 sweat barometer.
Appalachian State is sensational on offense getting 5.8 yards per rush teams regularly allowing 5.1, 8.4 yards per pass to units that permit an average of 7.1, and yards per play is 6.8 to 6.0. ULL’s best numbers are on offense with rushing yards per attempt being 7.4 relative to 5.9 for the cumulative average of their foes. Though below average passing, overall, they get 7.6 yards per play to squads generally permitting 7.0. They average a stunning 9.4 yards per play at home on 9.6 yards per rush and 9.1 passing yards per attempt.
Against the spread trends: Appalachian State 16-5 overall, but 1-5 in October. ULL is 13-3 overall but just 2-5 off a bye.
Over-under trends: The Rajin’ Cajuns have gone over 28-10-1 after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous contest.
Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. The most excellent college football handicapper builds on a 7-2 college football run with another winner, the side on Appalachian State-Louisiana Lafayette. Thursday through Saturday, I have 15 college football winners. This portfolio includes Friday Night Game of the Year and Big 10 Total of the Year. Get the picks now
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