The Fins are far and away the worst spread team in the NFL at 0-4 and -15.6 margin of cover. Regression towards the mean angle that says go with a horrible ATS team is 292-196-7. Speaking of regression, in the name of full disclosure its historic success is greater than in recent years. Underdogs looking for at least their third straight win in the series are 19-4. Teams that have allowed substantially more points than expected over the last two games, based on delta points allowed are 40-10-2. Fading favorites that are almost always in an underdog role is 167-103-13. The Fins have looked poor, but this week they are the NFL winning bet.
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As we dive into the latest college football betting landscape, it’s essential to understand where the public money is going, which teams are seeing sharp action, and how line moves are reflecting market sentiment. This week’s college football betting activity is a fascinating mix of heavy public support, sharp bettor interest, and significant line movement. Let’s take a closer look at the trends that we bet at MYBookie is one of the best sportsbooks in the world! Check out the review of MyBookie:
Public Betting Trends: % of Bets
📊 Ohio State, Army, Iowa The Buckeyes of Ohio State are once again a public favorite, with a large percentage of bettors throwing their support behind the perennial powerhouse. Army and Iowa round out the teams receiving the majority of public backing. This trend indicates strong confidence in these teams’ ability to cover the spread, even as oddsmakers adjust lines to account for this wave of betting activity.
Where the Big Money is: % of Money
💵 Duke, UTSA, Toledo, Ohio State While Ohio State dominates in terms of the number of bets, larger amounts of money are also coming in on the Blue Devils of Duke, UTSA, and Toledo. When big money is flowing in a particular direction, it often suggests that more experienced or high-stakes bettors are confident in their picks. Keep an eye on these teams as they could be indicators of where the sharps are leaning.
Sharp Action
🔪 Troy, Boise State The sharp bettors—those considered to have inside information or advanced analytical skills—are targeting Troy and Boise State this week. When sharp action piles up on a team, it often means there’s hidden value in the lines that the general public hasn’t spotted yet. This sharp action could lead to further line movement as sportsbooks adjust to balance their risk.
Line Movements
📈 Line moves are an essential tool in any bettor’s arsenal, as they reflect how sportsbooks are reacting to incoming bets. This week, we’ve seen significant movement in several games:
Clemson opened at -14.5 and has been bet up to -18.5, indicating strong confidence in the Tigers to cover a big spread.
FAU opened at -2 but is now sitting at +1.5, a 3.5-point swing. This kind of movement suggests heavy action on their opponent.
SMSU has seen its line move from -13 to -16.5, reflecting increased belief in a dominant performance.
Memphis saw their line shrink from -12.5 to -9.5, which may indicate concerns about their ability to cover a double-digit spread.
North Texas opened at -10 but has moved to -7, a key move around a critical number in football betting.
Baylor flipped from a 1-point underdog to a 2-point favorite, a massive swing suggesting strong public and sharp confidence in the Bears.
Oregon State opened as a 6-point favorite but now sits at -3, reflecting significant action on their opponent.
What These Trends Mean for Bettors
Understanding the dynamics between public betting, sharp action, and line movement can give you a strategic edge. Public money can inflate lines, providing value on the opposite side. Sharp action often indicates hidden value, while line movements can reveal where sportsbooks are trying to balance their books.
As the week progresses, keeping an eye on line shifts and where the big money is going will help you make more informed bets. Whether you’re riding with the public on Ohio State or following sharp action on Boise State, understanding these trends can be the difference between cashing a ticket and coming up short.
Conclusion This week’s college football betting slate offers plenty of opportunities for bettors to capitalize on public trends, sharp action, and evolving lines. Stay updated, and use these insights to make smarter wagers as the season unfolds. Keep in mind that the most successful bettors are those who combine knowledge of these factors with discipline and strategy.
Happy betting, and good luck!
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By using data from the betting market, including public money, sharp action, and line movements, you can better position yourself to make informed decisions when wagering on college football. Stay sharp, and watch for late line shifts as kickoff approaches!
The Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles are set to clash in what promises to be a thrilling NFL matchup. With Philadelphia currently favored by 2.5 points and the total set at 49 according to MYBookie, this game has already seen interesting movements in betting action. If you’re trying to find an edge in betting this game, examining the betting splits can offer valuable insights into where the sharp money is landing.
Opening Line Movement
The game opened with Philadelphia as a 2.5-point favorite, and the total sitting at 49. These numbers have remained steady, but it’s important to look beyond the static odds and examine the betting activity for more context. MYBookie is one of the best sportsbooks in the world! Check out the review of MyBookie
Betting Splits: Packers Popular, But Not with Big Money
As of now, 67% of all bets are on the Green Bay Packers, indicating that the public favors Aaron Rodgers and company to cover the spread. However, just 32% of the money is backing the Packers, signaling a potential disconnect between public opinion and sharper betting activity.
When we see a high percentage of bets on one side but a lower percentage of money backing the same team, it’s often a sign that larger, more informed bets are coming in on the other side – in this case, the Eagles. Philadelphia, as the home favorite, may be the play of sharper bettors looking to capitalize on public overconfidence in Green Bay.
Over/Under: Public Loves the Over, Sharps Less Certain
On the total, 77% of tickets are on the OVER, yet just 55% of the money is following suit. This is another clear indicator that while casual bettors expect a high-scoring affair, larger wagers are more cautiously optimistic. The smaller percentage of money on the OVER suggests sharper bettors may anticipate a defensive battle or believe that the total line of 49 is a bit too high.
What the Experts Are Saying
💰💰💰 Top expert pick: Betting expert Joe Duffy is among the sharpest minds in NFL wagering, and he’s got a strong opinion on the side for this game. Duffy’s reputation for finding value where others don’t is unmatched, and he’s got his eyes not only on this NFL matchup but also on key college football plays this weekend.
For those looking to bet with confidence, Joe Duffy’s picks can be found at OffshoreInsiders.com, where his track record speaks for itself. From reading between the lines on betting splits to leveraging insider information, Duffy provides a comprehensive approach to maximizing your sports betting outcomes.
Final Thoughts
Betting splits give us insight into the minds of both public and professional bettors. In the Packers vs. Eagles matchup, the public is favoring Green Bay and the OVER, but the money percentages suggest the sharp play may be on Philadelphia and potentially the UNDER. Whether you’re tailing the sharps or following the public, make sure you have the right information to guide your betting decisions.
Taking Michigan State +9.5 is a solid bet for several reasons.
First, the large point spread combined with a low total in a conference game is a historically profitable angle, with a record of 437-321-23. This trend indicates that when the oddsmakers expect a low-scoring game, getting nearly double-digit points is a significant edge for the underdog with our free football pick.
Recent Performance: Michigan State’s recent win against Florida Atlantic (16-10) shows they can compete in low-scoring games. Their defense held strong, which is crucial when betting on an underdog with a large spread.
Maryland’s Inconsistency: While Maryland had an impressive win against UConn, their performance can be inconsistent. Betting on Michigan State takes advantage of potential variability in Maryland’s play.
Historical Trends: Historically, Michigan State has performed well against the spread in similar situations. This trend, combined with the large point spread, increases the likelihood of them covering.
Motivation and Rivalry: Conference games often bring out the best in teams due to the rivalry and stakes involved. Michigan State will be highly motivated to perform well against a conference opponent.
Betting Market: The betting market often overvalues favorites, especially in conference games. This can create value on the underdog side, making Michigan State +9.5 an attractive bet.
🔥 Joe Duffy is off to a 16-10 start in college football bets and wrapped up the NFL preseason at 12-7! 🏈💪
🎯 Full-Time Handicapper & Pro Bettor Since 1988 📅 🚨 Thursday & Friday NFL Sides Up! Plus Friday night college football side! 🎉 Saturday is staggering with FIVE Wise Guy bets and a stunning 14 majors on the college gridiron! 🏈🔥
🔥 The Top NFL Capper in History, by Far! 🔥⭐️ Sunday: NFL Best Bet of the Week among five Wise Guys and four Majors🔒 Wise Guys from Joe Duffy = The strongest bet in gambling! 🏅 Best Bet of the Week backed by a 44-1 system. 📊 The most statistically significant betting angle in gambling history has a loaded portfolio at OffshoreInsiders.com
Week 2 of the 2024 college football season brings an array of intriguing matchups that are sure to capture the attention of bettors. As always, lines for games involving FBS teams versus FCS opponents will typically emerge later in the week, but several key games already have odds set. Here’s a look at the lines and some early thoughts on what to watch for from OffshoreInsiders.com
Friday, September 6, 2024
BYU at SMU (-10½): SMU is favored by double digits at home against BYU. This matchup could hinge on how well SMU’s explosive offense performs against a traditionally tough BYU defense.
Duke at Northwestern (-3): A narrow line here reflects the expected competitiveness of this game. Northwestern, playing at home, gets the slight edge, but Duke’s rising program under Coach Mike Elko could present a serious challenge.
Saturday, September 7, 2024
Georgia Tech (-3) at Syracuse: Georgia Tech is a slight road favorite against Syracuse. The Yellow Jackets’ improvement under Coach Brent Key is evident, but the Carrier Dome is always a tough venue for visiting teams. MYBookie is one of the best sportsbooks in the world! Check out the review of MyBookie
Kansas State (-10) at Tulane: Kansas State is favored by ten points in what could be a tricky road game against Tulane. The Green Wave have been known to pull off upsets, so this line might see movement as the week progresses.
Bowling Green at Penn State (-33): Penn State is heavily favored by 33 points against Bowling Green. This should be a straightforward win for the Nittany Lions, but the spread could test the resolve of bettors.
Troy at Memphis (-17): Memphis is expected to cover a 17-point spread at home against Troy. Memphis’ high-powered offense should give them the edge, but Troy’s defense could keep it closer than expected.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (-1): A virtual toss-up with Cincinnati favored by just a single point. This could be one of the closest and most exciting games of the week.
Akron at Rutgers (-23): Rutgers is favored to win comfortably at home against Akron. The Scarlet Knights will look to dominate early and cover the sizable spread.
Army at Florida Atlantic (-2½): Florida Atlantic is a slight favorite at home against Army, but the Black Knights’ triple-option offense could present challenges for FAU’s defense.
Texas (-7) at Michigan: This line opened with Texas as a 3-point favorite, but it’s already moved to -7. The Longhorns will be looking to prove themselves against a Michigan team that is always tough at home.
Arkansas at Oklahoma State (-7½): Oklahoma State is favored at home by just over a touchdown. Arkansas, however, has the potential to make this a close contest.
California at Auburn (-14): Auburn is a two-touchdown favorite against Cal. The Tigers’ SEC pedigree should see them through, but Cal’s defense could keep the margin in check.
Jacksonville State at Louisville (-28): Louisville is expected to win big against Jacksonville State. A 28-point spread reflects the disparity between these programs.
Temple at Navy (-13): Navy is a 13-point favorite at home against Temple. The Midshipmen’s option offense is tough to prepare for, which could make it difficult for Temple to stay within the spread.
Baylor at Utah (-15): Utah is favored by 15 points against Baylor in a matchup that could see defensive battles on both sides. Utah’s home-field advantage is significant in this one.
South Carolina at Kentucky (-9½): Kentucky is favored at home by just under ten points. South Carolina’s offense will need to step up to stay in this game.
Charlotte at North Carolina (-21½): North Carolina is heavily favored against Charlotte, with a spread of 21½ points. The Tar Heels’ potent offense should be too much for Charlotte to handle.
Northern Illinois at Notre Dame (-29½): Notre Dame is a near 30-point favorite at home against Northern Illinois. The Fighting Irish will aim to dominate early and put this game out of reach.
Eastern Michigan at Washington (-25): Washington is expected to cruise past Eastern Michigan with a 25-point spread in their favor.
Massachusetts at Toledo (-19½): Toledo is favored by nearly three touchdowns against UMass. The Rockets should be able to cover, but UMass could fight to keep it closer.
Iowa State at Iowa (-3): The battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy is expected to be close, with Iowa favored by a field goal. This rivalry game often comes down to the wire.
Michigan State at Maryland (-10): Maryland is favored by ten points at home against Michigan State. The Terrapins’ offense will be key to covering this spread.
UTSA at Texas State (-2½): Texas State is a slight favorite at home against UTSA. This line reflects the anticipated tight nature of the contest.
Middle Tennessee State at Mississippi (-41½): Ole Miss is a massive 41½-point favorite against Middle Tennessee State. The Rebels should win comfortably, but covering this large spread could be a challenge.
Marshall at Virginia Tech (-17): Virginia Tech is favored by 17 points at home against Marshall. The Hokies’ defense will need to shine to cover this spread.
Central Michigan (-4) at Florida International: Central Michigan is a 4-point favorite on the road. This line suggests a closer game than one might expect.
East Carolina (-1) at Old Dominion: East Carolina is barely favored by a single point in what is expected to be a closely contested game.
South Alabama (-1½) at Ohio: South Alabama is slightly favored on the road, indicating a potential nail-biter in Ohio.
Sam Houston St at Central Florida (-23½): UCF is favored by more than three touchdowns against Sam Houston State. The Knights should cover, but Sam Houston State’s defense could keep it interesting.
South Florida at Alabama (-31): Alabama is heavily favored by 31 points at home against South Florida. The Crimson Tide should have no trouble, but the spread is sizable.
Buffalo at Missouri (-34): Missouri is a 34-point favorite at home against Buffalo. This line reflects the Tigers’ dominance.
Virginia at Wake Forest (-2): Wake Forest is a slight favorite in this ACC matchup, suggesting a potentially close contest.
Kansas (-5½) at Illinois: Kansas is favored by less than a touchdown on the road. The Jayhawks will need to perform well to cover this spread.
Georgia Southern (-2½) at Nevada: Georgia Southern is a narrow favorite on the road against Nevada. This could be a tough game to call.
San Jose State at Air Force (-6½): Air Force is favored by just under a touchdown at home against San Jose State. The Falcons’ unique offense will be key.
UAB (-12) at UL Monroe: UAB is a 12-point favorite on the road, which indicates confidence in their ability to handle UL Monroe.
Tulsa at Arkansas State (-7): Arkansas State is favored by a touchdown at home. This game could be closer than the line suggests.
UL Lafayette (-14½) at Kennesaw State: UL Lafayette is favored by two touchdowns plus a half-point against Kennesaw State. This line shows confidence in the Ragin’ Cajuns.
Western Michigan at Ohio State (-39): Ohio State is a 39-point favorite against Western Michigan. The Buckeyes should dominate, but covering nearly 40 points is a tall order.
Colorado at Nebraska (-7½): Nebraska is favored by more than a touchdown at home against Colorado. This rivalry game could be closer than the spread indicates.
Tennessee (-7½) at NC State: Tennessee is a slight favorite on a neutral field in Charlotte. This game has potential to be one of the weekend’s best matchups.
Houston at Oklahoma (-29½): Oklahoma is nearly a 30-point favorite at home against Houston. The Sooners should win big, but the spread is large.
Appalachian State at Clemson (-17): Clemson is favored by 17 points at home against Appalachian State. The Tigers should cover, but App State is known for putting up a fight.
Boise State at Oregon (-18): Oregon is an 18-point favorite at home against Boise State. The Ducks’ offense will be key to covering this spread.
Texas Tech at Washington State (-1): Washington State is favored by just a single point in what is expected to be a close game against Texas Tech.
Liberty (-22) at New Mexico State: Liberty is favored by 22 points on the road. The Flames should cover, but New Mexico State’s home field could factor in.
Oregon State (-4) at San Diego State: Oregon State is favored by 4 points on the road. The Beavers will need to play well to cover this spread.
Mississippi State at Arizona State (-4): Arizona State is favored by 4 points at home against Mississippi State. This could be one of the tighter games of the weekend.
Utah State at USC (-28): USC is favored by 28 points at home against Utah State. The Trojans should cover, but a blowout isn’t guaranteed.
Final Thoughts
As the week progresses, expect these lines to move as bettors weigh in with their wagers. Factors like injuries, weather conditions, and public perception will play a significant role in how these lines shift.
🔥 Joe Duffy is off to a 16-10 start in college football bets and wrapped up the NFL preseason at 12-7! 🏈💪
🎯 Full-Time Handicapper & Pro Bettor Since 1988 📅 🚨 Thursday & Friday NFL Sides Up! Plus Friday night college football side! 🎉 Saturday is staggering with FIVE Wise Guy bets and a stunning 14 majors on the college gridiron! 🏈🔥
🔥 The Top NFL Capper in History, by Far! 🔥⭐️ Sunday: NFL Best Bet of the Week among five Wise Guys and four Majors🔒 Wise Guys from Joe Duffy = The strongest bet in gambling! 🏅 Best Bet of the Week backed by a 44-1 system. 📊 The most statistically significant betting angle in gambling history! It is all at OffshoreInsiders.com
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