The Fins are far and away the worst spread team in the NFL at 0-4 and -15.6 margin of cover. Regression towards the mean angle that says go with a horrible ATS team is 292-196-7. Speaking of regression, in the name of full disclosure its historic success is greater than in recent years. Underdogs looking for at least their third straight win in the series are 19-4. Teams that have allowed substantially more points than expected over the last two games, based on delta points allowed are 40-10-2. Fading favorites that are almost always in an underdog role is 167-103-13. The Fins have looked poor, but this week they are the NFL winning bet.
🏈 3 Thursday night sides: NFL and 2 CFB. 📊 Friday CFB total 🔥 Saturday: CFB Total of the Year among 4 Wise Guys, plus 8 Majors. 🏈Named play among 8 Sunday NFL, 3 are Wise Guy bets! We added early morning London winner. All this at OffshoreInsiders.com
Betting expert Mike Godsey of OffshoreInsiders.com breaks down week 1 betting nuggets. Here is the college football betting tipsheet for opening week odds.
Summary: Minnesota is excited about Max Brosmer, the runner-up for the Walter Payton Award, transferring in. North Carolina is replacing key players, including QB Drake Maye. Expect a strong showing from NC’s offense led by All-ACC RB Omarion Hampton, with Max Johnson adjusting as QB.
Coastal Carolina vs. Jacksonville State
Summary: Both teams are likely to focus on the running game with new key players on offense, leading to a slower pace. Despite subpar defenses, their playstyles should keep the game under the total.
Saturday College Football Bets:
Miami (FL) vs. Florida
Summary: Miami’s offense, bolstered by key transfers, looks set to challenge Florida’s defense. Florida might exploit Miami’s inexperienced secondary, leading to a higher-scoring game.
Clemson vs. Georgia
Summary: Georgia’s potent offense and Clemson’s returning talent suggest this game could exceed the projected total, especially with Clemson looking to bounce back after last season’s opener.
Summary: UCLA is replacing a lot on defense but should still handle Hawai’i. Offensive issues for UCLA and a focus on their Week 2 opponent could keep this game under the total.
Virginia Tech vs. Vanderbilt
Summary: Virginia Tech returns most of their offense, which ended the 2023 season strong. Vanderbilt’s addition of QB Diego Pavia should help them improve offensively, making the Over a strong play.
New Mexico vs. Arizona
Summary: Arizona is a heavy favorite and has already seen the line move up after New Mexico’s first game under new HC Bronco Mendenhall. Expect further line movement.
Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M
Summary: Despite strong defenses, both teams have powerful offenses. Notre Dame’s Riley Leonard and TAMU’s Conner Wiegman should keep this game competitive and potentially over the total.
UTEP vs. Nebraska
Summary: Nebraska, under new HC Matt Rhule and starting 5-star Freshman QB Dylan Raiola, should dominate defensively against a rebuilt UTEP team. Expect a low-scoring game.
Summary: Kentucky’s offense, led by returning players and facing a weak Southern Miss defense, should score heavily. Southern Miss might struggle to score, but Kentucky alone could push this game over the total.
Sunday College Football Betting Picks
LSU vs. USC
Summary: Both teams have defensive changes, but their offenses, led by new starting QBs with strong performances in bowl games, should push this game over the high total.
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We have no compunction whatsoever giving attaboys to our competitors and have done so in previous
articles many times over. Another example is Phil Steele of Northcoast Sports. Their preseason publication is part of our research and a major reason
why GodsTips enters the football season as the most prepared sports service in the world.
They correctly state that a favorite source of ours, Stassen.com declared Phil Steele to have the most accurate publication in comparing preseason predictions to the end-of-season polls.
What is falsely presumed is that the other periodicals draw no distinction between “preseason polls” and “postseason predictions”.
This season is a perfect illustration. Though we rate no not rank teams, our preseason ratings agree with the USA Today preseason poll that has Georgia No. 1. Does this mean as per Stassen’scriterion, we are projecting that they will be No. 1 at the end of the season? Absolutely not. Just wait a Dawg gone minute.
In the dog eat Dawg world of the SEC, the Bulldogs schedule includes back-to-back games against two other serious BCS Championship contenders, Floridaand LSU. The game against the Tigers is in Baton Rouge and of course against the revenge-seeking Gators, it’s in the so-called “neutral” state of Florida.
They also travel cross country for a brutal non-conference test at No. 16 Arizona State, play at dangerous South Carolina (27thranked based on “others receiving votes”) and at cross-divisional Auburn. Even if by some miracle they go undefeated in SEC play, their reward would be giving rival Georgia Tech golden opportunity to play BCS spoiler, then a trip to the SEC Championship game, which would likely be a rematch to the Tigers of LSU or Auburn.
For 2008, if GodsTips converted our ratings to rankings, we would have Georgia our preseason No. 1.In looking at the Dawgs schedule however, Steele’s prediction that they will finish 9th is more likely.
Putting side by side one magazine’s preseason Top 25 to another publication’s projected post-bowl Top 25 is comparing apples to oranges. Or perhaps more accurately, it’s comparing Sugar, Rose, and Fiesta to Oranges.
GodsTips is smart enough to acknowledge the difference, just one of the many reasons why we are the football betting specialists and the anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com
It’s been awhile since we authored a volume in this series.
However more anticipated than a Harry Potter novel, the Tid-Bets return to take a look at various sports handicapping and betting issues.
How Do Handicappers Work Overtime?
CBS announcer Gary Danielson accurately observed how college football overtimes can greatly distort statistics. From a handicapping standpoint, this is certainly true for those who use deceptive rankings or points per game statistics. Luckily sharp bettors do not or they are weighted very lightly.
The main statistics that we use: yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play on offense and defense compared to the cumulative average of their opponents are not debased by overtime play. The same is true for ace football handicapper Joe Duffy who utilizes net yard advantage/disadvantage cumulative statistics.
We’ve explained in previous articles why straight up wins and losses, point margin, and offensive and defensive rankings are the most popular choices of square players planning their own sportsbook death sentence.
“If a team wins by eight points in four overtimes, it looks the same as an eight-point win in regulation,” says Mike Godsey, referring to those who use the above fatal stats.
https://youtu.be/qa6H7tcWGeM
“But if the losing team is stopped on the three-yard line trying to tie the game, it is very much accounted for in our statistics,” brags Godsey.
Godsey adds that while as a fan he despises the fact that teams start 25 yards from pay dirt; it is built-in insurance that the more reliable numbers don’t get too distorted in overtime.
Will the Pitching and Defense Cliché Ever Die?
In 2007, no surprise, seven of the top eight offenses based on a team’s on base percentage made the playoffs. Two of the three teamsthat finished with 70 wins or less, Pittsburgh and Baltimore, ranked in the top five in defense, ahead of six of the eight playoff teams. And six of the top 10 pitching teams missed the playoffs.
This is on the heels of St. Louis winning the World Series with Chris Carpenter and a cast of rejects on their pitching staff. Their closer was a converted rookie starting pitcher. The year before the White Sox had a good starting pitching staff and an abysmal bullpen. In recent years, Arizona won with Johnson and Schilling and the rest of the staff worth killing.
The Toronto Blue Jays this most recent campaign had the best pitching staff in MLB with A.J. Burnett, Roy Halladay, Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum and Jesse Litsch. All they did was finish 13 games out of first place.
This year the Colorado Rockies enter the World Series having won an historic 21-of-22 games. The ace of their staff is Jeff Francis, a very solid pitcher indeed. Problem is, he’d be the No. 3 starter on the Atlanta Braves, a team that the media said failed to make the playoffs because of lack of pitching. But not to worry, rounding out the Rockies pitching staff is Ubadlo Jimenez and Franklin Morales. Combined, they have seven career wins under their belt. Yes, combined they have seven more wins at the Major League level than I do.
Pitching and defense wins in the media, but the teams with the best clutch hitting are the squads that professional gamblers laugh with
all the way to the bank.
ESPN Fantasy Football Simulations a Tool for Proposition Bettors
Over the last several years, online gamblers have been able to bet on the production of individual players in their respective sports. An elite gambler in fantasy football betting is Mike Snow of BettorsAdvice.com.
He says there is no better starting point than the ESPN fantasy football projections. “We of course make adjustments for injuries, but contrasting the player proposition odds to the ESPN simulations has proven to be great foundation in fantasy NFL betting.”
Lower betting limits make it more challenging for sharp players to clean house on the sportsbooks, but Snow says some of the highest return on investments have been in betting NFL player propositions.
Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are the best in the industry! He is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the premier hub of world-class handicappers.
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Here are some sports betting injuries, plus news and notes
for Saturday
Arizona-USC
USC’s preseason Heisman Trophy
candidate, QB Josh Booty is out. Booty was injured in the second quarter of USC’s stunning loss to Stanford. His replacement is Mark
Sanchez a third-year sophomore making his first career start. USC will likely
also be without tailback Stafon Johnson. He is their
leading rusher with 378 yards and a remarkable 8.3 yards per carry.
Washington State-Oregon
It looks like the Cougars will be without the leading
receiver in the conference, wideout Brandon Gibson,
who has a heel injury. He is considered doubtful.
Connecticut-Virginia
Virginia
will likely have to beat undefeated Connecticut
without the second leading rusher in the ACC Cedric Peerman. He is out with an ankle injury.
Which team is 16-2 as road underdogs of 7 or less? Which
team has gone under 26-4 after getting less than 275 yards total last game?
Which squad is 1-9 their last 10 as a favorite? Stevie Vincent of OffshoreInsiders.combelieves
less is more and says just 3 game sides or over/under plays are worth betting
Saturday. Two are Level 5 including the Non-Conference over/under of the
QUARTER CENTURY. All three picks have 100% angles supporting them. Click now to
purchase
LSU-Kentucky
LSU wide receiver and return
playmaker should play, but may not get his normal playing time.He is slowed by a groin injury.
GA Tech-Miami
Yellow Jackets wide receiver is now expected to have the
services of starting wide receiver James Johnson, who has seven catches this
year. Also wide receiver Correy Earls will probably
get his first snaps since suffering a neck injury Sept. 29 versus the Virginia
Cavaliers.
SMU-Southern Miss
This is the first Wise Guy side selection from GodsTips
since last Sunday when the Redskins crushed the Lions as the NFC Game of the
Year. Keep in mind that the Inter-Conference Game of the Year goes Sunday with
Indianapolis-Dallas but first GodsTips has three college football Wise Guy
sides. SMU and Southern Miss is one as is the Big 10
Game of the Year. Get the three-day pass for $45 which also gets you the
Colts-Cowboys huge Wise Guy Sunday. Click now to
purchase
South Carolina-North Carolina
The Gamecocks have won 7-of-9 road games with the only
losses at top ranked LSU and by one-point to Florida.
TCU-Stanford
For those who bet first and second half lines, note that
Stanford has allowed just 68 first half points, but 96 second half.
Auburn-Arkansas
Auburn has
five starters who could miss this game. That includes defensive end Quentin
Groves, starting center Jason Bosley is also unlikely.
Questionable include linebackers Tray Blackman and Merrill Jackson. Defensive
back Aairon Savage is out.
Missouri-Oklahoma
Missouri
will be without running back Tony Temple with a sprained right ankle. He has a
team high 351 yards, three touchdowns on 71 carries. Missouri
is 11th in scoring at 41.8 points per game.
