The Cleveland Browns take on the San Francisco 49ers on MNF. San Francisco is -4.5, with a total of 47 at NFL live lines after opening up at -5 and 47. The market report says 56 percent of bets are on Cleveland, yet 58 percent of the money on San Francisco. Many say this equates to a sharp move on the home team. The public prefers betting overs and 57 percent of tickets, with 75 percent of the money is on the over, making the over a small sharp move.
The road team is a stunning 4-0 SU and ATS in the Browns contest. This sets up a unique situation in which road teams in week five or later, who are undefeated on the road and winless at home, are 10-6 to the number. San Francisco is 3-0 SU, but likewise the road team is 3-0 ATS in their contests.
San Francisco is home off a bye week, while Cleveland played last week. It sets up a half-decent situation in which road dogs of 3.5 not off a bye playing a team off a bye is a solid 130-115-4 ATS. While this angle is just 53.1 percent, it screams to avoid the traditional thinking that a home team off a bye has a significant advantage of a much less rested squad.
Cleveland’s offense has been terrific getting 4.9 yards per rush teams typically allowing just 4.2, 7.6 yards per pass to 7.3 and 6.5 yards per play to 6.1. Their defense is a notch below average using such parameters. The Niners offense has been more sensational getting 32 points per game to teams that usually allow 26.2 on 4.6 yards per rush to 3.9, 8.7 yards per pass to 7.5, and 6.4 yards per play to 5.9.
San Francisco’s defense is solid, especially against the pass. They allow 6.0 yards per pass teams, regularly accumulating 6.7 and 4.9 yards per play to 5.5.
Against the spread trends: Cleveland is 12-28-1 after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game and 0-6 off win of 14 or more. San Francisco is 7-17 at home and 0-6 off a bye week.
Over-under trends: San Francisco over 15-5 off the bye.
Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy, who enters Sunday 8-2 overall and 33-16 with all NFL. MNF total is up from the Grandmaster. Get the picks now.