Here is week five NFL sharp report, which includes the so-called sweat barometer. As usual, the public consensus biggest bets are dominated by road favorites, the road underdog Arizona is in the house. Please note, the line moves are from in the preseason when many sportsbooks had odds posted.
Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: New England, Chicago, Arizona, Minnesota
Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: New England, Arizona, Minnesota
Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Denver, Atlanta
Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Philadelphia opened -6.5 to the Jets but now -14; Pittsburgh -4 to Baltimore now +3.5; New Orleans -6 to Tampa now +5
Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer.
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These have been the best teams to bet on:
| Team | ATS Record | Margin of Cover |
| San Francisco | 2-1-0 | 12.7 |
| New England | 2-2-0 | 11.0 |
| Tennessee | 2-2-0 | 8.4 |
| Kansas City | 3-1-0 | 4.6 |
| Carolina | 2-2-0 | 4.5 |
These have been the best teams to bet against.
| Team | ATS Record | Margin of Cover |
| Miami | 0-4-0 | -18.8 |
| Cincinnati | 2-2-0 | -8.9 |
| Washington | 1-3-0 | -6.9 |
| Atlanta | 1-3-0 | -6.8 |
| Arizona | 2-2-0 | -5.6 |
| Denver | 1-3-0 | -4.6 |
Weather looks good and no major problems to worry about.