Show notes on Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com superb podcast on betting splits. 

Listen to the full podcast here

What are splits?

• How a pitcher or team does in a subcategory, the most popular being home/road dichotomy 
• Most common usage is home/away stats

Sharp versus square usage 

• Prevailing theory if one or both teams substantially better at home than road, go with home team
  • False, such stats rarely hold up
• Fool’s Gold is going with home underdogs if their home winning percentage much better than road teams away winning percentage 
  • Road favorite is almost always sharp bet
  • “Louder” the statement, the stronger it is

Why do anti-splits do so well?

• Very rarely, especially in pro sports, is a team truly Jekyll and Hyde
• Splits regress to the mean
• SU stats overrated anyway, though even points per game margin splits don’t hold up
• Use oddsmakers knowledge against them
  • Counterintuitive odds; follow the “message”

Conclusion

• Don’t outsmart yourself
• Think outside the box
  • Zig while square zag
• If your capper advises you to ride splits, run like hell