🏈Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Arizona, Minnesota
🏈Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Indianapolis -1 to +2.5, Green Bay -1 to +2, Cincinnati -5 to -3
Biggest bets for today is from Grandmaster Joe Duffy. Sunday, I have NFL led by 4 ET Interconference Game of the Year among 3 Wise Guys, plus 6 Majors.Added SNF side! Off consecutive winnings weeks with prop bets. 4 NFL prop bets. OffshoreInsiders.com
🏈 % of bets: Oregon State, Akron, Michigan, Texas Tech; EMU UNDER
🏈% of money: Texas Tech, UNT, Michigan, Notre Dame; Buffalo UNDER, Wash State OVER
🏈Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: UNT, UConn
🏈Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Kansas -3.5 to +2, Miami Oh -12 to -8.5.
BEST SPORTS HANDICAPPER PICKS FOR TODAY
LateInfo will continue massive winning streak: 3:30 ET. Off a sweep last week in college and NFL, as you know LateInfo often has low profile games you have to find on ESPN+. LI is about winning. Our top source Big Red says Alabama vs. Texas A&M strongest bet thus far all at OffshoreInsiders.com
Joe Duffy is yet again cruising this football season. 86-63 this season in football.First wave of winners up for this weekend. Thursday Night NFL Game of the Year, plus total and 2 college footbal sides and a total.Yes 5 football winners Thursday alone! Friday, 2 college football sides.
Crush the line moves as I have 5 college football Wise Guys and a stunning 14 Majorsfor Saturday. Sunday, I have 3Wise Guys NFL led by 4 ET Interconference Game of the Year among 3 Wise Guys, plus 4 Majors at OffshoreInsiders.com
Fade poor first half teams if they are off a high scoring game is 626-443-19. Fade home underdogs with bad defense is 200-130-5. When both apply, it is 151-89-3, including 4-0 this season.
Who are the best teams to bet on and against this season? OffshoreInsiders.com has the answer. Top NFL teams this season based on margin of cover:
Team
ATS Record
ATS margin
Miami
3-0
18.2
Buffalo
2-1
13.7
Cleveland
2-1
11.8
San Francisco
2-1
9.7
Arizona
3-0
9.3
Dallas
2-1
8.7
Green Bay
3-0
9.3
NFL betting
Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer.
Best teams to bet against based on margin of cover:
As we file this report, Joe Duffy’s Picks is 37-18 in football for the season, college and pro, starting with the HOF Game winner. Please see menu for latest update of winners. I have eight NFL sides, totals, plus a prop bet now at OffshoreInsiders.com
Week 3 NFL free pick
NY JETS +9.5 Dallas
Week 2 is definitely about overreaction and teams off massive covers are a stunning 16-0 fade, just 3-13 SU under specific situations that apply in this game. Other full season regression angles apply as well. Of course nobody wants to bet on the stiff QB the Jets have, nor bet against the Cowboys who looked like the best team in the league last week. That’s what gives this team value.
Pro gamblers keep rolling. Joe Duffy’s Picks went 4-0 last night and thanks to pro gambler metrics now 37-18 football, college and NFL going back to preseason. A combination of pro systems, best simulators and models, contrarian intel, and outsourced picks from “organic” betting pros, this is what whales all over the world got last night at OffshoreInsiders.com
NFL
Major
MINNESOTA +7.5 Philadelphia
We have several overreaction angles relative to week 1 results, including one that is 67.5 percent, another is 163-110.
CFB
Major
NAVY +14.5 Memphis
Big conference road dogs in a game the oddsmakers say will be low scoring is 436-321-21.
MLB
Major
MILWAUKEE (HOUSER +102) Miami (Perez)
The model’s simulation average moneyline probability of 62.0% is substantially different from the consensus odds implied probability of 50.98.
Minnesota-White Sox OVER 9.5 (Maeda-Urena)
We have angles that compare total to season to date averages for pitcher, team, and also recent play for each. A combo angle in which all apply goes over at a rate of 56.8 percent with thousands in the sample size and it is up for 2023.
It is week 1 of NFL and the bets are up. Joe Duffy and the pro bettors nailed Detroit Thursday as Duffy improves to 18-9 since preseason. We are up toseven NFL for Sunday led by Wise Guy.2 Sunday NFL player props added at OffshoreInsiders.com
Week 1 NFL Free Pick
HOUSTON +9.5 Baltimore
Week 1 teams that missed playoff previous season versus opponent that made the playoffs is 85-56-2. Squares hate 9.5 but under this system is is 6-0 and at 9 or 9.5 it is 9-1. There is a bizarre fear of 9.5 because of 10 being a key number and people think it’s one of the worst numbers in sports, but covers in all situations at 54.5 percent all-time as opposed to 10 at just 50.5.
This is one of those that could easily become a premium bet as of my few sharps has Houston with nobody on Baltimore.
Joe Duffy, a nice 28-13 start to football season! Saturday, Non-Conference Game of the Year among 5 Wise Guys, 2 Majors. Get the picks now
🏈Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: UConn, Missouri
🏈Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Sam Houston, FAU, Memphis
🏈Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Arizona State, UNLV, SMU
🏈Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Syracuse -21 to -25, UNC -16 to -19.5, Liberty -9.5 to -13
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