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NBA Playoff Odds 2023: Exploit Oddsmakers’ Overreaction on Line Shifts

It’s easy to overreact to early-season losses in the NBA. But it seems that all of the abhorrent reactions to the Los Angeles Lakers start are warranted.

L.A. dropped to 0-3 following yesterday’s home loss to Portland, and afterward LeBron James said the team’s mood was “s—ty.”

Well, the oddsmakers have taken note of that stench and dropped the Lakers significantly on the NBA Finals odds board. 

Just one week ago, SportsBetting assigned the Lakers with 22-1 odds and reported that 9% of the book’s entire championship wagering handle was on L.A., which was the second-highest percentage after Golden State (18%). 

Now, the Lake Show is well down the list with 33-1 odds, and the drop marks the biggest odds movement through the first week of the season. 

It’s worth noting that the Lakers have the exact same title odds as the Cavaliers.

As far as L.A.’s playoff outlook…the numbers aren’t pointing toward a happy place.

Will the Lakers make the NBA Playoffs? (play-in tournament does not count)

Yes +110

No -140

NBA Playoffs odds:

NBA Championship Odds

Boston Celtics                         6-1

Golden State Warriors            6-1

Los Angeles Clippers               7-1

Milwaukee Bucks                    8-1

Brooklyn Nets                         9-1

Phoenix Suns                          12-1

Denver Nuggets                      14-1

Philadelphia 76ers                  16-1

Miami Heat                             20-1

Dallas Mavericks                     22-1

Memphis Grizzlies                  22-1

New Orleans Pelicans             25-1

Minnesota Timberwolves       28-1

Cleveland Cavaliers                 33-1

Los Angeles Lakers                  33-1

Atlanta Hawks                         50-1

Toronto Raptors                     50-1

Chicago Bulls                           66-1

Portland Trail Blazers              80-1

New York Knicks                     100-1

Charlotte Hornets                   200-1

Utah Jazz                                 250-1

Washington Wizards              250-1

Sacramento Kings                   300-1

Detroit Pistons                        500-1

Orlando Magic                        500-1

Oklahoma City Thunder          750-1

San Antonio Spurs                  750-1

Houston Rockets                     1000-1

Indiana Pacers                        1000-1

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College Football Market Report on Line Moves, Industry’s College Football Game of the Year

Market report for Saturday.  We look at line moves, public betting trends, betting splits, contrarian info and more. 

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Collegiate football market report! 

🏈Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: UTEP, Miami Ohio, Houston

🏈Biggest bets based on percentage of money: Hawaii; Texas State UNDER, Air Force UNDER

🏈Largest line moves, opener to current: Kent -19.5 to -15.5, Fresno -13 to -9.5. 

🏈Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets: Eastern Michigan, Vanderbilt; East Carolina UNDER, LA Tech UNDER, Texas Tech UNDER

There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale. 

The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets. 

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NBA Betting Market Report For Friday

Friday market report for October 21 sports betting picks!

🏀Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: New Orleans, Indiana

🏀Biggest bets based on percentage of money: Detroit; Washington UNDER

🏀Largest line moves, opener to current: Indiana -3 to -7, Memphis -5 to -7

🏀Biggest splits. Teams listed have the highest percent of cash compared to bets: Washington, Detroit; Washington UNDER 

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What a great football season. College Football Game of the Year goes Saturday among nine college football winners.  Then Sunday Wise Guy among seven NFL! 

Dramatic Shift in Super Bowl Odds With CMC Trade

The San Francisco 49ers shot up the Super Bowl odds board Thursday night after news broke that they had acquired Christian McCaffrey in a trade with Carolina. 

SportsBetting moved the Niners’ title odds from 16-1 to 14-1 initially, but quickly dropped them to 12-1, and now the odds are even lower.

“We were already pretty exposed in terms of futures liability with the Niners,” Robert Cooper, Head Trader at SportsBetting.ag said. “It seems like McCaffrey will be a good fit for that Shanahan system, and the bets are coming in heavy across the board despite San Fran looking like a very average team so far this season.”

The 49ers are 3-3, and could easily find themselves at 3-4 after this Sunday where they are 1.5-point underdogs at home against Kansas City.

The Niners are favored to take the NFC West and they jumped over Tampa Bay for the second spot in the NFC odds.

Super Bowl LVII Odds

Buffalo Bills                             3-1

Philadelphia Eagles                 5-1

Kansas City Chiefs                   8-1

San Francisco 49ers                11-1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers           14-1

Los Angeles Chargers              18-1

Baltimore Ravens                    20-1

Minnesota Vikings                  20-1

Dallas Cowboys                       22-1

Green Bay Packers                  22-1

Cincinnati Bengals                  25-1

Los Angeles Rams                   25-1

Miami Dolphins                      40-1

Indianapolis Colts                   55-1

Las Vegas Raiders                   60-1

New England Patriots             60-1

New York Giants                     66-1

New York Jets                         66-1

Tennessee Titans                    70-1

Arizona Cardinals                    80-1

Jacksonville Jaguars                80-1

Cleveland Browns                   100-1

Denver Broncos                      100-1

Atlanta Falcons                       125-1

New Orleans Saints                 150-1

Detroit Lions                           250-1

Pittsburgh Steelers                 250-1

Seattle Seahawks                    250-1

Washington Commanders      300-1

Carolina Panthers                   500-1

Chicago Bears                         500-1

Houston Texans                      500-1

Joe Duffy is widely accepted as the top NFL capper of all-time and his picks are exclusively on OffshoreInsiders.com Holy hell, College Football GOY among weekend winners. 

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Thursday Night Sharp Betting Report: Saints vs. Cardinals, Troy vs. South Alabama, Virginia vs. GA Tech

Thursday night NFL and college football betting splits, line moves and more. 

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Service out of San Diego is the No. 1 handicapper west of Mississippi, which includes every Las Vegas based handicapper. NBA Game of the Month on Clippers vs. Lakers side. All at OffshoreInsiders.com

New Orleans-Arizona (-2.5,43.5)

You must shop around on the side because +3 can be had. 

🏈Opened -3, 46

🏈Side: 60% of bets, but just 38% of handle on Arizona

🏈OU: 54% of bets and a stunning 80% of money on UNDER

Virginia-GA Tech (-3,47)

🏈Opened -3.5, 46.5

🏈Side: 57% of wagers, but just 43% of cash on GA Tech

🏈OU: 65% of tickets, 56% of money on UNDER

Troy-South Alabama (-3, 47)

🏈Opened -3, 54.5

🏈Side: 56% of bets, 53% of cash on USA

🏈OU: 64% of tickets, 89% of money on UNDER  

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Don’t Worry, Oddsmakers Say Alabama Going to CFP

Alabama was the first “true contender” to lose a game this season, but everyone still expects the Tide to reach the College Football Playoffs for the eighth time in the tournament’s nine-year history.

SportsBetting made Bama a slight favorite over Michigan and Tennessee for the fourth spot on the teams to make the CFP odds below. 

Additionally, there are updated numbers for the next college coach fired. Bryan Harsin, who many think should already be out of a job, is the odds-on favorite.  

Which teams will qualify for the CFP?                      

Georgia                       -500

Ohio State                   -500

Clemson                      -110

Alabama                      +205

Michigan                     +220

Tennessee                   +220

TCU                             +700

Oregon                        +1000

USC                             +1000

MIssissippi                  +1200

UCLA                           +1200

Syracuse                      +2000

How many undefeated teams will qualify for the CFP?                   

Over 1½ Teams                       -140

Under 1½ Teams                     +100

Will the CFP Champion be undefeated?                   

No                   -120

Yes                  -120

Next Head Coach Fired                      

Bryan Harsin (Auburn)                        -110

Jeff Scott (South Florida)                    +350

David Shaw (Stanford)                        +600

Ken Niumatalolo (Navy)                     +700

Kirk Ferentz (Iowa)                             +700

Jimbo Fisher (Texas A&M)                  +950

Neal Brown (West Virginia)                +950

Eli Drinkwitz (Missouri)                       +1000

Pat Fitzgerald (Northwestern)            +1100

Brent Venables (Oklahoma)               +2200

Scott Satterfield (Louisville)                +2200

Marcus Freeman (Notre Dame)         +5000

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NBA Betting Line Moves, Betting Consensus, Top Expert Pick, Inside Info

First full slate of NBA, market report for October 19. 

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🏀Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: Sacramento, Minnesota

🏀Biggest bets based on percentage of money: San Antonio, New York; Denver OVER, Washington OVER 

🏀Largest line moves, opener to current: Memphis -6.5 to -4, Brooklyn -4 to -2.5

🏀Biggest splits. Teams listed have the highest percent of cash compared to bets: Oklahoma City; Minnesota UNDER, Toronto UNDER 

There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale. 

The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets. 

🔥Pistons expected to be drastically improved with Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks, Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duran.

🔥Detroit will be without Marvin Bagley III

🔥Orlando, just 10-31 SU road last year without guards Markelle Fultz and Gary Harris

🔥Cavs made huge offseason acquisition with Donovan Mitchell 

🔥Pels starting 5 did not play together at all in preseason because of injuries

🔥Nets talented but erratic with Ben Simmons, Kyrie Irving 

🔥Jazz rebuilt letting go of Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert and Bojan Bogdanovic

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Oddsmakers Unfazed By Alabama’s Loss and Struggles; Hooker For Heisman Skyrockets

Alabama may take a little tumble in the eyes of the pollsters, but the people who crunch numbers for a living still see the Crimson Tide as the third-best team in college football. 

The top of the CFP Championship odds at SportsBetting  remained unchanged Sunday morning, despite Alabama losing to Tennessee. 

Last week, Ohio State was the favorite (2-1 odds), Georgia was second at +225 and Bama was a close third at +250.

Heisman Trophy Betting

The Tide have slipped on the latest odds board, but still remain well ahead of Clemson and Michigan (both 12-1). 

The Volunteers jumped from 33-1 odds last week to 16-1 odds, currently.

USC went from 20-1 to 75-1 after losing to Utah.

With the week off, CJ Stroud became an even bigger favorite for the Heisman. Below are the latest CFP and Heisman numbers.

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National Championship                     

Georgia                       2-1

Ohio State                   2-1

Alabama                      9-2

Clemson                      12-1

Michigan                     12-1

Tennessee                   16-1

TCU                             50-1

UCLA                           50-1

Oregon                        55-1

Ole Miss                      66-1

Texas                           66-1

USC                             75-1

Oklahoma State          100-1

North Carolina            125-1

Illinois                          150-1

Penn State                  200-1

Syracuse                      200-1

Utah                            200-1

Wake Forest                250-1

Heisman Trophy                     

CJ Stroud                     1-1

Hendon Hooker          5-1

Blake Corum               10-1

Caleb Williams            10-1

Bryce Young                20-1

DJ Uiagalelei               25-1

Thompson-Robinson  25-1

Jahmyr Gibbs              25-1

Stetson Bennett          25-1

Drake Maye                33-1

Spencer Sanders         33-1

Adrian Martinez          40-1

Bo Nix                          50-1

Max Duggan                50-1

Sam Hartman              50-1

Miyan Williams           100-1

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Market Report for Gamblers For Saturday Action: Michigan-Penn State, Alabama-Tennessee, USC-Utah

Market report for Saturday, October 15, 2022

💰💰💰Top expert pick is Joe Duffy and it’s not close. What a day it is off 3-1 overall including MLB dogs Indians, Padres. I am 5-1 in the playoffs and more coming today! Five Wise Guys among nine bets. ACC Total of the Year. Alert! All four MLB sides added for today. After today’s portfolio, I will be 9-1 in the postseason. Let that sink in! Get the picks now at OffshoreInsiders.com

🏈Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: North Texas, New Mexico, EMU; Oklahoma State OVER, Buffalo OVER 

🏈Biggest bets based on percentage of money: New Mexico, Southern Miss, EMU; Army UNDER, Fresno State UNDER

🏈Largest line moves, opener to current: JMU -10.5 to -13.5

🏈Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets: UMass, Bowling Green, Charlotte UNLV; South Alabama UNDER 

Football weather for bettors:

Miami Ohio-Bowling Green winds 16 mph

Penn State-Michigan winds 16 mph

Kent-Toledo winds 16 mph

Northern Illinois-EMU winds 15 mph

There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale. 

The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets. 

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Critical Gambling Info For College Football Betting; For Pro Bettors Only

Betting news and notes for Saturday, October 15 from OffshoreInsiders.com

🔥Despite having the nation’s top defense, allowing just 8 points per game, Illinois is getting 6.5 at home

🔥Kansas likely will be without starting QB Jalen Davis 

🔥Alabama QB Bryce Young, many believe best in country, likely to return 

🔥FSU leading rusher Treshuan Ward is questionable. He has 72 carries for 488 yards

🔥Teams laying at least 4 points despite at least two more losses are 181-137-4. Favors Oklahoma, FAU

🔥Iowa State is young and off three straight losses by a mere combined 11 points

🔥Kentucky star QB and to NFL prospect Will Levis is expected to play, trying to break a two-game losing streak 

🔥UConn will be juiced looking for first three-game SU winning streak since 2015

🔥Auburn-Ole Miss series under four straight by an average of 15.9 points per game 

🔥James Madison top ATS team in record and spread margin going 5-0 by average of 14.5 points per game 

🔥Fresno State is 0-5 failing to cover by an average of -15.1 points per game 

🔥Ohio over 5-1 by 15 points per game 

 💰💰💰Top expert pick:  What a day it is off 3-1 overall including MLB dogs Indians, Padres. I am 5-1 in the playoffs and more coming today! Five Wise Guys among nine bets. ACC Total of the Year. Alert! All four MLB sides added for today. After today’s portfolio, I will be 9-1 in the postseason. Let that sink in! Get the picks now 

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