Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Texas A&M, North Carolina, Arkansas, San Diego State
Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Army, Pittsburgh, Nevada, Ole Miss, Michigan State, San Diego State
Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Oregon, Army, Western Michigan
Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Kansas State +2 to -2, Texas -10 to -8
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It’s odd that no MLB skipper has been canned up this point, but there are more than a few names on the hot seat as we head into the home stretch of the season.
SportsBetting has set the latest odds for who will be the first manager fired in 2021. Luis Rojas tops the list, but there are three other names with better than 5/1 odds.
Additionally, MVP and Cy Young odds have been updated.
Shohei Ohtani is a runaway favorite for AL MVP. Fernando Tatis has the edge in the NL while trying to steer his Padres to a postseason berth.
Both Cy Young races are tight, but Walker Buehler and Lance Lynn are the current frontrunners.
Holy hell. Dogs are going to bark all day long. Start out with Weekday Underdog Game of the Year during the day, then get three MLB Majors for night led by at least one Juicy Lucy. Juicy Lucies are either moneyline or runlines in which we get +140 or more. Get the picks now
Free
Washington-Miami UNDER 7.5 (Gray-Cabrera)
This is the lowest total either team has seen recently and easily Josiah Gray’s lowest total of the year. Sounds like an easy over, right? Nope.
The Nats last seven games have seen six totals of 9 or more, the other 8.5. Miami has had five straight of 8.5 or more. Angle that compares the current total to recent ones and uses that knowledge against them goes under 3129-2412-284. Comparing current total to season average goes under 2020-1536-221.
Josiah Gray hasn’t had a total of less than 8.5 all year. But when a pitcher has a total less than previous starts, it goes under 3155-2392-246. Several combo angles, but one that combines pitcher and team ones goes under 424-257-35 including 66-28-1 this season.
Orioles 5-32 -24.1 units off 4 straight losses
Rockies 4-27 -24.4 units road versus opponent averaging .6 or fewer errors per game
Marlins 9-33 -21.5 units after scoring 2 or fewer runs
Don’t look now, but we’re less than two months away from the start of the 2021-22 NBA regular season.
SportsBetting has set over/under victory totals for every team in the league, and the sportsbook has also assigned odds for each squad’s playoff chances. All of the data is below, as well as implied probabilities for the playoff odds.
If the regular season win total projections hold true (and we all know they won’t), these would be your 2021-22 NBA Playoffs qualifiers.
East playoff teams (Seeds 1-8): Nets, Bucks, 76ers, Heat, Hawks, Celtics, Bulls/Pacers/Knicks (a combination of two of the last three)
West playoff teams (Seeds 1-8): Lakers, Suns, Jazz, Warriors, Mavericks, Nuggets, Clippers, Trail Blazers
Brooklyn Nets
Over/Under 55.5 wins
Make Playoffs: Yes -10000, No +2500
(Odds imply a 99.0% chance team will make playoffs)
Milwaukee Bucks
Over/Under 54.5
Make Playoffs: Yes -10000, No +2500
(Odds imply a 99.0% chance team will make playoffs)
Los Angeles Lakers
Over/Under 52.5
Make Playoffs: Yes -3300, No +1400
(Odds imply a 97.1% chance team will make playoffs)
Phoenix Suns
Over/Under 51.5
Make Playoffs: Yes -2500, No +1200
(Odds imply a 96.2% chance team will make playoffs)
Philadelphia 76ers
Over/Under 51.5
Make Playoffs: Yes -2000, No +1000
(Odds imply a 95.2% chance team will make playoffs)
Utah Jazz
Over/Under 51.5
Make Playoffs: Yes -5000, No +1800
(Odds imply a 98.0% chance team will make playoffs)
Golden State Warriors
Over/Under 48.5
Make Playoffs: Yes -600, No +400
(Odds imply an 85.7% chance team will make playoffs)
Miami Heat
Over/Under 48.5
Make Playoffs: Yes -1100, No +650
(Odds imply a 91.7% chance team will make playoffs)
Dallas Mavericks
Over/Under 47.5
Make Playoffs: Yes -650, No +450
(Odds imply an 86.7% chance team will make playoffs)
Denver Nuggets
Over/Under 47.5
Make Playoffs: Yes -650, No +450
(Odds imply an 86.7% chance team will make playoffs)
Atlanta Hawks
Over/Under 46.5
Make Playoffs: Yes -550, No +375
(Odds imply an 84.6% chance team will make playoffs)
Boston Celtics
Over/Under 46.5
Make Playoffs: Yes -550, No +375
(Odds imply an 84.6 chance team will make playoffs)
Los Angeles Clippers
Over/Under 44.5
Make Playoffs: Yes -280, No +220
(Odds imply a 73.7% chance team will make playoffs)
Portland Trail Blazers
Over/Under 43.5
Make Playoffs: Yes -240, No +190
(Odds imply a 70.6% chance team will make playoffs)
Chicago Bulls
Over/Under 42.5
Make Playoffs: Yes -155, No +125
(Odds imply a 60.8% chance team will make playoffs)
Indiana Pacers
Over/Under 42.5
Make Playoffs: Yes -175, No +145
(Odds imply a 63.6% chance team will make playoffs)
New York Knicks
Over/Under 42.5
Make Playoffs: Yes -155, No +125
(Odds imply a 60.8% chance team will make playoffs)
Memphis Grizzlies
Over/Under 41.5
Make Playoffs: Yes -115, No -115
(Odds imply a 50.0% chance team won’t make playoffs)
New Orleans Pelicans
Over/Under 39.5
Make Playoffs: Yes +160, No -200
(Odds imply a 66.7% chance team won’t make playoffs)
Charlotte Hornets
Over/Under 38.5
Make Playoffs: Yes +180, No -220
(Odds imply a 68.8% chance team won’t make playoffs)
Toronto Raptors
Over/Under 36.5
Make Playoffs: Yes +275, No -350
(Odds imply a 77.8% chance team won’t make playoffs)
Sacramento Kings
Over/Under 36.5
Make Playoffs: Yes +350, No -500
(Odds imply an 83.3% chance team won’t make playoffs)
Minnesota Timberwolves
Over/Under 33.5
Make Playoffs: Yes +550, No -900
(Odds imply a 90.0% chance team won’t make playoffs)
Washington Wizards
Over/Under 33.5
Make Playoffs: Yes +450, No -700
(Odds imply an 87.5% chance team won’t make playoffs)
San Antonio Spurs
Over/Under 28.5
Make Playoffs: Yes +1200, No -2500
(Odds imply a 96.2% chance team won’t make playoffs)
Cleveland Cavaliers
Over/Under 26.5
Make Playoffs: Yes +2500, No -10000
(Odds imply a 99.0% chance team won’t make playoffs)
Houston Rockets
Over/Under 26.5
Make Playoffs: Yes +1800, No -5000
(Odds imply a 98.0% chance team won’t make playoffs)
Detroit Pistons
Over/Under 25.5
Make Playoffs: Yes +2500, No -10000
(Odds imply a 99.0% chance team won’t make playoffs)
Orlando Magic
Over/Under 23.5
Make Playoffs: Yes +2500, No -10000
(Odds imply a 99.0% chance team won’t make playoffs)
Oklahoma City Thunder
Over/Under 22.5
Make Playoffs: Yes +2500, No -10000
(Odds imply a 99.0% chance team won’t make playoffs)
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MLB free pick from Joe Duffy.
ARIZONA (GILBERT +172) Colorado (Gomber) at Bovada
Anti-splits angle in which we go with road team with much worse away winning percentage than the home team home winning percentage is +154.64. Arizona 6-1 the last seven. Yes, they are were at home, but this is a bad team, clearly not “quitting” as some people foolishly think and carrying momentum making our super system stronger. They were dogs of 140 or more in every game in that seven game stretch. They are hitting a whopping .366 last seven games with an .855 OPS. Our power line says Arizona should only be getting 140, which is a 3.8 percent edge.
Scorephone style trends report for the games of Sunday, August 28, 2021. These are from OffshoreInsiders.com, home of the world’s best sports picks. Betting ATS, over-under, and moneyline angles for Hawaii-UCLA, UConn-Fresno St., Nebraska-Illinois, Texas El Paso-New Mexico St.
Nebraska-Illinois
Nebraska 2-6 favorites ats
Nebraska under 6 straight road
Illinois 3-7 overall ats; 4-13 on Saturdays
Though Illinois 5-6 SU as underdogs on Saturdays, they are up 31.43 units on moneyline
Includes +22.1 units to Wisconsin and 5.18 to Nebraska
Hawaii-UCLA
Hawaii 14-9 SU last 23 for +5.38 units on moneyline
UTEP-New Mexico State
UTEP 12-5 favorites but 8-23 on turf both records ats
New Mexico State 5-16 underdogs ats
Favorite 7-0 in series ats
UTEP 3-16 SU run -12.37 moneyline
Connecticut-Fresno State
UConn has lost nine in a row SU on moneyline
Fresno only 5-10 SU on Saturdays -8.34 units
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MLB
KANSAS CITY (MINOR +141) St. Louis (Wainwright)
Many of our angles say when the oddsmakers say it is their most winnable game in a while to go with what the oddsmakers are telling you. Yes, Royals have pulled off consecutive upsets, but six straight games they’ve been underdogs of 180 or more and eight straight of 155 or more. An angle that says to go with underdogs in a game in which the oddsmakers give them the most respect in recent play is 271-202 for 98.21 and an ROI of 20.6. Teams off consecutive wins of 180 or more are 45-42 +31.92 units and 36.3 ROI as long as they are not home dogs. Accuscore has KC +7.1 percent value.
64 percent of bets and 84 percent of money on Steelers.
Steelers QB rotation: Mason Rudolph, Josh Dobbs, Dwayne Haskins. Haskins is looking very good in training camp and expected to battle for the No. 2 spot behind Ben Roethlisberger
Steelers OL is completely rebuilt after Maurkice Pouncey retired and Matt Feiler left
Pittsburgh made coaching changes on offensive side of ball and drafted Najee Harris in first round to improve running game
Cowboys QB rotation: Garrett Gilbert, Cooper Rush, and Ben DiNucci
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Free
LA ANGELS (OHTANI -1.5 -105) Texas (Allard) at Bovada
It is one of the strongest angles in gambling history in using odds relative to recent numbers weaponizing the oddsmakers knowledge against them is up four digits based on total net units won at one-unit per bet minus juice. Taking advantage of oddsmaker same series adjustments is up +752.22. When both apply, it is +791.52 units and ROI is stronger on the road. Oddsmakers tell you a team has their best chance to win a game in recent play is +378.38.
Texas better home record than Angels road mark but anytime a team is a large away favorites under specific situations that apply in this game, they are a very good play, especially on runline. Ohtani last three starts 1.35 ERA, .700 WHIP. Allard last three 13.14 ERA, 2.038 WHIP. Texas lost seven straight with him, all by two or more, all Allard decisions.
Foxsheets has estimated line at -238.
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