Power of every legitimate sports service pick, computer ranking, known syndicates behind us, we give you the highest rated bets from the top sources in their highest rated sports is the MasterLockLine and the start is unprecedented.
Entire card 3 ET or later. 6 at 6 ET or later, 5 at 7 ET or later. 2-1-1 in college hardwood yesterday, makes MLL 34-7 this season, building on the best start in history of betting. 22-9 overall, 35-7 all basketball picks! Get the picks now
NBA
OKLAHOMA CITY +5 Houston
This line is all over the place as James Harden’s status in doubt because he may have broken Covid protocal. Road teams in revenge of playoff elimination are 62-37 unless they are big favorites. The fact it’s a 62.6 percent bet even though it’s 34-65 SU is telling. Of course it is another example of the stupidity of the inductive, “Just go with the team you think will win outright, because they will likely cover.” But it does make sense. The team with the chip on their shoulder will fight to the end, while the team that won the playoff series will happily escape with a home win.
True, with Harden controversy, I could not make it a premium pick, but a strong bet at this number. I bet at Bovada
Ohio State +7 Clemson -7 Over/Under: 65 Moneyline: Ohio State +250, Clemson -300
The previous high for a CFP spread was at the 2019 Orange Bowl where Alabama was a 14.5-point against Oklahoma.
List of CFP Spreads (sorted by biggest spread) 2020/21 Rose Bowl: Alabama (-19) vs. Notre Dame 2018/19 Orange Bowl: Alabama (-14.5) vs. Oklahoma 2019/20 Peach Bowl: LSU (-12.5) vs. Oklahoma 2016/17 Peach Bowl: Alabama (-12.5) vs. Washington 2018/19 Cotton Bowl: Clemson (-10.5) vs. Notre Dame 2015/16 Cotton Bowl: Alabama (-10) vs. Michigan State 2014/15 Sugar Bowl: Alabama (-7.5) vs. Ohio State 2014/15 Rose Bowl: Oregon (-7.5) vs. Florida State 2020/21 Sugar Bowl: Clemson (-7) vs. Ohio State
– Favorites are 9-3 straight up and 8-4 against the spread in semifinal history – Favorites are 10-7 straight up and 8-9 against the spread in CFP history
The totals for this year’s two CFP semis are the fifth and sixth highest, respectively.
List of CFP Totals (sorted by highest totals) 2018/19 Orange Bowl: Alabama vs. Oregon (80.5) 2019/20 Peach Bowl: LSU vs. Oklahoma (75) 2014/15 Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Florida State (74) 2014/15 CFP NCG: Oregon vs. Ohio State (72.5) 2020/21 Rose Bowl: Alabama vs. Notre Dame (65.5) 2020/21 Sugar Bowl: Clemson vs. Ohio State (65) 2019/20 Fiesta Bowl: Clemson vs. Ohio State (63.5) 2017/18 Rose Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Georgia (62.5) 2015/16 Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Oklahoma (61.5)
– Overs are 9-8 in CFP history – Overs are 5-7 in CFP semifinal history
History is not on Notre Dame’s side as the biggest upset in CFP history was just 7.5 points.
List of CFP Upsets (sorted by biggest upset) 2014/15 Sugar Bowl: Ohio State (+7.5) over Alabama 2016/17 CFP NCG: Clemson (+6.5) over Alabama 2014/15 CFP NCG: Ohio State (+6) vs. Oregon 2018/19 CFP NCG: Clemson (+5) over Alabama 2015/16 Orange Bowl: Clemson (+3.5) over Oklahoma 2016/17 Fiesta Bowl: Clemson (+1) over Ohio State
In terms of CFP National Championship odds, Alabama is the odds-on favorite.
The MasterLockLine is as hot as it has been since restart. If you buy picks elsewhere, you will never experience as 23-4 run. Winning since 1980 on the scorephones, two college basketball and two college football winners tonight. Get the picks now
Free pick from Joe Duffy is:
Montana State-Washington State UNDER 133.5
Washington State is thinned by injuries with upperclassmen Aljaz Kunc and Tony Miller both likely out. Head coach Kyle Smith has slowed the pace, knowing he can’t go deep into bench. Kunc averages 9.7 ppg and kept defenses honest with his presence down low.
The Cougars are 12th in the nation in field goal defense. This will slow down a Montana State offense that will see its toughest test. WSU is 254th in offensive efficiency based on points per 100 possessions. I bet at Bet Now
I was insanely thrilled to get sports back after the pandemic shutdown. As the adage goes, be be careful what you ask for, as the all-time outlier occurred. I went in my worst slump in 32 years as a handicapper and several years before that as a gambler. Write it up to being 2020? Yes-but nuanced. The devil is in the details.
I’ve always affirmed that bookmakers and squares loathe uncertainty, but sharps exploit it. But that’s because of the “predictable unpredictability” of sports betting. But in unprecedented times, the unpredictability was…unpredictable for once. The world being upended meant tested and confirmed regression to the mean and other models lacked the normal conditions to apply.
But why do the biggest slumps I’ve ever had continually, and I do mean always and forever get followed by even greater winning streaks? Do I have a guardian angel? Nope. We stay the course. When squares profit short-term, the books know they will double-down on same techniques—generally favorites and overs, though it is a little more complex than that. Books have to adjust, only strengthening the sharpest pro bettor angles in a freakish decline.
A great quote from It’s a Wonderful Life “Potter isn’t selling. Potter’s buying! And why? Because we’re panicky and he’s not. That’s why.” Not surprisingly, we have a lot more demonstrated winning systems favoring unders in NFL. If you are a long-term client, you’ve cashed in for many years with us. The first four weeks of NFL 2020 saw all games over 36-22-5 for greater than 62 percent. Books were saying both privately to me and in public articles, they can’t keep getting parched by overs, so they shaded the lines. We didn’t panic and after a 7-7 week 5, 56 percent of NFL games have gone under. That’s not our bets, that’s just overall in the league.
And our top systems have been hitting over 60 percent since markets righted themselves—again. Just as they always do.
But Joeybagodonuts is still chasing his losses, forever hoping he can replicate the magic of the squares getting the big upper hand early. When we say the winning streaks always have outnumbered and outlasted the rare losing streaks, it’s from decades of experience and wisdom as to why it happens.
The biggest lesson of 2020 for sports bettors is when you have proven metrics, you need to persevere. Don’t jump off a ship that has scientifically proven it won’t sink. You will only drown by leaping overboard.
I’ll bet Mr. Potter was a shrewd gambler.
The author, Joe Duffy CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com is enjoying punishing the bookies for getting a rare upper hand in the early weeks of football. So are the other services on said site, LateInfo topping the list.
OffshoreInsiders.com CEO Joe Duffy breaks down key intel for week 15 NFL betting.
Road teams on grass off a game in which they were held to single-digit points and less than 125 rushing yards are 75-24-3 on grass. This favors New England over Miami
Teams averaging less than 1.7 turnovers per game are 37-5-1 when off a game as home underdogs, facing a team averaging at least 12.75 first downs per game. This favors Detroit over Tennessee
Atlanta Falcons all-world WR Julio Jones is questionable missing practice Thursday
Cowboys star RB Zeke Elliot questionable-to-probable after missing practice ThursdayTea leaves say mostly a precaution, so we think he’ll play
Panthers superstar RB Christian McCaffrey doubtfulPanthers play Saturday night
Giants QB Daniel Jones is questionableSources say a slight lean in the probable direction
Redskins RB Antonio Smith and QB Alex Smith are both questionable
Bengals RB Joe Mixon remains out
Top expert pick is from Joe Duffy. 16-8 NFL. Three college football winners Friday led by two Wise Guys, including Friday Night Game of the Year. Saturday, it is five college football led by three Wise Guys. Sunday, seven NFL Wise Guy bets as we build on our run. Get the picks now
Top sportsbook consensus, percentage of:
✅Bets: Cleveland (73), Houston (71)
✅Money: San Francisco (95), Tampa (89), LA Rams (86)
Biggest line moves at top books such as MyBookie NFL live lines, latest odds (lookahead opener followed by current): Tampa -1.5 to -6, Rams -13.5 to -17.5, Minnesota -6 down to -3, Seattle -3 to -5.5
Best teams to bet on based on margin of cover
Team
ATS Record
ATS margin
Miami
10-3
+7.5
Washington
8-5
+5
Pittsburgh
8-5
+3.5
Best teams to bet against based on margin of cover
Team
ATS Record
ATS margin
NY Jets
4-9
-16.2
Dallas
3-10
-6
LA Chargers
6-7
-5.2
Detroit
6-7
-4
Biggest over teams
Team
OU Record
OU margin
Cleveland
8-5
+6.7
Tennessee
9-3-1
+6.3
Las Vegas
9-3-1
+6.1
Biggest under teams
Team
OU Record
OU margin
NY Giants
3-10
-5.3
LA Rams
4-9
-3.8
Miami
5-8
-3.2
Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer.
Joe Duffy has three college football winners Friday led by two Wise Guys, including Friday Night Game of the Year. Saturday, it is five college football led by three Wise Guys. Sunday, seven NFL Wise Guy bets as we build on our run. Get it at OffshoreInsiders.com
Free college basketball winner from Joe Duffy for Wednesday.
OHIO STATE +5 Purdue
Oddsmakers overreact to E.J. Liddell probably being out. One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found them covering at a rate 64 percent, with O-H winning by a point. Another top model has our side covering 59.8 percent. KenPom has Purdue winning by just a point. Of course I am concerned about the injury, but look for Buckeyes to make zone adjustments and stay within number at Bet Now
Kyle Trask was the overwhelming favorite to take home Heisman honors just a few weeks ago. Now, Trask trails the quarterback he’ll oppose next week in the SEC Championship.
Mac Jones is the Heisman favorite with -200 (or 1-2) odds at SportsBetting
Trask is second on the board at 3-1 while Alabama wideout Devonta Smith is ahead of the other QBs from the nation’s top teams at 10-1.
The preseason favorite, Trevor Lawrence, has seen his odds fall to 14-1.
Florida’s loss to LSU no doubt hurt Trask’s Heisman chances, and the Gators saw their national championship odds take a hit as well. Their odds went from 12-1 last week to 80-1, currently.
If Florida can somehow beat Alabama as a 16.5-point underdog this weekend, Trask and the Gators could be back in the Heisman and CFP hunt.
Below are odds for the CFP Championship, Heisman Trophy and conference championship games.
Joe Duffy has a free winning pick for tonight. Duffy exploits same systems Billy Walters betting syndicate does. Saturday, CBS Total of the Year, ESPN Big Ten Total of the Year among eight Wise Guys. We are 10-5 NFL and so much more winning ahead. Six NFL winners for this Sunday at OffshoreInsiders.com
Free college basketball pick is:
IOWA -13 Iowa State
Iowa State is a bad team and has nobody to match up with Luka Garza, the top player in the country and Iowa big man. Jalen Coleman-Lands is the only decent athlete on ISU, but he’s 6-4 and can’t keep up with the speed of Iowa. Iowa State was losing by three at halftime to Arkansas Pine-Bluff, one of the worst teams in the country. They were beaten at home by a middling South Dakota State team. Now they take on an Iowa team outscoring foes by 27.8 ppg including beating North Carolina by 13, tonight’s spread.
Iowa State has no true point guard since lost Tyrese Haliburton. They didn’t replace his scoring either. Iowa will crush them with speed, then beat them down low with gross mismatch with Garza.
One of the dumbest myths is sports is the adage to take the double-digits in big rivalries. Pure balderdash. It means Iowa will be very focused against inferior team and have no compunction to run up the score against a recruiting rival. What’s more effective in recruiting than saying don’t consider that program, we crushed them by 30? We bet at GTBets
As of Saturday morning all nine football and basketball games are available, CBS Total of the Year, ESPN Big Ten Total of the Year among seven Wise Guys. Wise Guy plays from Joe Duffy are the single strongest bet in gambling. Named plays are the bane of every bookie. Two college basketball winnersGet the picks now
Momentum angle that says go with a team off a blowout win versus a defense that got lit up last game is 135-65-5. Fading poor first half teams that are playing at home if they are off a high-scoring game is 622-462-21. When both apply, it is 16-5-1. Big conference away favorites have been a nice play since 2009 at 145-89-6 including 61-34-2 at home. One of our simulators has the Tide covering 58.5 percent of the, just 38.8 for Hogs, with a few pushes mixed in.
Great night winning picks. Wise Guy among three winners at 7 ET or later. We have a Wise Guy in which our top model has them covering nearly 70 percent and another power ratings has this underdog winning outright and covering by 7.5. Get Joe Duffy’s portfolio at OffshoreInsiders.com
Richmond covers an impressive 66 percent of simulations on our top model, winning 83-69. Yes, I have said many times I’ll take talent over experience. However, in 2020 where teams have limited practice time, the fact the Spiders are a veteran time is huge. They run a modified Princeton offense, which requires patience, experience, faith in teammates. They have been running it with precision as a unit for some time. They have five guys averaging double figures. This is even more important this year because it shows they can play well as cohesive unit.
It takes similar qualities to defense, but Northern Iowa has had their share of guys in and out of lineup. A.J Green is their best player and is doubtful. They are also without Antwan Kimmons and Tytan Anderson. Yes, they got Trae Barlow back, but just his second game back and first against a quality foe. He came back against a D2 foe. He missed time because of Covid.
Jacob Gilyard is lightning quick for Spiders and poor defense of Northern Iowa. They have nobody to guard him. Austin Phyfe likely to guard Grant Golden and he’s horrible.
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