Free winning pick from Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com

Ravens (-7.5)-Eagles

• Baltimore is 4-1 SU including 2-0 road, Philly 1-3-1 SU, 0-1-1 home
• Sets up anti-splits angle about fading road teams who have been better on road than home team has been at home is 142-108-11 (Eagles)
• Eagles 1-4 ats -5.8 but sets up a great regression to the mean angle about betting on bad teams 194-116-13
• Yes Jackson is one of the top road QBs, but you can’t bet retroactively and 7.5 points on the road is a ton
• Eagles allowed to have about 6,000 fans
• Admittedly our power ratings, two say the line is about right; another simulator likes Ravens and big road favorites have been good plays in recent years
• Probably short of premium play

FREE: EAGLES

Bet NFL live lines, latest odds

The bookies still believe Dallas can get it done with Andy Dalton. Or maybe they just don’t have faith in any of the other teams from the feeble NFC East.

The Cowboys were -150 favorites to capture the division going into Week 4, and their odds only slightly worsened as they move forward without Dak Prescott.

Somewhat surprisingly, the Cowboys still have relatively low Super Bowl odds, coming in at 25-1.

Despite their loss yesterday, the Chiefs remain Super Bowl LV favorites. The Ravens and Seahawks round out the top 3 on the board.

All odds are current from SportsBetting a licensed online sportsbook in Colorado.

Division odds –

AFC East
Bills -265
Patriots +230
Dolphins +2200
Jets +10000

AFC North
Ravens -175
Steelers +230
Browns +500
Bengals +10000

AFC South
Titans -110
Colts +120
Texans +800
Jaguars +5000

AFC West
Chiefs -1000
Raiders +600
Chargers +2500
Broncos +5000

NFC East
Cowboys -125
Eagles +120
Redskins +1200
Giants +3500

NFC North
Packers -330
Bears +340
Vikings +1500
Lions +2200

NFC South
Saints +100
Buccaneers +130
Panthers +500
Falcons +6600

NFC West
Seahawks -165
Rams +300
Cardinals +600
49ers +1000

Super Bowl odds –

Kansas City Chiefs 4-1
Baltimore Ravens 5-1
Seattle Seahawks 8-1
Green Bay Packers 10-1
New Orleans Saints 11-1
Pittsburgh Steelers 12-1
Buffalo Bills 14-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16-1
Los Angeles Rams 18-1
Dallas Cowboys 25-1
Indianapolis Colts 25-1
New England Patriots 25-1
Cleveland Browns 28-1
Tennessee Titans 28-1
San Francisco 49ers 33-1
Chicago Bears 40-1
Las Vegas Raiders 40-1
Philadelphia Eagles 50-1
Minnesota Vikings 60-1
Arizona Cardinals 60-1
Carolina Panthers 66-1
Los Angeles Chargers 80-1
Houston Texans 100-1
Detroit Lions 125-1
Miami Dolphins 150-1
Denver Broncos 150-1
Atlanta Falcons 250-1
Cincinnati Bengals 250-1
Jacksonville Jaguars 300-1
Washington 2500-1
New York Giants 3500-1
New York Jets 5000-1

AFC Odds
Kansas City Chiefs 2-1
Baltimore Ravens 5-2
New England Patriots 12-1
Houston Texans 60-1
Cleveland Browns 14-1
Los Angeles Chargers 45-1
Tennessee Titans 14-1
Pittsburgh Steelers 13-2
Buffalo Bills 8-1
Indianapolis Colts 12-1
Las Vegas Raiders 22-1
Denver Broncos 75-1
New York Jets 250-1
Cincinnati Bengals 125-1
Jacksonville Jaguars 150-1
Miami Dolphins 75-1

NFC Odds
New Orleans Saints 11-1
San Francisco 49ers 14-1
Philadelphia Eagles 22-1
Dallas Cowboys 10-1
Green Bay Packers 4-1
Seattle Seahawks 3-1
Los Angeles Rams 17-2
Chicago Bears 18-1
Minnesota Vikings 25-1
Arizona Cardinals 18-1
Atlanta Falcons 125-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-1
New York Giants 200-1
Detroit Lions 55-1
Carolina Panthers 28-1
Washington 125-1

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Joe Duffy already has several NFL plays up at press time at OffshoreInsiders.com

Las Vegas-Kansas City

• Vegas is 3-1 ats covering by an average of 5.4 points per game, second best mark in NFL

Mami-San Francisco 

• Jimmy Garappolo is likely to play for 49ers as starting QB was questionable
  • 4 TDs, 0 INT
• Niners RB Raheem Mostert is questionable
  • 148 rushing, 110 receiving yards
• Niners WR Deebo Samuel is questionable
  • 3 receptions for 35 yards

Indianapolis-Cleveland

• Colts are 3-1 ats covering by 5.1 points per game
• Browns are the top over team based on margin of cover, going over by 14.2 points per game, going over 3-1
• Browns RB Nick Chubb is out

Carolina-Atlanta 

• Falcons WR Julio Jones game-time decision
  • 15 receptions for 213 yards

Minnesota-Seattle 

• Seattle is one of just two teams in NFL that are 4-0 ats, covering by 5 points per game

Arizona-Jets 

• Jets are 0-4 ats failing to cover by -10.2 points per game, both worst in league
• Joe Flacco starts at QB for Jets
• Arizona is the top public consensus bet with 67 percent of wagers on them

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Rams-Washington

• Terry McLaurin WR is probable
  • 26 receptions for 387 yards
• Kyle Allen starts at QB for Washington
• 63 percent chance of rain

Jacksonville-Houston

• Houston is 0-4 ats failing by an average of -7.2 points per game

NYG-Dallas

• Dallas is one of three 0-4 ats team, missing by an average of 5 points per game
• Dallas has gone over 3-1, with a second in the league over margin of 13.1 points per game

Cincinnati-Baltimore 

• Bengals RB Joe Mixon is questionable
  • 315 rushing yards, two touchdowns, 88 receiving yards plus another TD
• The biggest totals consensus is on this game over with 68 percent of bets on such
• 43 percent chance of rain

VIRGINIA -7.5 NC State at GTBets

• Third of four straight road games for UVA
• Off big upset at Pitt, play at Clemson next week
• Home favorites versus an opponent off conference win as large underdog are 122-63-2
• Virginia’s defenses numbers much better than points per game would suggest
• Allow just 2.8 yards per rush teams normally allowing 3.7 and 5.5 yards per play to 5.8
  • Too many turnovers, but these are correctable

Free pick: VIRGINIA -7.5

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. Saturday, two Wise Guys and two Majors up already. Two NFL winners posted as well at OffshoreInsiders.com

With the NLCS set, oddsmakers were quick to post a line for the series, and they’ve made the Dodgers sizable favorites against Atlanta.

The initial series line from SportsBetting set L.A. as a 1:2 favorite.

NLCS Odds –

Atlanta Braves    +160    (8-5)
Los Angeles Dodgers    -200    (1-2)

In a hypothetical ALCS matchup, the Yankees would be -180 favorites over the Astros (+160). In the other scenario, the Rays would be -155 favorites over the Astros (+135).

The Dodgers started the MLB postseason as World Series favorites, and after sweeping San Diego, nothing has changed.

World Series Odds (will update after tonight’s game)

Los Angeles Dodgers     +175     (7-4)
New York Yankees     +375     (15-4)
Atlanta Braves     +400     (4-1) 
Tampa Bay Rays     +500     (5-1)
Houston Astros     +500     (5-1)

SportsBetting is also offering odds on the exact World Series matchup and outcome. The numbers suggest that the Dodgers will defeat the Yankees, or vice versa, in what would be a dream matchup for the league.

Exact World Series Outcome
Dodgers defeat Yankees     +550     (11-2)
Yankees defeat Dodgers     +550     (11-2)
Dodgers defeat Astros     +700     (7-1)
Dodgers defeat Rays     +700     (7-1)
Rays defeat Dodgers     +700     (7-1)
Astros defeat Dodgers     +750     (15-2)
Yankees defeat Braves     +1100     (11-1)
Braves defeat Yankees     +1100     (11-1)
Braves defeat Astros     +1400     (14-1)
Braves defeat Rays     +1400     (14-1)
Astros defeat Braves     +1400     (14-1)
Rays defeat Braves     +1400     (14-1)

It’s early, but Joe Duffy already has a big weekend portfolio up at OffshoreInsiders.com

MISSISSIPPI STATE +2 Kentucky

If you listen to VSIN no doubt you’ve heard them rightfully tout a “short road dog” angle. We know the software they use, BetLabs. Rest assured, it’s good software as many of my top systems originated there. But I perfect on a database that not only goes back much further, but also has enormous versatility. Using  with a Boolean algebra, I can eliminate times there are conflicting systems. Because college football has more systems pointing to home favorites than any other sport, this feature is invaluable. Actually, BetLabs also has this, but I still love the versatility elsewhere. Regardless, my turbo-enhanced version is 921-693-44. A subsystem takes it to 58 percent with a large sample size of 660-477-32.

One of our simulations gives Miss State 53.5-44.4 percent chance of covering at +2. Another a tiny edge to Miss State. Best power ratings have MSU winning by one. Granted, none of the simulations emphatically say the Bulldogs, but the fact all three at least lean that way is significant, which is why the line dropped.

Miss State wins at LSU +14.5, then loses home to Arkansas -16.5. Mike Leach is predictably unpredictable, so off a home loss, hitting the road, is when they will play best. Star RB Kylin Hill, who can also catch out of backfield. He was hurt early in loss last week.

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Storylines continue to be abundant in the NFL following three weeks of action.

As usual, oddsmakers have turned some of those talking points into wagers. People can bet on a number of props such as who will be the next quarterback benched, when Jalen Hurts will make his first start (if at all), Mitchell Trubisky’s future, 0-3 teams qualifying for the playoffs and much more.

Odds from SportsBetting are subject to change and your readers can view real-time numbers via the link below.

Week 4 NFL Props:

Next QB benched (non-injury related)

Sam Darnold       3-1    (+300)

Ryan Fitzpatrick  4-1   (+400)

Justin Herbert    5-1    (+500)

Daniel Jones      6-1     (+600)

Gardner Minshew         8-1     (+800)

Kirk Cousins      10-1   (+1000)

Nick Foles          12-1   (+1200)

Teddy Bridgewater 12-1         (+1200)

Baker Mayfield              14-1   (+1400)

Philip Rivers      16-1   (+1600)

Cam Newton     33-1   (+3300)

Which week will Jalen Hurts make first start?

Weeks 4-7      +400

Weeks 8-11    +250

Weeks 12-14  +225

Weeks 15-17  +150

Will Carson Wentz be benched during regular season? (non-injury related)

Yes  +200

No   -300

Will Mitchell Trubisky start another game? (non-injury related)

Yes  +250

No   -400

Will Mitchell Trubisky start for any team during 2021 season?

Yes  +200

No   -300

Will Tyrod Taylor start another game? (non-injury related)

Yes  +110

No   -150

Will any 0-3 team qualify for playoffs?

Yes  +450

No   -750

Will the Eagles make the playoffs?

Yes  +300

No   -500

Will the Texans make the playoffs?

Yes  +550

No   -1000

Will the Vikings make the playoffs?

Yes  +600

No   -1200

Which team will win a game first?

Jets       -300

Giants  +200

Will Jets and Broncos have new coach in Week 1 of 2021 season?

Yes  +100

No   -140

Will the Chiefs go 16-0?

Yes  +900

No   -2000

Winning picks at OffshoreInsiders.com

The Big 12 is perceived to be so feeble that the oddsmakers still have Oklahoma listed as the conference favorite despite two early-season losses.

Undefeated Oklahoma State is a close second on the board while Texas and Iowa State are third and fourth, respectively.

For the two major conferences waiting to play, USC is listed as the early frontrunner for the Pac-12 title and Ohio State is the odds-on favorite in the Big Ten.

SportsBetting  a licensed sportsbook in Colorado, has the latest odds for all of the Power 5 conferences, which you can find below.

ACC Odds –

Clemson: 1-5
Notre Dame: 5-1
Miami: 8-1
North Carolina: 10-1
Virginia Tech: 18-1
Pittsburgh: 33-1
Virginia: 40-1
Louisville: 75-1
NC State: 100-1
Wake Forest: 125-1
Boston College: 150-1
Florida State: 200-1
Duke: 250-1
Georgia Tech: 250-1
Syracuse: 250-1

Big 12 Odds –

Oklahoma: 2-1
Oklahoma State: 3-2
Texas: 3-1
Iowa State: 7-2
TCU: 9-1
Baylor: 14-1
West Virginia: 16-1
Kansas State: 18-1
Texas Tech: 150-1
Kansas: 750-1

Big Ten Odds –

Ohio State: 2-3
Wisconsin: 8-1
Penn State: 11-1
Michigan: 12-1
Minnesota: 28-1
Iowa: 35-1
Northwestern: 45-1
Nebraska: 45-1
Indiana: 75-1
Michigan State: 130-1
Purdue: 140-1
Illinois: 500-1
Maryland: 500-1
Rutgers: 1500-1

SEC Odds –

Alabama: 1-2
Florida: 5-2
Georgia: 3-1
Tennessee: 20-1
Auburn: 25-1
Texas A&M: 25-1
LSU: 33-1
Mississippi State: 33-1
Kentucky: 66-1
Ole Miss: 150-1
Arkansas: 250-1
South Carolina: 250-1
Missouri: 500-1
Vanderbilt: 750-1

Pac-12 Odds –

USC: 3-2
Oregon: 2-1
Washington: 6-1
Arizona State: 9-1
California: 9-1
Utah: 9-1
Stanford: 12-1
UCLA: 12-1
Washington State: 33-1
Arizona: 100-1
Colorado: 100-1
Oregon State: 100-1

Get the winners at OffshoreInsiders.com

Big weekend up at OffshoreInsiders.com Joe Duffy has a free pick on:

MINNESOTA +3.5 Houston

This is the first time Houston is favorite this season. Fading favorites that have usually been in underdogs role is 153-93-12 including 18-4 the last 22.  That being said, they’ve played KC, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh. Go with the much more disappointing defense based on delta points allowed is 331-244-14. Delta points allowed is how many points they allowed relative to the oddsmakers posted team total or implied total based on the odds and spread.

Winless teams that blew at least an eight point lead the previous week are 49-24-1. Vikings led 24-12 last week against Titans.

Fading terrible teams (based on winning percentage) as favorites are 153-108-8. Vikings distraction as Titans players tested positive? If anything, just something to rally around. One simulator has Minnesota covering 52 percent, as a three-point win projected. Another has Minnesota covering 57.3 percent of time. Another power ratings has Minnesota -1.5 and projected to win by two.  We bet at GTBets